Northwestern University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.93 (fleet 1.28) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–11 (15%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 2–11 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 2–11 against 3.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-07 | Big Ten Team Race | skipper | 0.90 | -0.75 | 2–11 | 3.9 | −1.65 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.7 | -0.59 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corckran King Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.8 | 0.72 |
| NU Spring | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.0 | 1.70 |
| Eckerd Interconference | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.2 | 1.00 |
| Big Ten Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 15% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| U of I Regatta | Skipper | B | 9 | 1.2 | 2.65 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Margot Murray |  Summit High School |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
