The Grant Trophy

HostHobart & William Sm
Date04/14/2018
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	39	27	66
2	Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	34	36	70
3	SUNY Stony Brook	Seawolves	19	54	73
4	University of Virginia	Wahoos	37	55	92
5	Villanova University	Wildcats	45	48	93
6	Columbia University	Lions	59	39	98
7	Christopher Newport University	Captains	81	22	103
8	Virginia Tech	Hokies	70	53	123
9	Drexel University	Dragons	67	72	139
10	Loyola University Maryland	Greyhounds	48	103	151
11	Washington College	Shoremen	88	68	156
12	Syracuse University	Orange	98	80	178
13	Princeton University	Tigers	112	84	196
14	University of Rochester	Yellowjackets	81	127	208
15	Rochester Institute of Technology	Tigers	109	99	208
16	Monmouth University	Hawks	109	123	232
17	U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	129	134	263

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
SUNY Stony Brook	Seawolves	1	2	5	4	1	1	3	2	19	Vidar Minkovsky '18 Micayla Beyer '19
Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	4	3	2	5	5	8	4	3	34	Matthew Roleke '19 Sean Kennedy '21
University of Virginia	Wahoos	2	7	1	8	4	9	5	1	37	Colin Suvak '19 Jillian Ticatch '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	8	1	7	3	9	5	1	5	39	Connor Swikart '18 Cailyn Garber '21
Villanova University	Wildcats	3	4	4	1	2	3	14	14	45	Max Gillette '20 [1-6] Curtis Aaron '21 [7-8] Claire Coppola '21 [1-6] Cameron Hunter '21 [7-8]
Loyola University Maryland	Greyhounds	5	5	16	2	3	2	9	6	48	Ava Haag '21 Ann Bell '20
Columbia University	Lions	10	6	6	9	10	6	2	10	59	Adam Devita '18 Bailey Fryer '18
Drexel University	Dragons	6	15	3	10	8	12	6	7	67	Frederick Piasecki '20 Elizabeth Calio '20
Virginia Tech	Hokies	11	14	9	7	11	7	7	4	70	Reid Shanabrook '22 Christopher Magno '22
University of Rochester	Yellowjackets	13	9	13	6	12	10	10	8	81	Tyler Rochon '18 James Emery '18
Christopher Newport University	Captains	14	8	8	DSQ	7	4	13	9	81	Vir Menon '20 [1-8] Kaitlyn Reilly '18 [1-4, 7-8] Anna Patterson '20 [5-6]
Washington College	Shoremen	7	13	11	13	6	14	11	13	88	Paul Hart '19 [1-8] Allison Cochran '18 [1-4] Haber Carlson '21 [5-8]
Syracuse University	Orange	9	10	12	11	13	13	15	15	98	John Colby '20 [1-8] David Griffin '21 [1-4, 7-8] Dane Brazinski '21 [5-6]
Monmouth University	Hawks	12	11	14	12	16	17	16	11	109	Nina Van De Vaarst '19 Thomas Cahill '18
Rochester Institute of Technology	Tigers	15	16	10	15	14	15	12	12	109	Kaylie Byrnes '22 [1-2] Anthony Peelle '18 [3-8] Douglas Cochran '21 [1-4, 7-8] Ben Wilson '19 [5-6]
Princeton University	Tigers	16	17	15	14	15	11	8	16	112	George Kevrekidis '18 Lucy Norton '22
U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	17	12	17	16	17	16	17	17	129	Nina Tucker '18 Martino An '21

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Christopher Newport University	Captains	1	2	1	1	1	3	3	10	22	Spencer Charney '20 [1-8] Henry Clune '21 [1-2, 5-6] Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	3	3	2	2	7	1	7	2	27	Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18 Cailin Gensler '21
Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	5	6	3	4	5	4	1	8	36	Andrew O'Brien '19 Jesse Stevenson '19
Columbia University	Lions	7	5	4	3	12	2	5	1	39	Liliana Loosbrock '21 Elizabeth Keeney '19
Villanova University	Wildcats	2	1	6	8	3	8	9	11	48	Andrew Levie '19 [1-6] Brian Tiernan '21 [7-8] Brooklyn Curtin '20 [1-6]
Virginia Tech	Hokies	10	8	5	7	6	5	6	6	53	Nathan Gibson '19 Gustav Berner '21
SUNY Stony Brook	Seawolves	8	12	10	11	2	6	2	3	54	Nicholas Manfredi '19 [1-2] Jeremy Mccauley '20 [3-8] Samantha Zito '18 [1-2] Julia Chapman '21 [3-4] Nicholas Manfredi '19 [5-8]
University of Virginia	Wahoos	6	4	8	6	4	11	12	4	55	Alexander Singh '19 Connor Segal '20
Washington College	Shoremen	11	13	7	5	10	9	4	9	68	William Sunkler '20 Bridgette Hindt '18
Drexel University	Dragons	4	7	14	12	13	7	10	5	72	Abigail Proko '20 Alison Reed '21
Syracuse University	Orange	9	11	13	9	8	12	11	7	80	Henry Sanders '18 Christian Palanza '21
Princeton University	Tigers	13	10	9	10	9	13	8	12	84	Zak Dasaro '21 Adam Mcclain '21
Rochester Institute of Technology	Tigers	14	14	11	13	11	10	13	13	99	Ian Taylor '18 Tyler Tomasik '20
Loyola University Maryland	Greyhounds	12	9	12	14	14	14	14	14	103	Brendan O’Connor '21 [1-4] Elizabeth Loughan '21 [5-8] Genevieve Lee '20 [1-2, 5-8] Ximena Mendez '20 [3-4]
Monmouth University	Hawks	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	123	Katherine Foley '19 Ryan Hallak '18
University of Rochester	Yellowjackets	16	16	17	16	17	15	15	15	127	Caroline Ware '20 Rebecca Saubermann '20
U. S. Military Academy	Black Knights	17	17	16	17	16	17	17	17	134	Simone Woolley '21 Ruby Garcia '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
U. S. Military Academy Black Knights	12	12	14	14	16	16	1	1
Christopher Newport University Captains	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Columbia University Lions	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Drexel University Dragons	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Monmouth University Hawks	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Princeton University Tigers	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
University of Rochester Yellowjackets	13	13	15	15	17	17	2	2
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Syracuse University Orange	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Villanova University Wildcats	15	15	17	17	2	2	4	4
University of Virginia Wahoos	14	14	16	16	1	1	3	3
Virginia Tech Hokies	16	16	1	1	3	3	5	5
Washington College Shoremen	17	17	2	2	4	4	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
U. S. Military Academy Black Knights	13	13	15	15	17	17	2	2
Christopher Newport University Captains	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Columbia University Lions	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Drexel University Dragons	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Loyola University Maryland Greyhounds	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Monmouth University Hawks	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Princeton University Tigers	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
University of Rochester Yellowjackets	14	14	16	16	1	1	3	3
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Syracuse University Orange	12	12	14	14	16	16	1	1
Villanova University Wildcats	16	16	1	1	3	3	5	5
University of Virginia Wahoos	15	15	17	17	2	2	4	4
Virginia Tech Hokies	17	17	2	2	4	4	6	6
Washington College Shoremen	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christopher Newport University	Vir Menon '20 [1-8]	Kaitlyn Reilly '18 [1-4, 7-8] Anna Patterson '20 [5-6]
Captains	Spencer Charney '20 [1-8]	Henry Clune '21 [1-2, 5-6] Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Columbia University	Adam Devita '18	Bailey Fryer '18
Lions	Liliana Loosbrock '21	Elizabeth Keeney '19
Drexel University	Frederick Piasecki '20	Elizabeth Calio '20
Dragons	Abigail Proko '20	Alison Reed '21
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	Cailyn Garber '21
Statesmen	Noah Barrengos Barrengos '18	Cailin Gensler '21
Loyola University Maryland	Ava Haag '21	Ann Bell '20
Greyhounds	Brendan O’Connor '21 [1-4] Elizabeth Loughan '21 [5-8]	Genevieve Lee '20 [1-2, 5-8] Ximena Mendez '20 [3-4]
Monmouth University	Nina Van De Vaarst '19	Thomas Cahill '18
Hawks	Katherine Foley '19	Ryan Hallak '18
Princeton University	George Kevrekidis '18	Lucy Norton '22
Tigers	Zak Dasaro '21	Adam Mcclain '21
Rochester Institute of Technology	Kaylie Byrnes '22 [1-2] Anthony Peelle '18 [3-8]	Douglas Cochran '21 [1-4, 7-8] Ben Wilson '19 [5-6]
Tigers	Ian Taylor '18	Tyler Tomasik '20
SUNY Stony Brook	Vidar Minkovsky '18	Micayla Beyer '19
Seawolves	Nicholas Manfredi '19 [1-2] Jeremy Mccauley '20 [3-8]	Samantha Zito '18 [1-2] Julia Chapman '21 [3-4] Nicholas Manfredi '19 [5-8]
Stevens Institute of Technology	Matthew Roleke '19	Sean Kennedy '21
Ducks	Andrew O'Brien '19	Jesse Stevenson '19
Syracuse University	John Colby '20 [1-8]	David Griffin '21 [1-4, 7-8] Dane Brazinski '21 [5-6]
Orange	Henry Sanders '18	Christian Palanza '21
U. S. Military Academy	Nina Tucker '18	Martino An '21
Black Knights	Simone Woolley '21	Ruby Garcia '18
University of Rochester	Tyler Rochon '18	James Emery '18
Yellowjackets	Caroline Ware '20	Rebecca Saubermann '20
University of Virginia	Colin Suvak '19	Jillian Ticatch '21
Wahoos	Alexander Singh '19	Connor Segal '20
Villanova University	Max Gillette '20 [1-6] Curtis Aaron '21 [7-8]	Claire Coppola '21 [1-6] Cameron Hunter '21 [7-8]
Wildcats	Andrew Levie '19 [1-6] Brian Tiernan '21 [7-8]	Brooklyn Curtin '20 [1-6]
Virginia Tech	Reid Shanabrook '22	Christopher Magno '22
Hokies	Nathan Gibson '19	Gustav Berner '21
Washington College	Paul Hart '19 [1-8]	Allison Cochran '18 [1-4] Haber Carlson '21 [5-8]
Shoremen	William Sunkler '20	Bridgette Hindt '18

Conditions — 04/14/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 75% · Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

38°F

↑ 40°F ↓ 36°F

Feels like 30°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.6 kn

avg · max 9.8 kn

Gusts to 20.8 kn

From N (0°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine1.1 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1019.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 12 kn · E 11 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Hobart & William Sm: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.04

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.11 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William Sm by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (30 labelled days at Hobart & William Sm).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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