Princeton Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 20 19 39
2 Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 16 33 49
3 Washington College Washington College Shoremen 27 22 49
4 Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 29 33 62
5 Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 30 35 65
6 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 43 23 66
7 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 50 46 96
8 Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 57 MRP 61 MRP 118 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 1 1 2 1 3 4 4 16 Nina Van De Vaarst '19
Bronson Gallagher '21
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 2 7 3 4 2 1 1 20 Anne Sidamon-Eristoff '20 [1-2]
Zak Dasaro '21 [3-7]
Devin Sun '21 [1-2]
Todd Gilman '20 [3-4]
Carla Dias '21 [5-7]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 3 6 1 2 8 2 5 27 Henry Proud '21
Lindsay Fullerton '21
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 5 4 4 3 4 7 2 29 Liam Daniel '22
Galen Ng '20
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 4 2 5 5 1 6 7 30 Ian Taylor '18
Liam Ryan '22
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 7 3 6 7 7 5 8 43 Charles Johnson '19
Kyelee Fitts '20
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 8 8 7 8 5 8 6 50 Stephen Young '21
Paula Cabot Jaume '22
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 6 5 8 6 6 3 3 57 MRP Edgard Sanchez '19 [1-2, 5-7]
Jack Harrington '22 [3-4]
Karina Stech '21 [1-2]
Adam Warner '22 [3-4, 7]
Suzanne Link '19 [5-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 1 1 4 3 3 4 3 19 Connor Larson '22 [1-2]
Elizabeth Bailey '21 [3-7]
Adam Mcclain '21 [1-2]
Ernest Ruehl '19 [3-4, 7]
William Cowen-Breen '22 [5-6]
Washington College Washington College Shoremen 2 5 1 1 2 3 8 22 Haber Carlson '21
Jessie Ngo '21
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 6 2 3 2 1 2 7 23 David Treatman '20
Zoe Chan '22
Webb Institute Webb Institute Clippers 3 7 2 4 5 7 5 33 Rudy Caligure '22 [1-4, 7]
Nathan Johnson '22 [5-6]
Nathan Johnson '22 [1-4, 7]
Rudy Caligure '22 [5-6]
Monmouth University Monmouth University Hawks 5 6 8 8 4 1 1 33 Katherine Foley '19 [1-2, 7]
Veronica Lane '19 [3-6]
Veronica Lane '19 [1-2, 7]
Katherine Foley '19 [3-6]
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers 4 4 6 6 6 5 4 35 Liam Ryan '22 [1-6]
William Siegener '23 [7]
William Siegener '23 [1-6]
Liam Ryan '22 [7]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 8 8 5 5 8 6 6 46 James Giebel '21
John Antoni '22
Rutgers University Rutgers University Scarlet Knights 7 3 7 7 7 8 2 61 MRP Sophia Rosahl '23 [1-2, 5-7]
Emily Pooley '19 [3-4]
Michaela Diflorio '22 [1-2]
Alim Memon '21 [3-4, 7]
Elizabeth Lee '20 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions1133557
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons2244668
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks3355771
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers4466882
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers5577113
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights6688224
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen7711335
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers8822446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions2244668
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons3355771
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Hawks4466882
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers5577113
Rochester Institute of TechnologyRochester Institute of Technology Tigers6688224
Rutgers UniversityRutgers University Scarlet Knights7711335
Washington CollegeWashington College Shoremen8822446
Webb InstituteWebb Institute Clippers1133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
Columbia University Columbia University Charles Johnson '19 Kyelee Fitts '20
Lions David Treatman '20 Zoe Chan '22
Drexel University Drexel University Stephen Young '21 Paula Cabot Jaume '22
Dragons James Giebel '21 John Antoni '22
Monmouth University Monmouth University Nina Van De Vaarst '19 Bronson Gallagher '21
Hawks Katherine Foley '19 [1-2, 7]
Veronica Lane '19 [3-6]
Veronica Lane '19 [1-2, 7]
Katherine Foley '19 [3-6]
Princeton University Princeton University Anne Sidamon-Eristoff '20 [1-2]
Zak Dasaro '21 [3-7]
Devin Sun '21 [1-2]
Todd Gilman '20 [3-4]
Carla Dias '21 [5-7]
Tigers Connor Larson '22 [1-2]
Elizabeth Bailey '21 [3-7]
Adam Mcclain '21 [1-2]
Ernest Ruehl '19 [3-4, 7]
William Cowen-Breen '22 [5-6]
Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester Institute of Technology Ian Taylor '18 Liam Ryan '22
Tigers Liam Ryan '22 [1-6]
William Siegener '23 [7]
William Siegener '23 [1-6]
Liam Ryan '22 [7]
Rutgers University Rutgers University Edgard Sanchez '19 [1-2, 5-7]
Jack Harrington '22 [3-4]
Karina Stech '21 [1-2]
Adam Warner '22 [3-4, 7]
Suzanne Link '19 [5-6]
Scarlet Knights Sophia Rosahl '23 [1-2, 5-7]
Emily Pooley '19 [3-4]
Michaela Diflorio '22 [1-2]
Alim Memon '21 [3-4, 7]
Elizabeth Lee '20 [5-6]
Washington College Washington College Henry Proud '21 Lindsay Fullerton '21
Shoremen Haber Carlson '21 Jessie Ngo '21
Webb Institute Webb Institute Liam Daniel '22 Galen Ng '20
Clippers Rudy Caligure '22 [1-4, 7]
Nathan Johnson '22 [5-6]
Nathan Johnson '22 [1-4, 7]
Rudy Caligure '22 [5-6]

Conditions — 09/29/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1022.1 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 5.9 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From NW (313°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover20% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1022.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 7 kn · S 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Princeton: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.04
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.59 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Princeton by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Princeton, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →