Seahawk Team Race Invite

HostSt. Mary's
Date03/24/2018
TypeScrimmage
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	United States of America	United States of Ame	7–3
2	College of Charleston	Cougars	7–3
3	George Washington University	Colonials	4–6
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	2–8
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	2–8
6	Fordham University	Rams	0–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,346 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-24, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 60 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.858 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.31 ± 0.23: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 1% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
2	College of Charleston Cougars	1	9.53 school +0.43	Jack Brown / Oliver Parsons 2.88 Charles Willard / Mccloy Dickson Steven Leuck / Payton Alexander 3.12	83%	16–8 (67%)	−4.0
3	George Washington University Colonials	2	8.64 school +0.18	Miranda Bakos / Michael Houllahan Adam Didomizio / Andreea Rainey-Pace 2.75 Soenke Jordan / Zachary Lehan 2.78	65%	12–12 (50%)	−3.6
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4	7.07 school +0.15	Jimmy Madigan / Karma Richards 2.83 Madeline Pruzan Nicholas Gartner / Holly Koerwer 2.80	30%	12–12 (50%)	+4.8
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3	8.48 school +0.45, home +0.39	Lewis Cooper / Sophia Taczak 2.90 Joshua Paper / Allison Gingerich 2.44 Ellie Ungar / Ashley Wagner	62%	12–12 (50%)	−2.8
6	Fordham University Rams	5	5.96	Thomas Cooper / Makena Masterson Thomas Capozzi / Jacqueline Tobin 1.75 Grace Howie / Elizabeth Hupp 2.23	10%	8–16 (33%)	+5.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	Fordham University	5.96	7.63	8–16	2.5	+1.67	7.4	<1%
4	U. S. Naval Academy	7.07	8.30	12–12	7.2	+1.23	4.5	1%
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	8.48	7.80	12–12	14.8	−0.68	1.4	95%
3	George Washington University	8.64	7.77	12–12	15.6	−0.88	2.3	98%
2	College of Charleston	9.53	8.46	16–8	20.0	−1.07	3.3	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Thomas Cooper	Fordham University	1.60	3.27	8–16	2.5	+1.67	7.4	<1%
Jimmy Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	2.83	4.05	12–12	7.2	+1.23	4.5	1%
Lewis Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.90	2.22	12–12	14.8	−0.68	1.4	95%
Joshua Paper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.44	1.75	12–12	14.8	−0.68	1.4	95%
Adam Didomizio	George Washington University	2.75	1.87	12–12	15.6	−0.88	2.3	98%
Jack Brown	College of Charleston	2.88	1.81	16–8	20.0	−1.07	3.3	99%
Charles Willard	College of Charleston	2.71	1.64	16–8	20.0	−1.07	3.3	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	George Washington University	U. S. Naval Academy	82%
1	2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	93%
1	4	George Washington University	Fordham University	94%
1	6	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	71%
1	8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	44%	upset
1	9	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	91%
1	11	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	77%
1	12	College of Charleston	George Washington University	68%
1	13	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	79%
1	15	College of Charleston	Fordham University	97%
2	16	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	17%	upset
2	17	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	93%
2	19	George Washington University	Fordham University	94%
2	21	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
2	23	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	55%
2	24	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	92%
2	26	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	76%
2	27	College of Charleston	George Washington University	70%
2	28	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	20%	upset
2	30	College of Charleston	Fordham University	97%
3	31	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	17%	upset
3	32	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	93%
3	34	George Washington University	Fordham University	94%
3	36	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	74%
3	38	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	54%
3	39	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	8%	upset
3	41	Fordham University	U. S. Naval Academy	25%	upset
3	42	College of Charleston	George Washington University	71%
3	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	81%
3	45	Fordham University	College of Charleston	3%	upset
4	46	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	17%	upset
4	47	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	93%
4	49	George Washington University	Fordham University	93%
4	51	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	74%
4	53	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	53%
4	54	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	8%	upset
4	56	Fordham University	U. S. Naval Academy	26%	upset
4	57	College of Charleston	George Washington University	72%
4	58	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	81%
4	60	Fordham University	College of Charleston	3%	upset
5	61	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	17%	upset
5	62	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	92%
5	64	George Washington University	Fordham University	93%
5	66	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	74%
5	68	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	53%
5	69	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	7%	upset
5	71	Fordham University	U. S. Naval Academy	26%	upset
5	72	College of Charleston	George Washington University	72%
5	73	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	81%
5	75	Fordham University	College of Charleston	3%	upset
6	76	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	17%	upset
6	77	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	92%
6	79	George Washington University	Fordham University	93%
6	81	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	74%
6	83	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	52%
6	84	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	7%	upset
6	86	Fordham University	U. S. Naval Academy	27%	upset
6	87	College of Charleston	George Washington University	73%
6	88	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	82%
6	90	Fordham University	College of Charleston	3%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Ame	Cougars	Colonials	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Rams
United States of America United States of Ame	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	5–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	2–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–2	L	L	W	W	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Ame	Cougars	Colonials	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Rams
United States of America United States of Ame	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	2–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Ame	Cougars	Colonials	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Rams
United States of America United States of Ame	3–2	✕	W	W	L	W	L
College of Charleston Cougars	2–3	L	✕	W	L	W	L
George Washington University Colonials	2–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–2	W	W	W	✕	L	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	3–2	W	W	L	W	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Ame	Cougars	Colonials	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Rams
United States of America United States of Ame	3–2	✕	W	W	L	W	L
College of Charleston Cougars	2–3	L	✕	W	L	W	L
George Washington University Colonials	2–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–2	W	W	W	✕	L	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	3–2	W	W	L	W	L	✕

Round 5

Team	Rec.	Ame	Cougars	Colonials	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Rams
United States of America United States of Ame	3–2	✕	W	W	L	W	L
College of Charleston Cougars	2–3	L	✕	W	L	W	L
George Washington University Colonials	2–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–2	W	W	W	✕	L	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	3–2	W	W	L	W	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Ame	Cougars	Colonials	Midshipmen	Seahawks	Rams
United States of America United States of Ame	3–2	✕	W	W	L	W	L
College of Charleston Cougars	2–3	L	✕	W	L	W	L
George Washington University Colonials	2–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–2	W	W	W	✕	L	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	3–2	W	W	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Colonials	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
2	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
3	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	United States of Ame	2-3-6
4	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
5	United States of Ame	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
6	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
7	United States of Ame	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
8	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
9	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
10	United States of Ame	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
11	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
12	Cougars	1-4-5	def.	Colonials	2-3-6
13	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
14	United States of Ame	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
15	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
16	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
17	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
18	United States of Ame	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
19	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
20	United States of Ame	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
21	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
22	United States of Ame	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
23	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
24	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
25	United States of Ame	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
26	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
27	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
28	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
29	United States of Ame	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
30	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
31	Midshipmen		def.	Colonials
32	Seahawks		def.	Rams
33	United States of Ame		def.	Cougars
34	Colonials		def.	Rams
35	Midshipmen		def.	United States of Ame
36	Cougars		def.	Seahawks
37	Rams		def.	United States of Ame
38	Colonials		def.	Seahawks
39	Midshipmen		def.	Cougars
40	United States of Ame		def.	Seahawks
41	Rams		def.	Midshipmen
42	Cougars		def.	Colonials
43	Seahawks		def.	Midshipmen
44	United States of Ame		def.	Colonials
45	Rams		def.	Cougars
46	Midshipmen		def.	Colonials
47	Seahawks		def.	Rams
48	United States of Ame		def.	Cougars
49	Colonials		def.	Rams
50	Midshipmen		def.	United States of Ame
51	Cougars		def.	Seahawks
52	Rams		def.	United States of Ame
53	Colonials		def.	Seahawks
54	Midshipmen		def.	Cougars
55	United States of Ame		def.	Seahawks
56	Rams		def.	Midshipmen
57	Cougars		def.	Colonials
58	Seahawks		def.	Midshipmen
59	United States of Ame		def.	Colonials
60	Rams		def.	Cougars
61	Midshipmen		def.	Colonials
62	Seahawks		def.	Rams
63	United States of Ame		def.	Cougars
64	Colonials		def.	Rams
65	Midshipmen		def.	United States of Ame
66	Cougars		def.	Seahawks
67	Rams		def.	United States of Ame
68	Colonials		def.	Seahawks
69	Midshipmen		def.	Cougars
70	United States of Ame		def.	Seahawks
71	Rams		def.	Midshipmen
72	Cougars		def.	Colonials
73	Seahawks		def.	Midshipmen
74	United States of Ame		def.	Colonials
75	Rams		def.	Cougars
76	Midshipmen		def.	Colonials
77	Seahawks		def.	Rams
78	United States of Ame		def.	Cougars
79	Colonials		def.	Rams
80	Midshipmen		def.	United States of Ame
81	Cougars		def.	Seahawks
82	Rams		def.	United States of Ame
83	Colonials		def.	Seahawks
84	Midshipmen		def.	Cougars
85	United States of Ame		def.	Seahawks
86	Rams		def.	Midshipmen
87	Cougars		def.	Colonials
88	Seahawks		def.	Midshipmen
89	United States of Ame		def.	Colonials
90	Rams		def.	Cougars

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Charles Willard '19 Jack Brown '21 Steven Leuck '20	Mccloy Dickson '19 Oliver Parsons '21 Payton Alexander '19
George Washington University	Colonials	Adam Didomizio '19 Miranda Bakos '18 Soenke Jordan '21	Andreea Rainey-Pace '20 Michael Houllahan '20 Zachary Lehan '20
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Jimmy Madigan '18 Madeline Pruzan '21 Nicholas Gartner '20	Karma Richards '20 Holly Koerwer '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Ellie Ungar '19 Joshua Paper '20 Lewis Cooper '21	Ashley Wagner '20 Allison Gingerich '21 Sophia Taczak '21
Fordham University	Rams	Grace Howie '20 Thomas Capozzi '19 Thomas Cooper '19	Elizabeth Hupp '21 Jacqueline Tobin '20 Makena Masterson '19

Conditions — 03/24/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 52% · Pressure 1022.2 hPa

Temperature

42°F

↑ 46°F ↓ 34°F

Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.3 kn

avg · max 7.8 kn

Gusts to 17.9 kn

From NNE (22°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity52% Pressure1022.2 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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