Team Race Challenge

HostCornell
Date03/31/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Cornell University	Big Red	14–1
2	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	10–5
3	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	8–7
4	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	7–8
5	Fordham University	Rams	4–8
6	Christopher Newport University	Captains	3–9
7	University of Virginia	Wahoos	2–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,872 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-31, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 48 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.486 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.08 ± 0.29: a typical event, more orderly than 51% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Cornell University Big Red	1	9.27 school +0.25, home +0.40	Clark Uhl / Diana Otis 3.05 Connor Kelter / Kimberly Wong 2.89 Thomas Balk / Adeline Sutton 2.66	79%	14–1 (93%)	+2.2
2	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	3	8.55	Kyle Comerford / Skye Miller 3.10 Zachary Hill / Timothy Montera 3.22 John Lawless / Brian Buckley 2.25	62%	10–5 (67%)	+0.7
3	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	2	8.59 school −0.32	Charles Lomax / Vincent Storino 3.44 Ryan Hunter / Kieran Cullen 2.61 Carrson Pearce / Garrett Lawlor 2.81 8–4 Carrson Pearce / Luke Welker 2.79 0–3	63%	8–7 (53%)	−1.4
4	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5	7.85 school +0.06	Keen Butcher / Greta Morrissette 2.28 Joseph Laforgia / Lucy Sergeant 2.54 Nicholas Floyd / Dana Hackett 2.92	45%	7–8 (47%)	+0.3
5	Fordham University Rams	4	8.06 school +0.20	Brad Seferian / Annika Ekholm 2.33 Tucker Hersam / Katherine Jones 2.61 2–8 Roberto Stevens / Cortney Rielly 2.96 4–4 Eduardo Mintzias / Lauren Holderman 2.72 2–4	55%	4–8 (33%)	−2.6
6	Christopher Newport University Captains	6	6.57 school −0.05	Javier Gonzalez Rotge / Kaitlyn Reilly 2.07 Spencer Charney / Henry Clune 2.24 2–6 Vir Menon / Anna Patterson 2.31 2–6 Spencer Charney / Bailey Hurst 2.20 1–3 Vir Menon / Henry Clune 2.24 1–3	23%	3–9 (25%)	+0.2
7	University of Virginia Wahoos	7	5.73 school +0.14	Colin Suvak / Colleen Roney 2.56 Alexander Singh / Skyler Nuelle 1.96 Ian Palmer / Katie Purcell 0.98 0–8 Katie Purcell / Brian Lithen 2–2	11%	2–10 (17%)	+0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Cornell University	9.27	10.66	14–1	11.8	+1.40	1.9	13%
7	University of Virginia	5.73	6.29	2–10	1.3	+0.56	0.3	38%
2	SUNY Maritime College	8.55	8.79	10–5	9.3	+0.23	0.1	47%
6	Christopher Newport University	6.57	6.71	3–9	2.8	+0.15	0.0	56%
4	University of Pennsylvania	7.85	7.94	7–8	6.7	+0.09	0.0	55%
3	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	8.59	8.10	8–7	9.4	−0.49	0.5	88%
5	Fordham University	8.06	6.82	4–8	6.6	−1.24	2.3	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Katie Purcell	University of Virginia	0.92	3.79	2–2	0.3	+2.87	4.4	2%
Clark Uhl	Cornell University	3.05	4.45	14–1	11.8	+1.40	1.9	13%
Connor Kelter	Cornell University	2.89	4.29	14–1	11.8	+1.40	1.9	13%
Colin Suvak	University of Virginia	2.56	3.12	2–10	1.3	+0.56	0.3	38%
Alexander Singh	University of Virginia	1.96	2.51	2–10	1.3	+0.56	0.3	38%
Zachary Hill	SUNY Maritime College	3.22	3.46	10–5	9.3	+0.23	0.1	47%
John Lawless	SUNY Maritime College	2.25	2.48	10–5	9.3	+0.23	0.1	47%
Javier Gonzalez Rotge	Christopher Newport University	2.07	2.22	3–9	2.8	+0.15	0.0	56%
Vir Menon	Christopher Newport University	2.31	2.46	3–9	2.8	+0.15	0.0	56%
Keen Butcher	University of Pennsylvania	2.28	2.37	7–8	6.7	+0.09	0.0	55%
Joseph Laforgia	University of Pennsylvania	2.54	2.64	7–8	6.7	+0.09	0.0	55%
Roberto Stevens	Fordham University	2.96	2.72	4–4	4.4	−0.24	0.1	76%
Charles Lomax	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	3.44	2.95	8–7	9.4	−0.49	0.5	88%
Carrson Pearce	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	2.81	2.32	8–7	9.4	−0.49	0.5	88%
Eduardo Mintzias	Fordham University	2.72	0.68	2–4	3.9	−2.04	3.0	>99%
Ian Palmer	University of Virginia	0.98	-2.02	0–8	1.0	≤−3.00	1.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Christopher Newport University	University of Virginia	72%
1	2	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	58%
1	3	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	50%
1	4	Cornell University	Christopher Newport University	93%
1	5	University of Pennsylvania	University of Virginia	89%
1	6	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Fordham University	61%
1	7	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	67%
1	8	University of Pennsylvania	Christopher Newport University	77%
1	9	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	University of Virginia	95%
1	10	SUNY Maritime College	Fordham University	61%
1	11	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	81%
1	12	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Christopher Newport University	88%
1	13	SUNY Maritime College	University of Virginia	94%
1	14	Cornell University	Fordham University	80%
1	15	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	32%	upset
1	16	SUNY Maritime College	Christopher Newport University	89%
1	17	University of Virginia	Fordham University	10%	upset
1	18	Cornell University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	66%
1	19	SUNY Maritime College	University of Pennsylvania	67%
1	20	Fordham University	Christopher Newport University	85%
1	21	Cornell University	University of Virginia	97%
2	22	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	University of Pennsylvania	68%
2	23	Fordham University	SUNY Maritime College	39%	upset
2	24	Christopher Newport University	University of Virginia	70%
2	25	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	80%
2	26	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	49%	upset
2	27	University of Virginia	Fordham University	10%	upset
2	28	Cornell University	Christopher Newport University	93%
2	29	University of Pennsylvania	SUNY Maritime College	33%	upset
2	30	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	University of Virginia	94%
2	31	Fordham University	Christopher Newport University	85%
2	32	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	67%
2	33	University of Pennsylvania	University of Virginia	89%
2	34	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Christopher Newport University	88%
2	35	Cornell University	Fordham University	80%
2	36	SUNY Maritime College	University of Virginia	94%
2	37	University of Pennsylvania	Christopher Newport University	78%
2	38	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Fordham University	62%
2	39	Cornell University	University of Virginia	97%
2	40	Christopher Newport University	SUNY Maritime College	12%	upset
2	41	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	44%	upset
2	42	Cornell University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	66%
3	43	SUNY Maritime College	University of Pennsylvania	66%
3	44	Cornell University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	66%
3	45	SUNY Maritime College	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	49%	upset
3	46	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	80%
3	47	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	University of Pennsylvania	68%
3	48	SUNY Maritime College	Cornell University	33%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Red	Privateers	Mariners	Quakers	Rams	Captains	Wahoos
Cornell University Big Red	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	5–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	3–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–3	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Fordham University Rams	2–4	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L
Christopher Newport University Captains	1–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	1–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Red	Privateers	Mariners	Quakers	Rams	Captains	Wahoos
Cornell University Big Red	6–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	2–4	L	✕	W	L	L	L	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	4–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Fordham University Rams	2–4	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L
Christopher Newport University Captains	2–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Virginia Wahoos	1–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Red	Privateers	Mariners	Quakers
Cornell University Big Red	2–1	✕	L	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	3–0	W	✕	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	1–2	L	L	✕	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Captains	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
2	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
3	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
4	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
5	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Wahoos	2-5-6
6	Mariners	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
7	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Privateers	3-4-5
8	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
9	Mariners	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
10	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
11	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
12	Mariners	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
13	Privateers	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
14	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
15	Quakers	2-3-5	def.	Mariners	1-4-6
16	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
17	Wahoos	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
18	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
19	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
20	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Captains	1-5-6
21	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Wahoos	3-5-6
22	Mariners	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
23	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
24	Captains	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
25	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
26	Privateers	1-3-4	def.	Mariners	2-5-6
27	Wahoos	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
28	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Captains	1-5-6
29	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Privateers	2-5-6
30	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
31	Rams	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
32	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
33	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
34	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
35	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
36	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Wahoos	3-4-6
37	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Captains	1-5-6
38	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
39	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Wahoos	4-5-6
40	Captains	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
41	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
42	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
43	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
44	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
45	Privateers	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
46	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
47	Mariners	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
48	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Cornell University	Big Red	Clark Uhl '19 Connor Kelter '18 Thomas Balk '18	Diana Otis '19 Kimberly Wong '19 Adeline Sutton '21
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	John Lawless '19 Kyle Comerford '19 Zachary Hill '18	Brian Buckley '21 Skye Miller '19 Timothy Montera '18
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Carrson Pearce '21 Charles Lomax '18 Ryan Hunter '21	Garrett Lawlor '20 Luke Welker '21 Vincent Storino '18 Kieran Cullen '21
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Joseph Laforgia '21 Keen Butcher '18 Nicholas Floyd '19	Lucy Sergeant '18 Greta Morrissette '21 Dana Hackett '20
Fordham University	Rams	Brad Seferian '19 Eduardo Mintzias '21 Roberto Stevens '19 Tucker Hersam '20	Annika Ekholm '20 Lauren Holderman '18 Cortney Rielly '20 Katherine Jones '18
Christopher Newport University	Captains	Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 Spencer Charney '20 Vir Menon '20	Kaitlyn Reilly '18 Henry Clune '21 Bailey Hurst '20 Anna Patterson '20
University of Virginia	Wahoos	Alexander Singh '19 Colin Suvak '19 Ian Palmer '19 Katie Purcell '20	Skyler Nuelle '21 Colleen Roney '18 Katie Purcell '20 Brian Lithen '20

Conditions — 03/31/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 39% · Pressure 1021.2 hPa

Temperature

45°F

↑ 53°F ↓ 28°F

Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.7 kn

avg · max 10.2 kn

Gusts to 24.9 kn

From SSW (197°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover36% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity39% Pressure1021.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Cornell — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Cornell in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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