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3 Division Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B C TOT
1 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 15 15 18 48
2 University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 49 21 31 101
3 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 22 36 44 102
4 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 36 33 55 124
5 Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 41 55 40 136
6 Washington University Washington University Bears 62 65 30 157
7 University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 57 55 63 175
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 15 Soren Walljasper '17 [1-10]
Virginia Debbink '16 [1-4, 7-10]
Mason Engnes '17 [5-6]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 3 1 2 4 3 3 1 1 2 2 22 Jacob Bruce '16 [1-10]
Alex Merryman '18 [1-8]
Alexandra Rawson '15 [9-10]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 7 6 6 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 36 Robert Johnston '15
Allison Park '17
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 1 3 3 5 4 4 4 7 5 5 41 Ryan Mabie '16
Galina Vander Meer '16
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 6 5 4 3 6 6 7 4 4 4 49 Katherine Zimmerman '18 [1-10]
Korina Hendricks '17 [1-4, 7-10]
Tate Castro '17 [5-6]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 4 7 5 7 5 5 6 5 7 6 57 Andre Deriaz '18
Benjamin Jones '18
Washington University Washington University Bears 5 4 7 6 DNS DNS 5 6 6 7 62 Mary Prothero '15
Ben Perlman '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 2 2 1 1 15 Andrea Sullivan '18 [1-10]
Kelsea Kierstead '15 [1-6]
Erik Elliott '17 [7-10]
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 4 4 21 David Meyerson '15
Megan Mcmahon '17
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 33 Matthew Zampa '15
Hannah Givertz '18
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 5 4 4 2 3 7 3 4 2 2 36 Zachary Herron '18 [1-10]
Jennie Werner '18 [1-4, 7-10]
Alexandra Rawson '15 [5-6]
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 4 7 6 5 5 3 5 7 7 6 55 Anthony Tieso '17
Jordyn Noennig '17
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 5 5 55 Drake Hullinger '17
Grant Moore '17
Washington University Washington University Bears 7 6 7 7 7 6 7 5 6 7 65 Russell Melin '17
Julia Kindlon '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 2 5 1 1 18 Nathan Jamieson '17
Washington University Washington University Bears 2 2 6 2 4 2 3 2 2 5 30 Theodore Cohen '16
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 3 3 5 6 3 3 1 1 3 3 31 Elliot Busta '15
Western Michigan University Western Michigan University Broncos 4 5 2 4 5 5 5 4 4 2 40 Matt Bracey '17
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 5 4 7 3 2 4 4 6 5 4 44 Charles Tokowitz '17
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 6 6 1 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 55 Spencer Carlson '17
University of Wisconsin Milwaukee University of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers 7 7 3 7 7 DNF 7 3 7 7 63 Zachary Lisko '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 177889910101111
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 28899101011111212
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers1111121213137788
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears12121313778899
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos13137788991010
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 1991010111112121313
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 2101011111212131377

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 177889910101111
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 28899101011111212
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers1111121213137788
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears12121313778899
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos13137788991010
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 1991010111112121313
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 2101011111212131377

Division C

Team1C2C3C4C5C6C7C8C9C10C
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 122336614141515
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 23366141415151616
University of Wisconsin MilwaukeeUniversity of Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers1515161618182233
Washington UniversityWashington University Bears16161818223366
Western Michigan UniversityWestern Michigan University Broncos18182233661414
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 1661414151516161818
University of WisconsinUniversity of Wisconsin Badgers 2141415151616181822

Conditions — 05/02/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 41%  ·  Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 65°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.8 kn
avg  ·  max 10.6 kn
Gusts to 22.2 kn
From SW (215°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover14% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity41% Pressure1015.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 11 kn · SW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Wisconsin: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.15)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.26
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.39 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.15 means a rating gap counts about 13% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Wisconsin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (41 labelled days at Wisconsin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →