University of Wisconsin '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.32 (fleet 1.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–20 (39%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 4–9 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | 5–7 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 4–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (33 matches) the record is 13–20 against 17.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.54 | 2.49 | 4–9 | 2.8 | +0.95 | 0.9 | 23% |
| 2017-09-16 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 1.39 | -0.06 | 5–7 | 8.5 | −1.45 | 3.8 | >99% |
| 2015-10-17 | Streufert Team Race | skipper | 1.14 | -0.39 | 4–4 | 5.7 | −1.53 | 1.9 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 31% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Women's Women's | Skipper | B | — | — | — |
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.6 | 2.77 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisconsin Three Division Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.2 | 2.19 |
| NU Spring | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.7 | 0.66 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sugar Bowl | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.5 | 1.47 |
| Pere Marquette | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.5 | 2.25 |
| Buckeye Invite | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 0.97 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| WISCO 3 Division | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.0 | 1.16 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Timme Angsten | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.6 | 1.97 |
| Streufert Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| Davis Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.8 | 0.44 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Freshman Icebreaker | Skipper | B | 10 | 1.9 | 1.72 |
| 3 Division Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.9 | 0.52 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.1 | 1.28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
