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Central Fall Qualifier

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 33 31 64
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 49 30 79
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 51 39 90
4 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 53 46 99
5 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 57 76 133
6 Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 109 69 178
7 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 75 107 182
8 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 118 79 197
9 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 114 114 228
10 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 104 139 243
11 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 97 153 250
12 University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 147 125 272
13 Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 139 142 281
14 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 128 178 306
15 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 172 139 311
16 Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers 206 MRP 182 MRP 388 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 1 1 2 8 2 4 2 2 6 2 1 33 Charles Lomax '18 [1-12]
Gabrielle Neubelt '17 [1-6, 9-12]
Patrick Scollard '17 [7-8]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 3 6 8 1 5 5 1 3 7 7 2 49 Jack Swikart '15
Sarah Punzel '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 7 5 3 1 7 6 1 6 1 1 1 12 51 Addison Hackstaff '18
Michelle Katz '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 4 7 3 2 3 2 4 4 3 12 5 53 Jonathan Lutz '17
Elleanor Wells '18
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 5 6 5 7 3 1 3 3 9 4 5 6 57 Cody Stansky '16
Alex Dzinbal '17
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 3 10 8 9 6 4 7 5 6 2 6 9 75 Vidar Minkovsky '18
Samantha Zito '18
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 12 11 11 5 9 9 11 7 8 8 3 3 97 John Shanahan '16
Kristen Einthoven '18
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 9 12 2 12 5 10 9 8 7 11 8 11 104 Jeffrey Proko '18
Tracy Venella '16
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 6 8 14 10 4 11 8 10 11 9 10 8 109 Trevor Koerwer '19 [1-2, 5-12]
Harrison Paige '19 [3-4]
Elisabeth Day '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Elizabeth Chapey '18 [3-4]
Lawson Buckley '18 [7-12]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 13 14 12 14 15 8 6 9 5 10 4 4 114 Paul Hart '19 [1-6]
Matthew Mcdermaid '17 [7-12]
Bridgette Hindt '18 [1-4]
Henry Eschricht '16 [5-12]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 8 7 10 13 11 14 10 11 10 5 9 10 118 Julian Fraize '18 [1-12]
Meredith Foor '18 [1-6]
Peter Teague '18 [7-12]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 11 2 4 4 10 7 16 15 16 16 14 13 128 Robert Whitaker '18 [1-6]
Sydney Mandelbaum '17 [7-12]
Alec Regulski '16 [1-6]
Grant Godeke '17 [7-12]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 10 9 9 11 14 12 14 12 13 15 13 7 139 Brogan Savage '15
Giuseppe Licata '17
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 14 13 13 6 13 13 12 13 12 13 11 14 147 Evan Shone '17 [1-12]
Morgan Dezendorf '17 [1-6]
Charles Burton '18 [7-12]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 15 15 15 15 12 15 13 14 14 12 16 16 172 Mitchell Nunn '18
Megan Parker '19
Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 16 15 14 15 15 206 MRP Taylor Niles '17 [1-12]
Cassidy Gonzalez '18 [1-4, 9-10]
No Show [5-8, 11-12]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3 2 3 2 1 4 2 1 3 4 3 2 30 Nicholas Floyd '19 [1-12]
Alexia Nefeli Tragakes '18 [1-6, 11-12]
Foster Collins '16 [7-10]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 3 1 4 2 7 3 2 1 1 4 1 31 Max Neubelt '17
Dominique Neubelt '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 1 7 5 4 2 1 3 6 3 1 5 39 Peter Hogan '18
Mary Morocco '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 6 6 1 3 1 5 5 4 2 6 3 46 Patrick Tara '17
Kira Allen '18
Villanova University Villanova University Wildcats 8 4 5 11 5 3 4 4 7 7 5 6 69 Bailey Cornog '19 [1-2, 5-10]
Peter Mcmillan '19 [3-4, 11-12]
Austin Tipp '18 [1-2, 5-12]
Lawson Buckley '18 [3-4]
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 6 7 8 3 6 10 6 7 5 8 2 8 76 Casey Brown '16
Zachary Backas '16
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 5 9 2 7 9 5 11 6 2 6 8 9 79 Matthew Roleke '19 [1-6]
Andrew O'Brien '19 [7-12]
Jesse Stevenson '19 [1-6]
Thomas Slook '18 [7-12]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 7 8 13 8 7 6 10 9 10 12 7 10 107 Nicholas Manfredi '19
Spencer Ochs '18
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 12 5 4 9 11 12 12 8 9 11 10 11 114 Mason Sheen '17
Allison Cochran '18
University of Delaware University of Delaware Blue Hens 9 12 9 6 13 9 7 11 8 14 13 14 125 Martha Diezemann '18 [1-2]
Ian Berke '16 [3-6, 9-10]
Sean Crandall '19 [7-8, 11-12]
Ian Berke '16 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12]
Martha Diezemann '18 [3-4, 9-10]
Charles Burton '18 [5-6]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 10 13 14 10 10 13 15 14 15 10 11 4 139 John Kirk '17
Angelina Graham '19
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons BKD 10 12 14 8 14 8 10 14 15 9 13 139 Barrett Adams '17
Cooper Voigt '18
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 11 11 DNF 12 14 8 13 15 12 5 12 12 142 Sydney Seitz '17 [1-6]
Amanda Nuse '17 [7-12]
Kaitlyn Brennan '17 [1-8]
Ryan Hallak '18 [9-12]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 13 14 11 16 12 11 9 13 11 13 14 16 153 Sarah Culp '17
Julian Castoro '18
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 14 16 10 13 16 15 16 16 16 16 15 15 178 Bennett Brainard '17 [1-6]
Malcolm Steinberg '17 [7-12]
Jenny Mu '18 [1-6]
Samuel Cabot '17 [7-10]
Aaron Sun '18 [11-12]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Rutgers 15 15 15 15 15 16 14 12 13 9 16 7 182 MRP Mary Morgan '15 [1-12]
Treasa Casey '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Corey Mounce '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens121214141616224466
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons11335577991111
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners10101212141416162244
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks2244668810101212
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen111113131515113355
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings3355779911111313
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions446688101012121414
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers1313151511335577
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers557799111113131515
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Rutgers66881010121214141616
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks88101012121414161622
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks991111131315151133
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves779911111313151511
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats1414161622446688
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen15151133557799
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers1616224466881010

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Blue Hens1313151511335577
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons2244668810101212
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners111113131515113355
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks3355779911111313
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen121214141616224466
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings446688101012121414
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions557799111113131515
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers1414161622446688
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers66881010121214141616
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Rutgers779911111313151511
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks991111131315151133
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks10101212141416162244
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves88101012121414161622
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Wildcats15151133557799
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen1616224466881010
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers11335577991111
School / Team SkipperCrew
Drexel University Drexel University Jeffrey Proko '18 Tracy Venella '16
Dragons Barrett Adams '17 Cooper Voigt '18
Monmouth University Monmouth University Brogan Savage '15 Giuseppe Licata '17
Hawks Sydney Seitz '17 [1-6]
Amanda Nuse '17 [7-12]		 Kaitlyn Brennan '17 [1-8]
Ryan Hallak '18 [9-12]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Mitchell Nunn '18 Megan Parker '19
Vikings John Kirk '17 Angelina Graham '19
Penn State University Penn State University John Shanahan '16 Kristen Einthoven '18
Nittany Lions Sarah Culp '17 Julian Castoro '18
Princeton University Princeton University Robert Whitaker '18 [1-6]
Sydney Mandelbaum '17 [7-12]		 Alec Regulski '16 [1-6]
Grant Godeke '17 [7-12]
Tigers Bennett Brainard '17 [1-6]
Malcolm Steinberg '17 [7-12]		 Jenny Mu '18 [1-6]
Samuel Cabot '17 [7-10]
Aaron Sun '18 [11-12]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Taylor Niles '17 [1-12] Cassidy Gonzalez '18 [1-4, 9-10]
No Show [5-8, 11-12]
Rutgers Mary Morgan '15 [1-12] Treasa Casey '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Corey Mounce '19 [3-4, 7-8, 11-12]
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Vidar Minkovsky '18 Samantha Zito '18
Seawolves Nicholas Manfredi '19 Spencer Ochs '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Jonathan Lutz '17 Elleanor Wells '18
Seahawks Patrick Tara '17 Kira Allen '18
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Julian Fraize '18 [1-12] Meredith Foor '18 [1-6]
Peter Teague '18 [7-12]
Ducks Matthew Roleke '19 [1-6]
Andrew O'Brien '19 [7-12]		 Jesse Stevenson '19 [1-6]
Thomas Slook '18 [7-12]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Charles Lomax '18 [1-12] Gabrielle Neubelt '17 [1-6, 9-12]
Patrick Scollard '17 [7-8]
Mariners Max Neubelt '17 Dominique Neubelt '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Addison Hackstaff '18 Michelle Katz '18
Midshipmen Peter Hogan '18 Mary Morocco '19
University of Delaware University of Delaware Evan Shone '17 [1-12] Morgan Dezendorf '17 [1-6]
Charles Burton '18 [7-12]
Blue Hens Martha Diezemann '18 [1-2]
Ian Berke '16 [3-6, 9-10]
Sean Crandall '19 [7-8, 11-12]		 Ian Berke '16 [1-2, 7-8, 11-12]
Martha Diezemann '18 [3-4, 9-10]
Charles Burton '18 [5-6]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Jack Swikart '15 Sarah Punzel '19
Quakers Nicholas Floyd '19 [1-12] Alexia Nefeli Tragakes '18 [1-6, 11-12]
Foster Collins '16 [7-10]
Villanova University Villanova University Trevor Koerwer '19 [1-2, 5-12]
Harrison Paige '19 [3-4]		 Elisabeth Day '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Elizabeth Chapey '18 [3-4]
Lawson Buckley '18 [7-12]
Wildcats Bailey Cornog '19 [1-2, 5-10]
Peter Mcmillan '19 [3-4, 11-12]		 Austin Tipp '18 [1-2, 5-12]
Lawson Buckley '18 [3-4]
Washington College Washington College Paul Hart '19 [1-6]
Matthew Mcdermaid '17 [7-12]		 Bridgette Hindt '18 [1-4]
Henry Eschricht '16 [5-12]
Shoremen Mason Sheen '17 Allison Cochran '18
Webb Institute Webb Institute Cody Stansky '16 Alex Dzinbal '17
Clippers Casey Brown '16 Zachary Backas '16

Conditions — 09/19/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1013.9 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 67°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 6.8 kn
Gusts to 16.7 kn
From S (188°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1013.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 12 kn · NE 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Monmouth: a typical day (+0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.00 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Monmouth by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 12 labelled days at Monmouth, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →