| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 15–0 |
| 2 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 11–4 |
| 3 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 8–7 |
| 4 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 5–10 |
| 5 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 3–12 |
| 6 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Captains | 3–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,061 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 40 of 45 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.409 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.12 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 56% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgetown University | 11.48 | 14.48 | 15–0 | 13.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 18% |
| 6 | Christopher Newport University | 6.96 | 8.19 | 3–12 | 1.1 | +1.23 | 1.9 | 9% |
| 2 | George Washington University | 10.06 | 10.58 | 11–4 | 9.8 | +0.51 | 0.4 | 34% |
| 3 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 9.67 | 9.60 | 8–7 | 8.2 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 4 | University of Pennsylvania | 9.07 | 8.64 | 5–10 | 6.1 | −0.43 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 5 | Cornell University | 8.97 | 7.19 | 3–12 | 6.4 | −1.78 | 4.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Reiter | Georgetown University | 3.76 | 6.76 | 15–0 | 13.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 18% |
| William Logue | Georgetown University | 3.62 | 6.62 | 15–0 | 13.4 | ≥+3.00 | 2.3 | 18% |
| Bailey Hurst | Christopher Newport University | 1.47 | 3.24 | 1–5 | 0.2 | +1.78 | 1.2 | 20% |
| Vir Menon | Christopher Newport University | 2.40 | 3.63 | 3–12 | 1.1 | +1.23 | 1.9 | 9% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | Christopher Newport University | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2–7 | 0.9 | +1.01 | 0.9 | 21% |
| Andrew Sheerin | George Washington University | 3.51 | 4.03 | 11–4 | 9.8 | +0.51 | 0.4 | 34% |
| Joshua Paper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.55 | 2.66 | 3–3 | 2.8 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Lewis Cooper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.13 | 3.05 | 8–7 | 8.2 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Joseph Laforgia | University of Pennsylvania | 2.88 | 2.45 | 5–10 | 6.1 | −0.43 | 0.3 | 84% |
| Clark Uhl | Cornell University | 3.43 | 1.65 | 3–12 | 6.4 | −1.78 | 4.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Colonials | Seahawks | Quakers | Red | Captains | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–2 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | L |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 1–4 | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Colonials | Seahawks | Quakers | Red | Captains | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 1–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Cornell University Big Red | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Colonials | Seahawks | Quakers | Red | Captains | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 2–3 | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Colonials | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Captains | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Captains | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Colonials | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Colonials | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-3-6 |
| 27 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Captains | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colonials | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Big Red | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Colonials | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Captains | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Quakers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Captains | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Colonials | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Andy Reiter '19 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20 |
Haley Shea '19 Claire Mohun '19 Rebecca Fung '19 Caroline Teare '21 Gwynie Dunlevy '20 |
|
George Washington University | Colonials | Andrew Sheerin '19 Derek Poon Tip '19 Soenke Jordan '21 |
Zachary Lehan '20 Clare Cassidy-Gardner '21 Alexandra Fayer '19 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Joshua Paper '20 Leo Boucher '22 Lewis Cooper '21 Liam Mccarthy '19 |
Ashley Wagner '20 Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Kaisey Mccallion '19 |
|
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | Joseph Laforgia '21 Nicholas Floyd '19 Porter Killian '23 |
Emelia Bartusiak '21 Dana Hackett '20 Kristen Tilley '19 |
|
Cornell University | Big Red | Clark Uhl '19 Ethan Andersen '20 Phillip Schofield '21 |
Patricia Corujo '21 Adeline Sutton '21 Sajan Alagiri '21 Louisa Bjerke '22 |
|
Christopher Newport University | Captains | Bailey Hurst '20 Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 Spencer Charney '20 Vir Menon '20 |
Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 Henry Clune '21 Emily Key '22 Anna Patterson '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
