Fordham University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.83 (fleet 3.90) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–49 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 9–15 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 4 | 26–15 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 10–19 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (94 matches) the record is 45–49 against 44.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-07 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | skipper | 3.23 | 3.43 | 2–7 | 1.7 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2020-02-29 | Georgetown Team Race | skipper | 3.34 | 2.79 | 7–8 | 8.5 | −0.55 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 2019-03-23 | Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.22 | 3.91 | 3–6 | 1.9 | +0.69 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 2019-03-16 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 3.15 | 3.32 | 6–3 | 5.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2019-03-09 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.94 | 3.61 | 7–4 | 5.8 | +0.67 | 0.6 | 30% |
| 2019-03-02 | The Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 3.05 | 2.78 | 10–2 | 10.4 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2018-03-31 | Team Race Challenge | skipper | 2.72 | 0.68 | 2–4 | 3.9 | −2.04 | 3.0 | >99% |
| 2018-03-17 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 2.80 | 2.88 | 3–6 | 2.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2018-03-10 | Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.40 | 2.77 | 5–9 | 3.9 | +0.38 | 0.3 | 35% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Georgetown Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.7 | 4.21 |
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase Qualifier A | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.8 | 3.90 |
| Top MAISA Coed | Skipper | A | 5 | 6.0 | 3.32 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 11 | 64% | — |
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.4 | 4.54 |
| Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| 2019 Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.0 | 3.33 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.2 | 3.52 |
| Top 9 Regatta Coed | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.1 | 2.78 |
| MAISA Match Race Championship | Crew | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| Jesuit Invitational | Skipper | A | 1 | 3.0 | — |
| The Coed Showcase A Regatta | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.6 | 3.32 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Team Race Challenge | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.9 | 3.77 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.5 | 3.01 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.8 | 3.85 |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.6 | 3.00 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.0 | 3.88 |
| St. Mary's Fall InterConference | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.2 | 3.40 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.6 | 3.62 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.6 | 3.91 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.6 | 3.34 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
