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Gopher Invitational

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Women 11 10 21
2 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Gold 16 36 52
3 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 30 30 60
4 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 39 31 70
5 Northwestern University Northwestern University White 45 27 72
6 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Gold 39 43 82
7 Northwestern University Northwestern University Purple 49 54 103
8 Lawrence University Lawrence University Vikings 67 57 124
9 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon 64 80 144
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Women 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 11 Emily Oltrogge '15
Emily Johnson '16
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Gold 1 2 3 1 2 2 3 2 16 Isabella Hamilton '17
Ella Mcclarnon '18
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 6 4 2 3 7 3 1 4 30 Travis Cottle '15 [1-8]
Emily Vogt '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Caroline Spiezio '17 [3-4, 7-8]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Gold 5 6 4 4 3 5 7 5 39 Andre Deriaz '18
Jordyn Noennig '17
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 7 3 5 6 4 4 4 6 39 Hannah Noll '15
Brittni Begale '16
Northwestern University Northwestern University White 4 5 7 5 6 6 5 7 45 Charles Tokowitz '17
Madeline Deysine '16
Northwestern University Northwestern University Purple 3 8 8 8 5 8 6 3 49 Zachary Herron '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Hans Mueller-Schrader '17 [3-4]
Yi Zhang '17 [1-2, 5-8]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon 9 9 6 7 8 7 9 9 64 John O'Leary '16 [1-8]
Evan Finley '15 [1-6]
Weike Gao '18 [7-8]
Lawrence University Lawrence University Vikings 8 7 9 9 9 9 8 8 67 Conor Sexton '15 [1-8]
Louis Weissert '18 [1-4]
Ariel Worley '17 [5-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Women 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 10 Alison Kent '16
Cailin Oakes '18
Northwestern University Northwestern University White 5 4 5 2 3 1 4 3 27 Susan Riley '17 [1-6]
Jacob Bruce '16 [7-8]
Jacob Bruce '16 [1-6]
Susan Riley '17 [7-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 4 3 3 3 2 4 6 5 30 Ben Breuner '15
Izora Baltys '15
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 6 5 2 4 5 5 2 2 31 Isak Peterson '15
Benjamin Jones '18
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Gold 3 2 4 6 4 6 5 6 36 Michael Valverde '18
Spencer Warfield '18
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Gold 2 8 8 5 6 2 8 4 43 Anthony Tieso '17
Zachary Lisko '19
Northwestern University Northwestern University Purple 7 6 6 8 8 8 3 8 54 Jennie Werner '18 [1-4, 6, 8]
Hans Mueller-Schrader '17 [5]
Medina Krevans '16 [7]
Medina Krevans '16 [1-4, 8]
Jennie Werner '18 [5, 7]
Hans Mueller-Schrader '17 [6]
Lawrence University Lawrence University Vikings 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 57 Andrew Hill '17 [1-8]
Lucy Walltisch '17 [1-2]
Eva Shuman '18 [3-8]
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gopher Maroon DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 80 Alec Englander '19
Ce Chen '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Lawrence UniversityLawrence University Vikings2828303032323434
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gopher Gold3333353528283030
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gopher Maroon3434363629293131
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gopher Women3232343436362929
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Purple3030323234343636
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University White3131333335352828
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats2929313133333535
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Gold3636292931313333
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers3535282830303232

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Lawrence UniversityLawrence University Vikings2929313133333535
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gopher Gold3434363629293131
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gopher Maroon3535282830303232
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gopher Women3333353528283030
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Purple3131333335352828
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University White3232343436362929
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats3030323234343636
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Gold2828303032323434
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers3636292931313333
School / Team SkipperCrew
Lawrence University Lawrence University Conor Sexton '15 [1-8] Louis Weissert '18 [1-4]
Ariel Worley '17 [5-8]
Vikings Andrew Hill '17 [1-8] Lucy Walltisch '17 [1-2]
Eva Shuman '18 [3-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Zachary Herron '18 [1-2, 5-8]
Hans Mueller-Schrader '17 [3-4]		 Yi Zhang '17 [1-2, 5-8]
Purple Jennie Werner '18 [1-4, 6, 8]
Hans Mueller-Schrader '17 [5]
Medina Krevans '16 [7]		 Medina Krevans '16 [1-4, 8]
Jennie Werner '18 [5, 7]
Hans Mueller-Schrader '17 [6]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Charles Tokowitz '17 Madeline Deysine '16
White Susan Riley '17 [1-6]
Jacob Bruce '16 [7-8]		 Jacob Bruce '16 [1-6]
Susan Riley '17 [7-8]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Travis Cottle '15 [1-8] Emily Vogt '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Caroline Spiezio '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Wildcats Ben Breuner '15 Izora Baltys '15
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Isabella Hamilton '17 Ella Mcclarnon '18
Gopher Gold Michael Valverde '18 Spencer Warfield '18
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota John O'Leary '16 [1-8] Evan Finley '15 [1-6]
Weike Gao '18 [7-8]
Gopher Maroon Alec Englander '19 Ce Chen '16
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Emily Oltrogge '15 Emily Johnson '16
Gopher Women Alison Kent '16 Cailin Oakes '18
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Andre Deriaz '18 Jordyn Noennig '17
Gold Anthony Tieso '17 Zachary Lisko '19
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Hannah Noll '15 Brittni Begale '16
Panthers Isak Peterson '15 Benjamin Jones '18

Conditions — 05/09/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1020.5 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.8 kn
avg  ·  max 6.6 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From NE (41°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover14% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1020.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Minnesota: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.36 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Minnesota by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Minnesota, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →