| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Michigan | Wolverines 1 | 13–0 |
| 2 |  |
University of Wisconsin | Badgers 1 | 9–4 |
| 3 |  |
Northwestern University | Wildcats 1 | 8–5 |
| 4 | |
University of Wisconsin | Badgers 2 | 4–9 |
| 5 | |
University of Michigan | Wolverines 2 | 8–5 |
| 6 |  |
Marquette University | Golden Eagles 1 | 7–6 |
| 7 | |
Northwestern University | Wildcats 2 | 2–11 |
| 8 | |
Marquette University | Golden Eagles 2 | 1–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,154 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 48 of 52 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.286 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.20 ± 0.25: a typical event, more orderly than 67% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Michigan Wolverines 1 | 7.12 | 10.12 | 13–0 | 10.8 | ≥+3.00 | 3.6 | 7% |
| 4 | University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 | 3.63 | 4.58 | 4–9 | 2.8 | +0.95 | 0.9 | 23% |
| 6 | Marquette University Golden Eagles 1 | 3.58 | 4.25 | 7–6 | 6.0 | +0.67 | 0.5 | 34% |
| 8 | Marquette University Golden Eagles 2 | 0.66 | 1.19 | 1–12 | 0.6 | +0.53 | 0.2 | 48% |
| 2 | University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 | 6.44 | 6.42 | 9–4 | 9.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 3 | Northwestern University Wildcats 1 | 6.35 | 5.91 | 8–5 | 8.8 | −0.44 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 5 | University of Michigan Wolverines 2 | 5.47 | 4.01 | 8–5 | 10.0 | −1.47 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 7 | Northwestern University Wildcats 2 | 2.54 | 0.89 | 2–11 | 3.9 | −1.65 | 2.2 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Michigan Wolverines 1 | 10–4 | ✕ | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 | 10–4 | W | ✕ | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W |
| Northwestern University Wildcats 1 | 5–9 | L | W | ✕ | W | L | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 | 10–4 | W | ✕ | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W |
| University of Michigan Wolverines 2 | 10–4 | ✕ | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Marquette University Golden Eagles 1 | 3–11 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L | ✕ |
| Northwestern University Wildcats 2 | 5–9 | L | W | ✕ | W | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Marquette University Golden Eagles 2 | 3–11 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Michigan Wolverines 1 | 11–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers 1 | 3–9 | L | ✕ | L | ✕ | L | – | L | – |
| Northwestern University Wildcats 1 | 5–7 | L | W | ✕ | W | L | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Wisconsin Badgers 2 | 3–9 | L | ✕ | L | ✕ | L | – | L | – |
| University of Michigan Wolverines 2 | 11–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Marquette University Golden Eagles 1 | 5–7 | L | – | L | – | L | ✕ | L | ✕ |
| Northwestern University Wildcats 2 | 5–7 | L | W | ✕ | W | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Marquette University Golden Eagles 2 | 5–7 | L | – | L | – | L | ✕ | L | ✕ |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
