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NU Spring

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 27 12 39
2 University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 42 48 90
3 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 36 55 91
4 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 67 38 105
5 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 3 37 85 122
6 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 83 55 138
7 University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 72 68 140
8 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 69 73 142
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 2 1 1 3 4 5 3 3 1 1 1 2 27 Colton Gerber '18
Anna Wisotzkey '20
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 5 5 6 2 1 1 6 2 2 2 3 1 36 Austin Haag '20
Sofia Gambini '19
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 3 3 4 4 1 2 7 2 1 4 3 2 4 37 Connor Goulet '21
Margaret Carroll '21
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 1 3 3 4 6 2 1 4 3 4 4 7 42 Cailin Oakes '18 [1-12]
Ryan Sigurdson '18 [1-4, 7-12]
Matthew Granstrom '21 [5-6]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 6 2 7 7 7 6 5 7 6 6 5 3 67 Audrey Debruine '19 [1-5, 7-12]
Susan Riley '17 [6]
Susan Riley '17 [1-2, 5, 9-10]
Noah Rosenthal '18 [3-4, 6-8, 11-12]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 4 6 2 6 3 3 8 8 8 7 6 8 69 Kelly Logacho '18 [1-2]
Margot Murray '21 [3-4]
Ryder Easterlin '20 [5-6]
Jonathan Atler '18 [7-12]
Isabelle Laskero '20 [1-4]
Neha Pashankar '21 [5-6]
Coby Parker '19 [7-8]
Guilherme Vendemiatti '19 [9-12]
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 7 8 5 5 5 4 4 5 7 DNF 7 6 72 Brian Pribe '22 [1-12]
Jessica Ruetz '18 [1-2, 7-8]
Kaitlin Conner '20 [3-4, 9-10]
Ashley Carr '21 [5-6, 11-12]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 8 5 83 Bay Hodge '21
Carolyn Applebaum '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12 Grant Glover '19
Michael Gapuz '18
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 1 6 3 5 2 4 2 2 5 2 3 2 2 38 Cuyler Dull '20
Mariel Tang '20
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Gophers 4 4 2 6 3 3 3 4 6 6 3 4 48 Bailey Adkins '19
Cassandra Trask '20
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 2 2 6 4 2 5 6 7 3 2 7 DNF 55 Chuan Yin '18
David Woldenberg '19
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 2 5 5 7 3 5 4 4 6 4 5 4 3 55 Max Ellsworth '21
Ambika Agrawal '20
University of Toledo University of Toledo Rockets 3 7 3 5 8 8 5 3 7 8 5 6 68 Kristen Ruta '19 [1-12]
Nathan St. Clair '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Caitlin Mutti '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 2 7 6 8 7 6 6 8 2 5 4 DNF 5 73 Emily Vogt '18 [1-12]
Zoe Detweiler '21 [1-4, 7-8]
Amy Rogin '20 [5-6]
Hannah Givertz '18 [9-12]
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 3 8 8 4 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 7 85 Patrick Ryan '20
Samuel Ephraim '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (31 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons991313151577991313
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 11010141416168810101414
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 213131515779913131515
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 31414161688101014141616
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers151577991313151577
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 17799131315157799
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 288101014141616881010
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets16168810101414161688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
University of ChicagoUniversity of Chicago Maroons1010141416168810101414
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 113131515779913131515
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 21414161688101014141616
University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan Wolverines 3151577991313151577
University of MinnesotaUniversity of Minnesota Gophers16168810101414161688
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 188101014141616881010
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats 2991313151577991313
University of ToledoUniversity of Toledo Rockets7799131315157799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Northwestern University Northwestern University Audrey Debruine '19 [1-5, 7-12]
Susan Riley '17 [6]		 Susan Riley '17 [1-2, 5, 9-10]
Noah Rosenthal '18 [3-4, 6-8, 11-12]
Wildcats 1 Cuyler Dull '20 Mariel Tang '20
Northwestern University Northwestern University Kelly Logacho '18 [1-2]
Margot Murray '21 [3-4]
Ryder Easterlin '20 [5-6]
Jonathan Atler '18 [7-12]		 Isabelle Laskero '20 [1-4]
Neha Pashankar '21 [5-6]
Coby Parker '19 [7-8]
Guilherme Vendemiatti '19 [9-12]
Wildcats 2 Emily Vogt '18 [1-12] Zoe Detweiler '21 [1-4, 7-8]
Amy Rogin '20 [5-6]
Hannah Givertz '18 [9-12]
University of Chicago University of Chicago Bay Hodge '21 Carolyn Applebaum '20
Maroons Chuan Yin '18 David Woldenberg '19
University of Michigan University of Michigan Colton Gerber '18 Anna Wisotzkey '20
Wolverines 1 Grant Glover '19 Michael Gapuz '18
University of Michigan University of Michigan Austin Haag '20 Sofia Gambini '19
Wolverines 2 Max Ellsworth '21 Ambika Agrawal '20
University of Michigan University of Michigan Connor Goulet '21 Margaret Carroll '21
Wolverines 3 Patrick Ryan '20 Samuel Ephraim '22
University of Minnesota University of Minnesota Cailin Oakes '18 [1-12] Ryan Sigurdson '18 [1-4, 7-12]
Matthew Granstrom '21 [5-6]
Gophers Bailey Adkins '19 Cassandra Trask '20
University of Toledo University of Toledo Brian Pribe '22 [1-12] Jessica Ruetz '18 [1-2, 7-8]
Kaitlin Conner '20 [3-4, 9-10]
Ashley Carr '21 [5-6, 11-12]
Rockets Kristen Ruta '19 [1-12] Nathan St. Clair '22 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Caitlin Mutti '20 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]

Conditions — 05/05/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 43%  ·  Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 61°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.7 kn
Gusts to 19.6 kn
From WSW (236°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover18% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1015.0 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn · NE 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Northwestern: a favourites’ day (+0.09)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.18
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.21 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northwestern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (17 labelled days at Northwestern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →