| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 15–0 |
| 2 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 11–4 |
| 3 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 7–8 |
| 4 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 5–10 |
| 5 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 4–11 |
| 6 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Captains | 3–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 14,383 team race matches sailed before 2020-02-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 38 of 45 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.418 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.16 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 61% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Georgetown University | 11.70 | 14.70 | 15–0 | 13.8 | ≥+3.00 | 1.7 | 28% |
| 2 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 9.86 | 10.72 | 11–4 | 9.0 | +0.86 | 1.2 | 17% |
| 6 | Christopher Newport University | 7.73 | 8.15 | 3–12 | 2.2 | +0.41 | 0.2 | 38% |
| 4 | Old Dominion University | 8.54 | 8.76 | 5–10 | 4.4 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 47% |
| 3 | Fordham University | 9.72 | 9.17 | 7–8 | 8.5 | −0.55 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 5 | Cornell University | 9.20 | 7.88 | 4–11 | 7.1 | −1.31 | 2.8 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Logue | Georgetown University | 3.72 | 6.72 | 15–0 | 13.8 | ≥+3.00 | 1.7 | 28% |
| Joshua Paper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.73 | 3.58 | 11–4 | 9.0 | +0.86 | 1.2 | 17% |
| Lewis Cooper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.40 | 4.26 | 11–4 | 9.0 | +0.86 | 1.2 | 17% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | Christopher Newport University | 2.79 | 3.20 | 3–12 | 2.2 | +0.41 | 0.2 | 38% |
| Vir Menon | Christopher Newport University | 2.67 | 2.73 | 2–10 | 1.9 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | Fordham University | 3.34 | 2.79 | 7–8 | 8.5 | −0.55 | 0.6 | 89% |
| Gabby Rizika | Cornell University | 3.09 | 1.78 | 4–11 | 7.1 | −1.31 | 2.8 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Seahawks | Rams | Monarchs | Red | Captains | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 1–4 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | L |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 2–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 2–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 1–4 | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Seahawks | Rams | Monarchs | Red | Captains | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 2–3 | L | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | ✕ | L |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hoyas | Seahawks | Rams | Monarchs | Red | Captains | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 4–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 1–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Cornell University Big Red | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 1–4 | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Big Red | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-4-6 DNF |
| 3 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Rams | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Captains | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Captains | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 16 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Big Red | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-3-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Rams | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Hoyas | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Monarchs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams | 2-3-6 |
| 24 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Captains | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Red | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Captains | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Captains | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Monarchs | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Captains | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Rams | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-3-6 |
| 42 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Rams | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Captains | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Georgetown University | Hoyas | Jack Reiter '22 Sean Segerblom '20 William Logue '20 |
Marley Mais '21 Caroline Teare '21 Jack Hogan '22 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Joshua Paper '20 Leo Boucher '22 Lewis Cooper '21 |
Sam Muir '22 Lucas Masiello '23 Ashley Wagner '20 Sophia Taczak '21 |
|
Fordham University | Rams | Eduardo Mintzias '21 Porter Kavle '22 Tucker Hersam '20 |
Edward Harrison '22 Brigid Murphy '20 Cortney Rielly '20 |
|
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | Bridget Groble '22 Dreugh Phillips '21 Parker Purrington '24 |
Raymond Domena '23 Emily Harrison '21 Beau Seibel '23 |
|
Cornell University | Big Red | Brooke Shachoy '22 Gabby Rizika '20 Phillip Schofield '21 |
Ethan Andersen '20 Adeline Sutton '21 Ana Schonander '20 |
|
Christopher Newport University | Captains | Brian Fox '23 Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 Spencer Charney '20 Vir Menon '20 |
Heath Stockton '22 Bailey Hurst '20 Alesha Darling '20 Anna Patterson '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
