Northeastern University '22
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 5.63 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.114 rating points from 16 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.04 (fleet 2.84) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–77 (23%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 12–30 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 3 | 4–21 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 7–26 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (100 matches) the record is 23–77 against 26.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-19 | The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.55 | 2.07 | 8–13 | 10.0 | −0.48 | 0.7 | 89% |
| 2022-03-12 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.56 | 2.56 | 3–4 | 3.0 | +0.00 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2022-03-05 | Sharpe Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.50 | 1.88 | 1–13 | 1.7 | −0.63 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2019-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | skipper | 2.53 | 1.01 | 2–10 | 5.0 | −1.53 | 3.1 | 99% |
| 2019-03-30 | Jumbo Team Race | skipper | 2.35 | 3.38 | 1–6 | 0.4 | +1.03 | 0.5 | 36% |
| 2019-03-09 | Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | skipper | 2.47 | 0.95 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −1.52 | 1.4 | 98% |
| 2018-03-31 | Camel Team Race | skipper | 2.18 | 1.66 | 2–11 | 3.0 | −0.52 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2018-03-10 | MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | skipper | 1.70 | 3.38 | 5–15 | 1.4 | +1.68 | 5.1 | 1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Sharpe Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| New England Dinghy Champs for the CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.5 | 2.46 |
| Navy Spring Regatta | Crew | A | 4 | 4.5 | — |
| The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 38% | — |
| Boston University Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.6 | 3.04 |
| 84th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.3 | 2.35 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 14.8 | 1.54 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.2 | 2.79 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.6 | 3.50 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.4 | 3.06 |
| Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 11 | 2.7 | — |
| 30th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A, B | 14 | 10.9 | 3.05 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.0 | 3.18 |
| NEISA Showcase Qualifier | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.6 | 2.71 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.3 | 2.52 |
| Harman Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 4.0 | — |
| The Dark of Night Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.0 | 2.87 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.3 | 1.35 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.0 | 2.19 |
| Arctic Circle Team Racing Invitational | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 7 | 4.9 | 2.96 |
| NEISA Coed Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.0 | 3.19 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Bobby Berliner Midweek Firefly Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.0 | 0.73 |
| 2019 Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 4 | 10.2 | 2.37 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted Coed Showcase | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.2 | 2.05 |
| Nicholas Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.7 | 2.42 |
| Harman Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 4.5 | — |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.7 | 2.53 |
| The Coed Showcase A Regatta | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.9 | 3.13 |
| The 78th Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.6 | 2.61 |
| 2018-NEISA Match Race Champs-Larry White Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 6.0 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Priddy Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.1 | 2.19 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 11.6 | 2.08 |
| MIT Team Race Invitational Regatta | Skipper | TR | 20 | 25% | — |
| Camel Team Race | Skipper | TR | 13 | 15% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.6 | 2.50 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | C | 7 | 10.7 | 2.13 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.1 | 2.29 |
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.4 | 2.12 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Caleb Niles |  Unregistered-NESSA |
'17 |
| ISSA | Caleb Niles |  Deering HS |
'17 |
| ISSA | Caleb Niles |  Portland High School |
'17 |
| ISSA | Caleb Niles |  Interscholastic Sailing Association |
'17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
