University of Pennsylvania '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.56 (fleet 3.55) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 43–93 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 13–28 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 17–28 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | 13–37 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (136 matches) the record is 43–93 against 46.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-16 | Graham Hall | skipper | 3.19 | 2.70 | 5–10 | 6.0 | −0.50 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2019-03-09 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 3.19 | 2.94 | 3–8 | 3.4 | −0.25 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2019-03-02 | GW Team Race | skipper | 3.18 | 2.75 | 5–10 | 6.1 | −0.43 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2018-03-31 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.92 | 3.01 | 7–8 | 6.7 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2018-03-24 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 2.92 | 2.75 | 6–8 | 6.4 | −0.17 | 0.1 | 72% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 3.50 | 4–12 | 2.9 | +0.62 | 0.5 | 30% |
| 2017-04-01 | MAISA Team Race Challenge | skipper | 3.37 | 3.38 | 5–9 | 5.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2017-03-25 | 2017 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.30 | 3.34 | 5–16 | 4.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2017-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.76 | 1.80 | 3–12 | 5.5 | −0.96 | 1.6 | 96% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Nicholas Floyd |  Severn School |
'15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
