University of Wisconsin '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 17–13 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 2–0 |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | — | 15–13 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 15–13 against 13.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | crew | 2.35 | 3.37 | 2–3 | 1.5 | +1.03 | 0.4 | 49% |
| 2017-04-29 | MCSA Team Race Championship | crew | 2.20 | 2.41 | 13–5 | 12.4 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2017-03-25 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | crew | 1.58 | -1.42 | 0–5 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Charleston Spring | Crew | B | 2 | 5.0 | — |
| Big Ten Team Race | Crew | TR | 13 | 69% | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Crew | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Crew | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Crew | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Crew | B | 2 | 9.5 | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Freshman Icebreaker | Crew | B | 4 | 1.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
