Washington College '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.19 (fleet 1.65) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–15 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 0–15 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 0–15 against 0.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-17 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.09 | -1.91 | 0–15 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.2 | 2.73 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 14.5 | 0.47 |
| NYM Fall Open | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.1 | 1.49 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.4 | 1.27 |
| The John Quinn | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.4 | 2.11 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Philly Fleet Race Central Series | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.3 | 1.92 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 5.9 | 2.37 |
| Edward Teach Memorial | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.8 | -0.65 |
| The Coed Showcase A Regatta | Skipper | A | 16 | 16.7 | 1.19 |
| Central Early Fall Qualifier | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.1 | 2.03 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.4 | 1.77 |
| The Grant Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.5 | 1.21 |
| Charleston Spring | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.7 | 0.87 |
| Central Spring Open | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.8 | 1.54 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 12.2 | 1.12 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 16.7 | 0.35 |
| Jesuit Interconference | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.3 | 0.90 |
| Henry Luce Trophy - MAISA | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67 |
| Central Fall Open | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.0 | 1.32 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| SSU Spring Open @ Ocean Pines YC | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.3 | 2.09 |
| MAISA/SAISA | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.3 | 0.92 |
| Jeremy A. Pinkerton Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.9 | 1.44 |
| 2017 SailPack Oriental Intercollegiate | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.5 | 1.60 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 14 | 17.4 | -0.43 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 17.6 | -1.04 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 12 | 14.1 | 0.16 |
| Jesuit Interconference | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.8 | 0.83 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
