Henry Luce Trophy - MAISA

HostCornell
Date10/14/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Hampton University	Pirates	23	13	36
2	Christopher Newport University	Captains	17	27	44
3	Cornell University	Big Red	27	31	58
4	Columbia University	Lions	45	29	74
5	Villanova University	Wildcats	47	50	97
6	Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	49	53	102
7	University of Virginia	Wahoos	38	76	114
8	Drexel University	Dragons	80	60	140
9	Greyhounds	Greyhounds	47	95	142
10	Princeton University	Tigers	90	70	160
11	William and Mary	Tribe	54	107	161
12	Syracuse University	Orange	97	67	164
13	Virginia Tech	Hokies	111	55	166
14	Monmouth University	Monmouth	85	87	172
15	Washington College	Shoremen	103	73	176
16	University of Rochester	Yellowjackets	66	111	177
17	Rochester Institute of Technology	Tigers	104	97	201
18	U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	115	97	212

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Christopher Newport University	Captains	5	1	1	4	1	4	1	17	Vir Menon '20 [1-6] Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 [7] Mackenzie Conner '20 [1-6] Vir Menon '20 [7]
Hampton University	Pirates	3	3	5	2	5	3	2	23	Maximilian Kuester '18 Filip Stevanovic '20
Cornell University	Big Red	1	4	3	10	3	1	5	27	Sebby Turner '20 [1-2] Ethan Andersen '20 [3-7] Ana Schonander '20 [1-2] Miranda Sannino '20 [3-7]
University of Virginia	Wahoos	2	2	2	11	10	8	3	38	Colin Suvak '19 Colleen Roney '18
Columbia University	Lions	4	5	6	5	6	11	8	45	Adam Devita '18 Bailey Fryer '18
Greyhounds	Greyhounds	8	6	14	1	4	5	9	47
Villanova University	Wildcats	14	12	4	6	2	2	7	47	Max Gillette '20 [1-7] Claire Coppola '21 [1-6] John Dyment '18 [7]
Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	10	7	8	7	7	6	4	49	Matthew Roleke '19 Peter Teague '18
William and Mary	Tribe	7	10	7	3	8	7	12	54	Miguel Monllor '21 Patrick Mazzeo '18
University of Rochester	Yellowjackets	6	9	10	9	14	12	6	66	Tyler Rochon '18 James Emery '18
Drexel University	Dragons	12	14	9	8	9	17	11	80	Madeline Delvescovo '20 Haley Clemson '20
Monmouth University	Monmouth	11	8	13	15	11	13	14	85	Kayleigh Godfrey '19 Katherine Foley '19
Princeton University	Tigers	16	13	17	12	12	10	10	90	George Kevrekidis '18 Liam Hunt '19
Syracuse University	Orange	9	11	16	17	15	16	13	97	Zachary Warner '19 [1-2] Jacob Correia '20 [3-7] John Lightcap '20 [1-2]
Washington College	Shoremen	15	17	18	16	13	9	15	103	Paul Hart '19 [1-3] Henry Proud '21 [4-7] Andrew Vernon '20 [1-2] Griffin Rodrigue '18 [3-7]
Rochester Institute of Technology	Tigers	13	15	12	13	16	DNF	16	104	Kaylie Byrnes '22 [1-6] Douglas Cochran '21 [7] Douglas Cochran '21 [1-6] Ben Wilson '19 [7]
Virginia Tech	Hokies	18	16	11	18	17	14	17	111	Noah Schalles '20 Gustav Berner '21
U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	17	18	15	14	18	15	18	115	Jacob Hare '21 James Nichols '21

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Hampton University	Pirates	1	1	5	1	1	1	3	13	Luca Taglialegne '20 Elisabeth Kuester '19
Christopher Newport University	Captains	2	2	4	3	2	3	11	27	Spencer Charney '20 [1-7] Kaitlyn Reilly '18 [1-6] Anna Patterson '20 [7]
Columbia University	Lions	3	4	1	4	5	7	5	29	Liliana Loosbrock '21 Elizabeth Keeney '19
Cornell University	Big Red	5	11	7	2	3	2	1	31	Sajan Alagiri '21 [1-3, 7] Luke Andersen '18 [4-6] Jessie Stoller '21 [1-3, 7] Ana Schonander '20 [4-6]
Villanova University	Wildcats	4	7	9	6	8	6	10	50	Curtis Aaron '21 [1-7] Cameron Hunter '21 [1-3] Austin Tipp '18 [4-7]
Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	12	8	8	9	10	4	2	53	Andrew O'Brien '19 Jesse Stevenson '19
Virginia Tech	Hokies	6	17	2	5	16	5	4	55	Nathan Gibson '19 Reid Shanabrook '22
Drexel University	Dragons	10	3	6	11	13	9	8	60	Frederick Piasecki '20 Alison Reed '21
Syracuse University	Orange	11	10	3	7	12	10	14	67	Henry Sanders '18 Regina Trejo '21
Princeton University	Tigers	8	5	11	14	11	14	7	70	Zak Dasaro '21 [1-7] Malte Londschien '19 [1-3] Noah Schochet '21 [4-7]
Washington College	Shoremen	7	9	14	8	7	RAF	9	73	William Sunkler '20 Andrew Vernon '20
University of Virginia	Wahoos	9	6	12	12	14	11	12	76	Trent Levy '21 [1-3, 7] Garrett Levy '21 [4-6] Connor Segal '20 [1-3, 7]
Monmouth University	Monmouth	16	16	10	10	17	12	6	87	Veronica Lane '19 [1-5] Nina Van De Vaarst '19 [6-7] Ryan Hallak '18 [1-5] Thomas Cahill '18 [6-7]
Greyhounds	Greyhounds	14	18	16	13	4	17	13	95
Rochester Institute of Technology	Tigers	13	13	18	15	9	13	16	97	Ian Taylor '18 Tyler Tomasik '20
U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	17	14	17	17	6	8	18	97	Nina Tucker '18 Chloe Headrick '21
William and Mary	Tribe	18	12	13	16	18	15	15	107	Nina Willms '20 Elizabeth Plaster '20
University of Rochester	Yellowjackets	15	15	15	18	15	16	17	111	Caroline Ware '20 Jieming Zhang '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.170+0.17

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (27 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
U. S. Military Academy Black Knights	12	12	12	10	10	10	8
Christopher Newport University Captains	1	1	1	3	3	3	5
Columbia University Lions	2	2	2	18	18	18	16
Cornell University Big Red	3	3	3	5	5	5	7
Drexel University Dragons	4	4	4	2	2	2	18
Hampton University Pirates	5	5	5	7	7	7	9
Greyhounds Greyhounds	6	6	6	4	4	4	2
Monmouth University Monmouth	7	7	7	9	9	9	11
Princeton University Tigers	8	8	8	6	6	6	4
Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers	9	9	9	11	11	11	13
University of Rochester Yellowjackets	13	13	13	15	15	15	17
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks	10	10	10	8	8	8	6
Syracuse University Orange	11	11	11	13	13	13	15
Villanova University Wildcats	15	15	15	17	17	17	1
University of Virginia Wahoos	14	14	14	12	12	12	10
Virginia Tech Hokies	16	16	16	14	14	14	12
Washington College Shoremen	17	17	17	1	1	1	3
William and Mary Tribe	18	18	18	16	16	16	14

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
U. S. Military Academy Black Knights	11	11	11	9	9	9	7
Christopher Newport University Captains	2	2	2	4	4	4	6
Columbia University Lions	1	1	1	17	17	17	15
Cornell University Big Red	4	4	4	6	6	6	8
Drexel University Dragons	3	3	3	1	1	1	17
Hampton University Pirates	6	6	6	8	8	8	10
Greyhounds Greyhounds	5	5	5	3	3	3	1
Monmouth University Monmouth	8	8	8	10	10	10	12
Princeton University Tigers	7	7	7	5	5	5	3
Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers	10	10	10	12	12	12	14
University of Rochester Yellowjackets	14	14	14	16	16	16	18
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks	9	9	9	7	7	7	5
Syracuse University Orange	12	12	12	14	14	14	16
Villanova University Wildcats	16	16	16	18	18	18	2
University of Virginia Wahoos	13	13	13	11	11	11	9
Virginia Tech Hokies	15	15	15	13	13	13	11
Washington College Shoremen	18	18	18	2	2	2	4
William and Mary Tribe	17	17	17	15	15	15	13

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christopher Newport University	Vir Menon '20 [1-6] Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 [7]	Mackenzie Conner '20 [1-6] Vir Menon '20 [7]
Captains	Spencer Charney '20 [1-7]	Kaitlyn Reilly '18 [1-6] Anna Patterson '20 [7]
Columbia University	Adam Devita '18	Bailey Fryer '18
Lions	Liliana Loosbrock '21	Elizabeth Keeney '19
Cornell University	Sebby Turner '20 [1-2] Ethan Andersen '20 [3-7]	Ana Schonander '20 [1-2] Miranda Sannino '20 [3-7]
Big Red	Sajan Alagiri '21 [1-3, 7] Luke Andersen '18 [4-6]	Jessie Stoller '21 [1-3, 7] Ana Schonander '20 [4-6]
Drexel University	Madeline Delvescovo '20	Haley Clemson '20
Dragons	Frederick Piasecki '20	Alison Reed '21
Hampton University	Maximilian Kuester '18	Filip Stevanovic '20
Pirates	Luca Taglialegne '20	Elisabeth Kuester '19
Monmouth University	Kayleigh Godfrey '19	Katherine Foley '19
Monmouth	Veronica Lane '19 [1-5] Nina Van De Vaarst '19 [6-7]	Ryan Hallak '18 [1-5] Thomas Cahill '18 [6-7]
Princeton University	George Kevrekidis '18	Liam Hunt '19
Tigers	Zak Dasaro '21 [1-7]	Malte Londschien '19 [1-3] Noah Schochet '21 [4-7]
Rochester Institute of Technology	Kaylie Byrnes '22 [1-6] Douglas Cochran '21 [7]	Douglas Cochran '21 [1-6] Ben Wilson '19 [7]
Tigers	Ian Taylor '18	Tyler Tomasik '20
Stevens Institute of Technology	Matthew Roleke '19	Peter Teague '18
Ducks	Andrew O'Brien '19	Jesse Stevenson '19
Syracuse University	Zachary Warner '19 [1-2] Jacob Correia '20 [3-7]	John Lightcap '20 [1-2]
Orange	Henry Sanders '18	Regina Trejo '21
U. S. Military Academy	Jacob Hare '21	James Nichols '21
Black Knights	Nina Tucker '18	Chloe Headrick '21
University of Rochester	Tyler Rochon '18	James Emery '18
Yellowjackets	Caroline Ware '20	Jieming Zhang '20
University of Virginia	Colin Suvak '19	Colleen Roney '18
Wahoos	Trent Levy '21 [1-3, 7] Garrett Levy '21 [4-6]	Connor Segal '20 [1-3, 7]
Villanova University	Max Gillette '20 [1-7]	Claire Coppola '21 [1-6] John Dyment '18 [7]
Wildcats	Curtis Aaron '21 [1-7]	Cameron Hunter '21 [1-3] Austin Tipp '18 [4-7]
Virginia Tech	Noah Schalles '20	Gustav Berner '21
Hokies	Nathan Gibson '19	Reid Shanabrook '22
Washington College	Paul Hart '19 [1-3] Henry Proud '21 [4-7]	Andrew Vernon '20 [1-2] Griffin Rodrigue '18 [3-7]
Shoremen	William Sunkler '20	Andrew Vernon '20
William and Mary	Miguel Monllor '21	Patrick Mazzeo '18
Tribe	Nina Willms '20	Elizabeth Plaster '20

Conditions — 10/14/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1022.6 hPa

Temperature

66°F

↑ 74°F ↓ 57°F

Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

2.8 kn

avg · max 4.0 kn

Gusts to 10.5 kn

From SSW (202°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover58% Sunshine6.4 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1022.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn* · S 14 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.05

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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