University of Michigan '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.61 (fleet 2.23) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 25–31 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 13–25 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 12–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (56 matches) the record is 25–31 against 26.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 1.91 | 0.44 | 8–5 | 10.0 | −1.47 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 2018-03-24 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 1.97 | 2.03 | 4–10 | 3.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2018-02-24 | Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 1.92 | 2.52 | 1–10 | 0.6 | +0.59 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 2017-04-29 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.83 | 1.99 | 12–6 | 11.5 | +0.16 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NU Spring | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.0 | 2.17 |
| Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 19 | 16% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.4 | 2.67 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 4 | 14.8 | 1.61 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Jesuit Interconference | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.9 | 2.14 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NU Spring | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.4 | 1.60 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Freshman Icebreaker | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.1 | 1.72 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| David Lee Arnoff | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.4 | 2.36 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Austin Haag |  Minnetonka High School |
'16 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
