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Harman Trophy

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Boston University Boston University Terriers 8 8
2 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 12 12
3 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 14 14
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 14 14
5 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 16 16
6 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 23 23
7 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 25 25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT
Boston University Boston University Terriers 1 2 3 2 8
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 3 5 1 12
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 1 2 6 14
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 6 4 1 3 14
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 6 4 4 16
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 7 5 6 5 23
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 4 7 7 7 25

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  7 boats · 4 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Josh Dochoda '20Boston University4/42.243.23+0.9999th → 99th1.318%2.0 / 3.2
2Gordon Gurnell '22Connecticut College4/41.822.25+0.4397th → 99th0.333%3.0 / 3.7
3Ansgar Jordan '22Tufts University4/42.031.83−0.2099th → 97th0.157%3.5 / 3.4
3Matt Safford '20Bowdoin College4/42.261.67−0.5899th → 94th0.666%3.5 / 3.2
5Santiago Hirschmann '23Northeastern University4/41.381.67+0.2987th → 94th0.245%4.0 / 4.2
6Tucker Braun '22Massachusetts Maritime Academy4/40.350.89+0.5441st → 70th0.461%5.8 / 5.4
7Thomas Dugan '20Maine Maritime Academy4/40.88-0.65−1.5269th → 1st2.291%6.2 / 4.8

Conditions — 09/07/2019 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Moderate rain
Humidity 94%  ·  Pressure 1004.0 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 57°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
13.6 kn
avg  ·  max 16.1 kn
Gusts to 33.2 kn
From N (1°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine0.6 hrs Humidity94% Pressure1004.0 hPa Rain0.76 in

What this breeze does at Maine Maritime — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Maine Maritime in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Maine Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled fleet-race days at Maine Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →