University of Wisconsin '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.83 (fleet 2.53) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–39 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 3–33 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 9–1 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 2 | 24–2 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 9–3 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (84 matches) the record is 45–39 against 43.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.56 | 2.17 | 2–13 | 2.4 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 2016-03-26 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 2.54 | 0.73 | 1–20 | 2.7 | −1.81 | 2.1 | 99% |
| 2015-10-17 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 2.68 | 2.54 | 9–1 | 9.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 78% |
| 2014-10-25 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 2.49 | 4.87 | 10–1 | 7.8 | +2.38 | 3.7 | 4% |
| 2014-09-20 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 2.25 | 3.52 | 14–1 | 12.6 | +1.27 | 1.1 | 23% |
| 2013-11-02 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.48 | 2.04 | 9–3 | 8.7 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 69% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Co-ed Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.2 | 4.73 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Charleston Spring Coed | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.6 | 2.55 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 5% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Timme Angsten | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.0 | 2.25 |
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 4 | 20.2 | 1.39 |
| MCSA Fall Championship | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.0 | 2.28 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.6 | 3.72 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 14.8 | 1.60 |
| 3 Division Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.5 | 3.40 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.0 | 3.44 |
| Davis Cup | Skipper | A | 4 | 1.2 | 3.96 |
| David Lee Arnoff/ HWS Fall Regatta | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.0 | 2.40 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 16.4 | 2.08 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| 68th Timme Angsten | Skipper | B | 11 | 3.5 | 2.31 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisconsin 3-Division | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.2 | 4.14 |
| Northwestern's Spring | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.4 | 1.66 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 17.6 | 0.80 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 16.0 | 1.48 |
| Pere Marquette Cup | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.8 | 3.02 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 15.9 | 1.10 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | D | 20 | 17.3 | 0.47 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.4 | 1.45 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.2 | 2.54 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 75% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
