Fordham University '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.77 (fleet 2.43) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–25 (36%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 6–9 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 8–16 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (39 matches) the record is 14–25 against 9.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-16 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.19 | 1.76 | 6–9 | 7.1 | −0.44 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2018-03-24 | Seahawk Team Race Invite | skipper | 1.60 | 3.27 | 8–16 | 2.5 | +1.67 | 7.4 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 13 | 12.2 | 2.20 |
| Southern Collegiate Offshore Regatta (SCOR) B Div Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 5.0 | — |
| OCC Spring Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.8 | 2.25 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| MAISA North Series Regatta | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.8 | 2.70 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Seahawk Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| Owen/Mosbacher/Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.6 | 3.23 |
| Greater NY Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.3 | 3.05 |
| Central Spring Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.8 | 3.30 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 13 | 16.5 | 0.80 |
| SHU TROPHY | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.8 | 2.12 |
| Kings Point Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.5 | 2.05 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Spring Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 2.25 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sacred Heart Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.1 | 1.36 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | C | 11 | 17.1 | 0.55 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 18 | 14.1 | 1.77 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 18 | 14.7 | 1.09 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
