| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 12–3 |
| 2 |  |
Fordham University | Rams 1 | 10–5 |
| 3 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 10–5 |
| 4 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 7–8 |
| 5 | |
Fordham University | Rams 2 | 6–9 |
| 6 |  |
Washington College | Shoremen | 0–15 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,533 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 45 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.423 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.10 ± 0.29: a typical event, more orderly than 53% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Washington University Colonials | 8.08 | 9.32 | 12–3 | 9.0 | +1.24 | 2.5 | 6% |
| 4 | University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 7.19 | 7.63 | 7–8 | 5.9 | +0.44 | 0.3 | 34% |
| 2 | Fordham University Rams 1 | 8.40 | 8.25 | 10–5 | 10.4 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 5 | Fordham University Rams 2 | 7.37 | 6.94 | 6–9 | 7.1 | −0.44 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 3 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 9.04 | 8.24 | 10–5 | 11.9 | −0.80 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 6 | Washington College Shoremen | 4.50 | 1.50 | 0–15 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Bennett | George Washington University | 2.25 | 3.49 | 12–3 | 9.0 | +1.24 | 2.5 | 6% |
| Amanda Majernik | University of Pennsylvania | 2.49 | 2.93 | 7–8 | 5.9 | +0.44 | 0.3 | 34% |
| Clayton Snyder | Fordham University | 2.34 | 2.52 | 9–3 | 8.7 | +0.18 | 0.0 | 55% |
| Eduardo Mintzias | Fordham University | 3.15 | 3.32 | 6–3 | 5.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 56% |
| Thomas Cooper | Fordham University | 2.19 | 1.76 | 6–9 | 7.1 | −0.44 | 0.3 | 84% |
| Andrew Vernon | Washington College | 1.25 | -1.75 | 0–15 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Paul Hart | Washington College | 1.74 | -1.26 | 0–15 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| Henry Proud | Washington College | 1.29 | -1.71 | 0–15 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Colonials | 1 | Midshipmen | Quakers | 2 | Shoremen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Washington University Colonials | 4–1 | ✕ | W | L | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams 1 | 5–5 | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–1 | W | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Fordham University Rams 2 | 5–5 | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Colonials | 1 | Midshipmen | Quakers | 2 | Shoremen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Washington University Colonials | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams 1 | 5–5 | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 1–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Fordham University Rams 2 | 5–5 | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Colonials | 1 | Midshipmen | Quakers | 2 | Shoremen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Washington University Colonials | 3–2 | ✕ | L | W | L | L | W |
| Fordham University Rams 1 | 6–4 | W | ✕ | L | W | ✕ | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 2–3 | L | W | ✕ | L | W | W |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 4–1 | W | L | W | ✕ | L | W |
| Fordham University Rams 2 | 6–4 | W | ✕ | L | W | ✕ | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Quakers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
Rams 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Colonials | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Rams 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Rams 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Rams 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Midshipmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 12 | |
Colonials | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Midshipmen | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Rams 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rams 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Colonials | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-4-6 DSQ |
| 17 | |
Rams 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Rams 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Rams 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Rams 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 1-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Quakers | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Rams 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Quakers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Midshipmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 27 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Colonials | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Rams 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Rams 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Quakers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 33 | |
Rams 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 2-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Colonials | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Rams 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 2-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Rams 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 2-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Quakers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 2-3-6 |
| 39 | |
Rams 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Quakers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Rams 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 43 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Rams 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rams 2 | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
George Washington University | Colonials | Andrew Bennett '19 Cameron Feves '22 Soenke Jordan '21 |
Chiara Perotti Correa '22 Keily Gleason '19 Jack Umina '22 |
|
Fordham University | Rams 1 | Clayton Snyder '22 Eduardo Mintzias '21 Porter Kavle '22 Thomas Capozzi '19 |
Sarah Jackman '21 Makena Masterson '19 Brigid Murphy '20 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | Gray Benson '22 Nicholas Gartner '20 Tyler Fleig '19 |
Madeline Pruzan '21 Fiona Lobon '22 Anna Cutler '20 |
|
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | Amanda Majernik '22 Lenox Butcher '20 Tanner Probst '21 |
Lauren Nguyen '22 Jenna Weiner '21 Adam Hano '23 |
|
Fordham University | Rams 2 | Charlotte Leclue '19 Grace Howie '20 Thomas Cooper '19 |
Maggie Costikyan '22 Matthew Alfano '21 Elizabeth Hupp '21 Paige Hoffman '21 |
|
Washington College | Shoremen | Andrew Vernon '20 Henry Proud '21 Paul Hart '19 |
John Mecca '21 Eloise Lienert '20 Lindsay Fullerton '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
