The Coed Showcase A Regatta

HostMIT
Date10/06/2018
TypeShowcase
BoatFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Brown University	Bears	90	92	182
2	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	95	99	194
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	96	104	200
4	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	77	125	202
5	Stanford University	Cardinal	117	86	203
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	113	102	215
7	College of Charleston	Cougars	123	128	251
8	Dartmouth College	Big Green	129	130	259
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	145	126	271
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	137	141	278
11	George Washington University	Colonials	179	114	293
12	Cornell University	Big Red	143	165	308
13	Fordham University	Rams	221	165	386
14	Northeastern University	Huskies	191	214	405
15	University of South Florida	Bulls	183	234	417
16	Christopher Newport University	Captains	227	210	437
17	Hampton University	Pirates	203	244	447
18	Washington College	Shoremen	267	260	527

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	TOT	Sailors
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	2	8	3	3	3	6	1	6	11	3	1	10	6	6	4	4	77	Matthew Kaplan '19 Louisa Lindgren '19
Brown University	Bears	3	1	1	2	8	10	8	4	4	1	14	16	5	2	5	6	90	Patrick Shanahan '19 Julia Reynolds '22
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	10	6	5	5	1	7	2	3	2	17	13	2	2	7	2	11	95	Hector Guzman '20 Maya Weber '20
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	1	5	9	6	4	1	7	11	5	8	18	3	1	4	8	5	96	Trevor Long '19 Julia Cho '20
Tufts University	Jumbos	13	9	4	4	9	3	3	7	9	4	3	1	16	9	9	10	113	Jackson Mccoy '19 Emma Clutterbuck '20
Stanford University	Cardinal	4	2	10	9	15	12	6	2	10	2	2	7	10	11	7	8	117	Jack Parkin '21 Taylor Kirkpatrick '20
College of Charleston	Cougars	11	10	11	7	16	4	12	1	3	5	8	12	4	13	3	3	123	Augie Dale '19 Katherine Lounsbury '20
Dartmouth College	Big Green	8	4	8	15	13	14	9	13	8	9	9	8	8	1	1	1	129	Christopher Williford '19 [1-6, 9-16] Max Clapp '21 [7-8] Rebecca Mcelvain '19 [1-6, 9-16]
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	12	11	6	11	2	2	14	8	6	16	4	6	14	8	10	7	137	Liam Mccarthy '19 Kaisey Mccallion '19
Cornell University	Big Red	5	3	7	8	12	5	5	10	17	7	6	9	12	12	12	13	143	Clark Uhl '19 Adeline Sutton '21
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	6	7	2	1	6	8	10	9	7	12	11	14	7	14	14	17	145	Mack Fox '20 Anna Morin '19
George Washington University	Colonials	17	15	14	14	5	11	13	15	13	6	12	5	9	10	11	9	179	Andrew Sheerin '19 [1-4, 9-16] Derek Poon Tip '19 [5-8] Tanner Chapko '21 [1-4, 9-16] Michael Houllahan '20 [5-8]
University of South Florida	Bulls	16	13	13	13	14	9	4	18	14	11	10	11	13	16	6	2	183	John Whitehead '20 Delaney Brown '20
Northeastern University	Huskies	9	12	12	12	11	13	11	12	16	13	5	13	17	3	16	16	191	Caleb Niles '22 Emerson Campbell '22
Hampton University	Pirates	15	14	15	17	7	17	15	5	15	14	15	4	3	15	17	15	203	Luca Taglialegne '20 [1-16] Mercedes Matlock '20 [1-4] Elisabeth Kuester '19 [5-16]
Fordham University	Rams	7	16	18	10	18	15	16	14	1	15	16	17	15	18	13	12	221	Roberto Stevens '19 [1-12] Brad Seferian '19 [13-16] Cortney Rielly '20 [1-12]
Christopher Newport University	Captains	14	17	17	16	10	16	18	17	12	10	17	18	11	5	15	14	227	Spencer Charney '20 Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21
Washington College	Shoremen	18	18	16	18	17	18	17	16	18	18	7	15	18	17	18	18	267	William Sunkler '20 Haley Wilt '21

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	TOT	Sailors
Stanford University	Cardinal	12	7	8	11	11	3	5	5	5	3	1	2	4	2	6	1	86	Jacob Rosenberg '20 Kathryn Booker '19
Brown University	Bears	5	5	1	10	7	5	8	1	7	5	2	4	3	11	7	11	92	Ragna Agerup '20 Abigayle Konys '19
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	3	1	3	2	14	6	DSQ	3	12	13	5	3	2	4	2	7	99	Charles Miller '19 Lindsey Kloc '19
Tufts University	Jumbos	4	11	7	3	4	1	10	4	8	9	15	11	1	9	1	4	102	Cameron Holley '19 [1-12] Jack Bitney '19 [13-16] Ian Morgan '19 [1-12]
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	1	6	4	5	2	8	RAF	8	1	14	6	10	5	1	5	9	104	Ivan Shestopalov '21 Sameena Shaffeeullah '19
George Washington University	Colonials	15	4	12	1	6	4	13	11	4	16	4	5	8	6	3	2	114	Wade Wagner '19 Andreea Rainey-Pace '20
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	2	8	2	6	9	16	7	10	6	2	13	7	9	5	10	13	125	Christian Filter '20 [1-6] Alden Grimes '21 [7-12] Matt Safford '20 [13-16] Julia Adams '21 [1-6] Alissa Chen '22 [7-16]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	11	9	6	12	13	7	4	2	14	8	9	1	12	3	12	3	126	Gage Schoenherr '21 Brian Nelson '21
College of Charleston	Cougars	9	2	5	9	5	14	9	6	2	12	7	9	11	13	9	6	128	Jack Brown '21 Mary Morano '21
Dartmouth College	Big Green	8	3	9	7	10	17	3	13	10	4	8	8	14	7	4	5	130	Timothy Greenhouse '21 Eloise Burn '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	6	10	10	14	3	15	1	7	3	1	10	16	6	16	8	15	141	Lewis Cooper '21 Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19
Cornell University	Big Red	7	13	11	16	1	12	6	12	11	10	14	6	7	8	17	14	165	Gabby Rizika '20 Diana Otis '19
Fordham University	Rams	10	16	14	13	8	2	2	9	13	6	3	15	18	12	14	10	165	Matt Cappetta '19 [1-3] Eduardo Mintzias '21 [4-16] Jacqueline Tobin '20 [1-3]
Christopher Newport University	Captains	14	12	13	4	17	9	11	16	9	15	17	13	15	10	18	17	210	Vir Menon '20 Mackenzie Conner '20
Northeastern University	Huskies	17	17	16	8	12	18	16	14	15	7	12	14	13	14	13	8	214	Santiago Hirschmann '23 [1-6, 9-16] Carolyn Corbet '21 [7-8] Romain Astie '20 [1-6, 9-16]
University of South Florida	Bulls	16	15	15	18	15	10	12	17	16	11	16	12	16	17	16	12	234	Brett Putnam '22 Carolina Perez Rovira '22
Hampton University	Pirates	13	14	17	17	18	11	14	18	18	18	11	17	10	15	15	18	244	Filip Stevanovic '20 [1-16] Elisabeth Kuester '19 [1-4] Mercedes Matlock '20 [5-16]
Washington College	Shoremen	18	18	18	15	16	13	15	15	17	17	18	18	17	18	11	16	260	Paul Hart '19 [1-10, 13-16] Andrew Vernon '20 [11-12] Andrew Vernon '20 [1-10, 13-16] Haber Carlson '21 [11-12]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A	15A	16A
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Brown University Bears	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13
College of Charleston Cougars	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15
Christopher Newport University Captains	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9
Cornell University Big Red	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Dartmouth College Big Green	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17
Fordham University Rams	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
George Washington University Colonials	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1
Hampton University Pirates	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18
Northeastern University Huskies	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5
University of South Florida Bulls	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2
Stanford University Cardinal	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7
Tufts University Jumbos	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Washington College Shoremen	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B	15B	16B
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Brown University Bears	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13
College of Charleston Cougars	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15
Christopher Newport University Captains	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9
Cornell University Big Red	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Dartmouth College Big Green	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	18	18	17	17
Fordham University Rams	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
George Washington University Colonials	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3	2	2	1	1
Hampton University Pirates	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5	4	4	3	3
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18
Northeastern University Huskies	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	6	5	5
University of South Florida Bulls	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2
Stanford University Cardinal	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11	10	10	9	9	8	8	7	7
Tufts University Jumbos	15	15	16	16	17	17	18	18	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Washington College Shoremen	18	18	17	17	16	16	15	15	14	14	13	13	12	12	11	11

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bowdoin College	Matthew Kaplan '19	Louisa Lindgren '19
Polar Bears	Christian Filter '20 [1-6] Alden Grimes '21 [7-12] Matt Safford '20 [13-16]	Julia Adams '21 [1-6] Alissa Chen '22 [7-16]
Brown University	Patrick Shanahan '19	Julia Reynolds '22
Bears	Ragna Agerup '20	Abigayle Konys '19
Christopher Newport University	Spencer Charney '20	Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21
Captains	Vir Menon '20	Mackenzie Conner '20
College of Charleston	Augie Dale '19	Katherine Lounsbury '20
Cougars	Jack Brown '21	Mary Morano '21
Cornell University	Clark Uhl '19	Adeline Sutton '21
Big Red	Gabby Rizika '20	Diana Otis '19
Dartmouth College	Christopher Williford '19 [1-6, 9-16] Max Clapp '21 [7-8]	Rebecca Mcelvain '19 [1-6, 9-16]
Big Green	Timothy Greenhouse '21	Eloise Burn '21
Fordham University	Roberto Stevens '19 [1-12] Brad Seferian '19 [13-16]	Cortney Rielly '20 [1-12]
Rams	Matt Cappetta '19 [1-3] Eduardo Mintzias '21 [4-16]	Jacqueline Tobin '20 [1-3]
George Washington University	Andrew Sheerin '19 [1-4, 9-16] Derek Poon Tip '19 [5-8]	Tanner Chapko '21 [1-4, 9-16] Michael Houllahan '20 [5-8]
Colonials	Wade Wagner '19	Andreea Rainey-Pace '20
Hampton University	Luca Taglialegne '20 [1-16]	Mercedes Matlock '20 [1-4] Elisabeth Kuester '19 [5-16]
Pirates	Filip Stevanovic '20 [1-16]	Elisabeth Kuester '19 [1-4] Mercedes Matlock '20 [5-16]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Hector Guzman '20	Maya Weber '20
Statesmen	Charles Miller '19	Lindsey Kloc '19
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Trevor Long '19	Julia Cho '20
Engineers	Ivan Shestopalov '21	Sameena Shaffeeullah '19
Northeastern University	Caleb Niles '22	Emerson Campbell '22
Huskies	Santiago Hirschmann '23 [1-6, 9-16] Carolyn Corbet '21 [7-8]	Romain Astie '20 [1-6, 9-16]
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Liam Mccarthy '19	Kaisey Mccallion '19
Seahawks	Lewis Cooper '21	Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19
Stanford University	Jack Parkin '21	Taylor Kirkpatrick '20
Cardinal	Jacob Rosenberg '20	Kathryn Booker '19
Tufts University	Jackson Mccoy '19	Emma Clutterbuck '20
Jumbos	Cameron Holley '19 [1-12] Jack Bitney '19 [13-16]	Ian Morgan '19 [1-12]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Mack Fox '20	Anna Morin '19
Bears	Gage Schoenherr '21	Brian Nelson '21
University of South Florida	John Whitehead '20	Delaney Brown '20
Bulls	Brett Putnam '22	Carolina Perez Rovira '22
Washington College	William Sunkler '20	Haley Wilt '21
Shoremen	Paul Hart '19 [1-10, 13-16] Andrew Vernon '20 [11-12]	Andrew Vernon '20 [1-10, 13-16] Haber Carlson '21 [11-12]

Conditions — 10/06/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 73% · Pressure 1023.3 hPa

Temperature

59°F

↑ 63°F ↓ 51°F

Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.6 kn

avg · max 5.6 kn

Gusts to 11.7 kn

From E (84°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover65% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1023.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 5 kn · NW 9 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at MIT: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment −0.19 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.23

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.06 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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