Admiral Moore Team Race

HostNY Maritime
Date03/24/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	17–0
2	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	11–6
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	10–7
4	Fordham University	Rams	8–9
5	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	6–8
6	Roger Williams University	Hawks	6–8
7	University of Michigan	Wolverines	4–10
8	University of Virginia	Wahoos	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,346 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 62 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.338 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.29 ± 0.24: an orderly event, more orderly than 75% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	1	11.01 school +0.17	Charles Miller / Lindsey Kloc 3.35 15–0 Hector Guzman / Maya Weber 3.78 15–0 Greiner Hobbs / Haley Okun 4.02 13–0 Kyle Easton / Haley Okun 4–0 Greiner Hobbs / Lindsey Kloc 3.94 2–0 Kyle Easton / Maya Weber 2–0	95%	17–0 (100%)	+0.8
2	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2	9.03 home +0.39	Zachary Hill / Timothy Montera 3.24 John Lawless / Brian Buckley 2.24 Kyle Comerford / Skye Miller 3.13 5–2 Kyle Comerford / Kyle Gelderman 3.22 3–3 Kyle Comerford / Christian Neuman 3.18 3–1	65%	11–6 (65%)	−0.1
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	4	8.30 school −0.05	Jack Marshall / Claire Mohun 3.33 Andrew Person / Grace Hanrahan 2.90 Noah Kelleher / Maya Rabinowitz 6–7 Noah Kelleher / Jack Hogan 4–0	50%	10–7 (59%)	+1.4
4	Fordham University Rams	6	8.07	Roberto Stevens / Cortney Rielly 2.99 Brad Seferian / Annika Ekholm 2.37 Tucker Hersam / Katherine Jones 2.64	45%	8–9 (47%)	+0.3
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5	7.84 school +0.05	Keen Butcher / Greta Morrissette 2.28 Nicholas Floyd / Dana Hackett 2.92 Joseph Laforgia / Lucy Sergeant 2.51	46%	6–8 (43%)	−0.4
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	8.29 school +0.24	Daniel Petrovic / Megan Roach 2.58 Spencer Cartwright / Emily Gildea 2.82 Dane Pedersen / Henry Stames	54%	6–8 (43%)	−1.6
7	University of Michigan Wolverines	7	6.90 school −0.10	Mason Wolters / Michael Gapuz 2.32 August Sturm / Amy Baer 2.68 Austin Haag / Sofia Gambini 1.97	28%	4–10 (29%)	+0.1
8	University of Virginia Wahoos	8	4.91 school +0.19	Colin Suvak / Dorothy Stump 2.57 Colleen Roney / Connor Segal 1.05 Trent Levy / Michael Van Meter	4%	0–14 (0%)	−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	11.01	14.01	17–0	16.2	≥+3.00	1.2	43%
3	Georgetown University	8.30	8.80	10–7	8.6	+0.50	0.5	30%
4	Fordham University	8.07	8.19	8–9	7.7	+0.12	0.0	54%
7	University of Michigan	6.90	6.97	4–10	3.9	+0.06	0.0	59%
2	SUNY Maritime College	9.03	9.00	11–6	11.1	−0.03	0.0	65%
5	University of Pennsylvania	7.84	7.67	6–8	6.4	−0.17	0.1	72%
6	Roger Williams University	8.29	7.62	6–8	7.6	−0.67	0.8	91%
8	University of Virginia	4.91	1.91	0–14	0.6	≤−3.00	0.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Charles Miller	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.35	6.35	15–0	14.3	≥+3.00	1.0	48%
Noah Kelleher	Georgetown University	1.87	2.37	10–7	8.6	+0.50	0.5	30%
Jack Marshall	Georgetown University	3.33	3.83	10–7	8.6	+0.50	0.5	30%
Andrew Person	Georgetown University	2.90	3.40	10–7	8.6	+0.50	0.5	30%
Roberto Stevens	Fordham University	2.99	3.11	8–9	7.7	+0.12	0.0	54%
Mason Wolters	University of Michigan	2.32	2.38	4–10	3.9	+0.06	0.0	59%
August Sturm	University of Michigan	2.68	2.74	4–10	3.9	+0.06	0.0	59%
Austin Haag	University of Michigan	1.97	2.03	4–10	3.9	+0.06	0.0	59%
Zachary Hill	SUNY Maritime College	3.24	3.21	11–6	11.1	−0.03	0.0	65%
John Lawless	SUNY Maritime College	2.24	2.21	11–6	11.1	−0.03	0.0	65%
Keen Butcher	University of Pennsylvania	2.28	2.11	6–8	6.4	−0.17	0.1	72%
Joseph Laforgia	University of Pennsylvania	2.51	2.34	6–8	6.4	−0.17	0.1	72%
Spencer Cartwright	Roger Williams University	2.82	2.14	6–8	7.6	−0.67	0.8	91%
Colin Suvak	University of Virginia	2.57	-0.43	0–14	0.6	≤−3.00	0.8	>99%
Colleen Roney	University of Virginia	1.05	-1.95	0–14	0.6	≤−3.00	0.8	>99%
Trent Levy	University of Virginia	0.84	-2.16	0–14	0.6	≤−3.00	0.8	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	SUNY Maritime College	University of Michigan	89%
1	2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	96%
1	3	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	57%
1	4	Fordham University	University of Virginia	97%
1	5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Michigan	96%
1	6	SUNY Maritime College	Georgetown University	70%
1	7	Roger Williams University	University of Virginia	97%
1	8	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	57%
1	9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	96%
1	10	University of Michigan	University of Virginia	89%
1	11	SUNY Maritime College	University of Pennsylvania	76%
1	12	Fordham University	Roger Williams University	45%	upset
1	13	Georgetown University	University of Virginia	97%
1	14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	95%
1	15	Roger Williams University	University of Michigan	80%
1	16	SUNY Maritime College	Fordham University	73%
1	17	University of Pennsylvania	University of Virginia	95%
1	18	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	49%	upset
1	19	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	91%
1	20	Fordham University	University of Michigan	76%
1	21	University of Pennsylvania	Roger Williams University	39%	upset
1	22	SUNY Maritime College	University of Virginia	98%
1	23	University of Michigan	Georgetown University	20%	upset
1	24	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	96%
1	25	SUNY Maritime College	Roger Williams University	68%
1	26	University of Pennsylvania	University of Michigan	72%
1	27	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Virginia	100%
1	28	Georgetown University	Fordham University	56%
2	29	SUNY Maritime College	University of Michigan	89%
2	30	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	95%
2	31	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	50%
2	32	Fordham University	University of Virginia	96%
2	33	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Michigan	96%
2	34	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	34%	upset
2	35	University of Pennsylvania	University of Virginia	95%
2	36	Roger Williams University	Fordham University	56%
2	37	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	95%
2	38	University of Michigan	University of Virginia	87%
2	39	Roger Williams University	SUNY Maritime College	33%	upset
2	40	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	55%
2	41	Georgetown University	University of Virginia	97%
2	42	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Roger Williams University	95%
2	43	University of Pennsylvania	University of Michigan	72%
2	44	SUNY Maritime College	Fordham University	73%
2	45	Roger Williams University	University of Virginia	96%
2	46	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	62%
2	47	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	90%
2	48	University of Michigan	Fordham University	24%	upset
2	49	University of Pennsylvania	Roger Williams University	40%	upset
2	50	SUNY Maritime College	University of Virginia	98%
2	51	Georgetown University	University of Michigan	81%
2	52	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	96%
2	53	SUNY Maritime College	University of Pennsylvania	75%
2	54	Roger Williams University	University of Michigan	80%
2	55	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Virginia	100%
2	56	Fordham University	Georgetown University	42%	upset
4	57	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	SUNY Maritime College	90%
4	58	Fordham University	Georgetown University	42%	upset
4	59	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Georgetown University	95%
4	60	SUNY Maritime College	Fordham University	73%
4	61	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	96%
4	62	Georgetown University	SUNY Maritime College	36%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Privateers	Hoyas	Rams	Quakers	Hawks	Wolverines	Wahoos
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	L	W
Fordham University Rams	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	2–5	L	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Privateers	Hoyas	Rams	Quakers	Hawks	Wolverines	Wahoos
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	4–3	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	3–4	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–3	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Statesmen	Privateers	Hoyas	Rams
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–0	✕	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	1–2	L	✕	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	1–2	L	W	✕	L
Fordham University Rams	1–2	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
2	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
3	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
4	Rams	2-3-5	def.	Wahoos	1-4-6
5	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
6	Privateers	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
7	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Wahoos	2-4-5
8	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
9	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
10	Wolverines	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
11	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
12	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
13	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
14	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
15	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Wolverines	2-4-5
16	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
17	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
18	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
19	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
20	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
21	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
22	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
23	Wolverines	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
24	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
25	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
26	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
27	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
28	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
29	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
30	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
31	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
32	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Wahoos	1-5-6
33	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
34	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
35	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
36	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
37	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
38	Wolverines	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
39	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
40	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
41	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
42	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
43	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
44	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
45	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Wahoos	2-4-5
46	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
47	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
48	Wolverines	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
49	Quakers	1-3-6	def.	Hawks	2-4-5
50	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
51	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
52	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
53	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
54	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
55	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
56	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
57	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
58	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Hoyas	2-4-5
59	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
60	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
61	Statesmen	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
62	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Charles Miller '19 Greiner Hobbs '18 Hector Guzman '20 Kyle Easton '20	Lindsey Kloc '19 Haley Okun '18 Maya Weber '20
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	John Lawless '19 Kyle Comerford '19 Zachary Hill '18	Brian Buckley '21 Skye Miller '19 Kyle Gelderman '21 Christian Neuman '21 Timothy Montera '18
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Andrew Person '21 Jack Marshall '18 Noah Kelleher '19	Grace Hanrahan '18 Claire Mohun '19 Maya Rabinowitz '21 Jack Hogan '22
Fordham University	Rams	Brad Seferian '19 Roberto Stevens '19 Tucker Hersam '20	Annika Ekholm '20 Cortney Rielly '20 Katherine Jones '18
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Joseph Laforgia '21 Keen Butcher '18 Nicholas Floyd '19	Lucy Sergeant '18 Greta Morrissette '21 Dana Hackett '20
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Dane Pedersen '19 Daniel Petrovic '19 Spencer Cartwright '22	Henry Stames '18 Megan Roach '18 Emily Gildea '21
University of Michigan	Wolverines	August Sturm '20 Austin Haag '20 Mason Wolters '18	Amy Baer '19 Sofia Gambini '19 Michael Gapuz '18
University of Virginia	Wahoos	Colin Suvak '19 Colleen Roney '18 Trent Levy '21	Dorothy Stump '18 Connor Segal '20 Michael Van Meter '20

Conditions — 03/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 45% · Pressure 1018.6 hPa

Temperature

43°F

↑ 48°F ↓ 32°F

Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.6 kn

avg · max 9.4 kn

Gusts to 20.4 kn

From NNW (331°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine9.7 hrs Humidity45% Pressure1018.6 hPa

What this breeze does at NY Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at NY Maritime in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at NY Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled fleet-race days at NY Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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