Washington College '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.97 (fleet 1.34) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–25 (7%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 2–25 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 2–25 against 1.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-16 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.29 | -1.71 | 0–15 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.8 | >99% |
| 2019-03-02 | The Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 0.87 | 1.74 | 2–10 | 1.0 | +0.87 | 0.7 | 27% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| The Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.9 | 0.15 |
| Leroy Grant | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.2 | 2.42 |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A, C | 15 | 9.5 | -1.67 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 14.5 | 1.28 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 14 | 15.2 | 1.04 |
| Princeton Fall Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.9 | 0.93 |
| Coho Memorial | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.3 | -0.45 |
| Central Late Fall | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.6 | 0.91 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 16.0 | 0.99 |
| Henry Luce Trophy - MAISA | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.2 | -0.07 |
| Colony Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.7 | 2.75 |
| Central Fall Open | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.7 | 2.60 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
