| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 12–3 |
| 2 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 11–4 |
| 3 |  |
George Washington University | Colonials | 10–5 |
| 4 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Captains | 6–9 |
| 5 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 6–9 |
| 6 |  |
Washington College | Shoremen | 0–15 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,042 team race matches sailed before 2018-03-17, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 45 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.645 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.88 ± 0.28: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 4% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | George Washington University | 5.16 | 8.01 | 10–5 | 3.5 | +2.85 | 15.1 | <1% |
| 1 | Cornell University | 7.96 | 8.30 | 12–3 | 11.3 | +0.34 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 2 | U. S. Naval Academy | 7.84 | 7.89 | 11–4 | 10.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 4 | Christopher Newport University | 6.86 | 5.98 | 6–9 | 7.8 | −0.88 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 5 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 7.80 | 5.78 | 6–9 | 10.7 | −2.02 | 6.8 | >99% |
| 6 | Washington College | 3.68 | 0.68 | 0–15 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Mandell | George Washington University | 1.76 | 4.61 | 10–5 | 3.5 | +2.85 | 15.1 | <1% |
| Connor West | George Washington University | 0.73 | 3.58 | 10–5 | 3.5 | +2.85 | 15.1 | <1% |
| James Morgan | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.44 | 2.48 | 11–4 | 10.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 61% |
| Javier Gonzalez Rotge | Christopher Newport University | 2.06 | 1.18 | 6–9 | 7.8 | −0.88 | 1.1 | 95% |
| Vir Menon | Christopher Newport University | 2.35 | 1.48 | 6–9 | 7.8 | −0.88 | 1.1 | 95% |
| Lewis Cooper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 3.03 | 1.01 | 6–9 | 10.7 | −2.02 | 6.8 | >99% |
| Hunter Cutting | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 1.39 | -0.63 | 6–9 | 10.7 | −2.02 | 6.8 | >99% |
| Joshua Paper | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 2.57 | 0.55 | 6–9 | 10.7 | −2.02 | 6.8 | >99% |
| Paul Hart | Washington College | 1.01 | -1.99 | 0–15 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| William Sunkler | Washington College | 1.09 | -1.91 | 0–15 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
| Andrew Vernon | Washington College | 1.00 | -2.00 | 0–15 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Red | Midshipmen | Colonials | Captains | Seahawks | Shoremen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cornell University Big Red | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 3–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 1–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Red | Midshipmen | Colonials | Captains | Seahawks | Shoremen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cornell University Big Red | 5–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 4–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 2–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 2–3 | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Red | Midshipmen | Colonials | Captains | Seahawks | Shoremen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cornell University Big Red | 2–3 | ✕ | L | L | W | L | W |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 3–2 | W | ✕ | L | W | L | W |
| George Washington University Colonials | 5–0 | W | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Christopher Newport University Captains | 2–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–2 | W | W | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Captains | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Captains | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Colonials | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Big Red | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Colonials | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Colonials | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Big Red | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Captains | 2-3-6 |
| 16 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Big Red | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Captains | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Big Red | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Colonials | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Captains | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Colonials | 1-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Midshipmen | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Captains | 1-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Big Red | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Colonials | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Colonials | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Big Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Colonials | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Seahawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Captains | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Colonials | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Shoremen | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Captains | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Colonials | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Captains | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Colonials | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 2-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Colonials | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Big Red | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Captains | 2-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Cornell University | Big Red | Ethan Andersen '20 Luke Andersen '18 Phillip Schofield '21 |
Miranda Sannino '20 Kate Selley '20 Ana Schonander '20 |
|
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | James Morgan '18 Nicholas Gartner '20 Tyler Fleig '19 |
Bartholomew Winn '21 Madeline Pruzan '21 Alyson Wade '21 |
|
George Washington University | Colonials | Connor West '19 Samuel Mandell '19 Soenke Jordan '21 |
Kia Olsson '18 Clare Cassidy-Gardner '21 Zachary Lehan '20 |
|
Christopher Newport University | Captains | Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 Spencer Charney '20 Vir Menon '20 |
Kaitlyn Reilly '18 Henry Clune '21 Anna Patterson '20 |
|
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | Hunter Cutting '21 Joshua Paper '20 Lewis Cooper '21 |
Laura Dennison '21 Allison Gingerich '21 Sophia Taczak '21 |
|
Washington College | Shoremen | Andrew Vernon '20 Paul Hart '19 William Sunkler '20 |
Allison Cochran '18 Haber Carlson '21 Bridgette Hindt '18 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
