The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta

HostMIT
Date03/19/2022
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	17–4
2	Boston College	Eagles	16–5
3	Brown University	Bears	13–8
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	12–9
5	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	10–11
6	Northeastern University	Huskies	8–13
7	Roger Williams University	Hawks	7–14
8	Boston University	Terriers	1–20

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 16,901 team race matches sailed before 2022-03-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 64 of 84 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.521 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.10 ± 0.23: a typical event, more orderly than 54% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2	9.12 school −0.07, home +0.32	Dana Haig / Shayne Bersin 3.04 Brooke Schmelz / Grace Mao 3.01 Kaila Pfrang / Maile Jim 2.78	76%	17–4 (81%)	+1.0
2	Boston College Eagles	1	9.46 school +0.33	Robert Hunter / Emma Batcher 3.40 Michaela O'Brien / Laura Ferraris 3.01 Libby Redmond / Lourdes Gallo 2.68	81%	16–5 (76%)	−1.1
3	Brown University Bears	3	8.19 school +0.18	William George / Lily Shore 2.35 Jed Bell / Menasha Leport 3.04 Thomas Styron / Olivia Miller 2.52	56%	13–8 (62%)	+1.2
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	7	7.47 school −0.23	Nathan Olmsted / Charles Mason 3.06 Nicholas Reeser / Mia Quinlan 2.66 Jack Derry / Daniel Neville 7–5 Peter Mcgonagle / Daniel Neville 5–4	38%	12–9 (57%)	+3.9
5	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6	7.67 school +0.23	Thomas Hall / Luisa Louchheim 2.74 Sam Bonauto / John Seider 3.12 Benjamin Stevens / Jondall Norris	41%	10–11 (48%)	+1.3
6	Northeastern University Huskies	4	7.93 school +0.15	Adrian Van Der Wal / Emma Cole 2.61 Caleb Niles / Reid Wishner 2.55 Ted Bjerregaard / Abigail Thress 2.57	48%	8–13 (38%)	−2.1
7	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	7.69 school +0.36	William Bailey / Ian Coen 2.34 George Higham / Callum Robbins 2.81 3–12 Luke Hosek / Izaiah Farr 2.12 6–9 Luke Hosek / Katharine Benagh 2.15 1–5 George Higham / Katharine Benagh 2.76 4–2	44%	7–14 (33%)	−2.2
8	Boston University Terriers	8	6.37	Micky Munns / Chet Swanson 2.71 Nicholas Hardy / Matthew Hamelsky Nathan Selian / Grace Murphy 2.07	15%	1–20 (5%)	−2.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	7.47	8.41	12–9	8.1	+0.94	2.7	4%
1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9.12	9.46	17–4	16.0	+0.33	0.2	40%
5	Bowdoin College	7.67	7.97	10–11	8.7	+0.30	0.3	34%
3	Brown University	8.19	8.49	13–8	11.8	+0.30	0.3	36%
2	Boston College	9.46	9.13	16–5	17.1	−0.33	0.3	82%
6	Northeastern University	7.93	7.45	8–13	10.0	−0.48	0.7	89%
7	Roger Williams University	7.69	7.16	7–14	9.2	−0.53	0.8	91%
8	Boston University	6.37	5.06	1–20	3.2	−1.31	1.7	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Peter Mcgonagle	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	1.43	2.79	5–4	2.3	+1.37	2.7	5%
Jack Derry	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	1.90	2.44	7–5	5.7	+0.55	0.5	30%
William George	Brown University	2.35	2.65	13–8	11.8	+0.30	0.3	36%
Jed Bell	Brown University	3.04	3.34	13–8	11.8	+0.30	0.3	36%
Thomas Styron	Brown University	2.52	2.81	13–8	11.8	+0.30	0.3	36%
Adrian Van Der Wal	Northeastern University	2.61	2.13	8–13	10.0	−0.48	0.7	89%
George Higham	Roger Williams University	2.81	2.28	7–14	9.2	−0.53	0.8	91%
Nicholas Hardy	Boston University	1.16	-0.15	1–20	3.2	−1.31	1.7	97%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	80%
1	2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	73%
1	3	Bowdoin College	Northeastern University	37%	upset
1	4	Boston College	Roger Williams University	86%
1	9	Brown University	Boston University	88%
1	10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	51%
1	11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	81%
1	12	Boston College	Northeastern University	82%
1	17	Brown University	Bowdoin College	64%
1	18	Roger Williams University	Boston University	79%
1	19	Northeastern University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	57%
1	20	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	42%	upset
1	25	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	51%
1	26	Brown University	Northeastern University	56%
1	27	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	94%
1	28	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	85%
1	33	Northeastern University	Roger Williams University	55%
1	34	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	81%
1	35	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	24%	upset
1	36	Boston College	Boston University	96%
1	41	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Northeastern University	77%
1	42	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	62%
1	43	Bowdoin College	Boston University	78%
1	44	Boston College	Brown University	78%
1	49	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	87%
1	50	Boston University	Northeastern University	18%	upset
1	51	Brown University	Roger Williams University	62%
1	52	Boston College	Bowdoin College	85%
2	5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	80%
2	6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	73%
2	7	Bowdoin College	Northeastern University	39%	upset
2	8	Boston College	Roger Williams University	86%
2	13	Brown University	Boston University	87%
2	14	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	49%	upset
2	15	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	81%
2	16	Northeastern University	Boston College	18%	upset
2	21	Brown University	Bowdoin College	63%
2	22	Roger Williams University	Boston University	79%
2	23	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Northeastern University	44%	upset
2	24	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	58%
2	29	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	51%
2	30	Brown University	Northeastern University	56%
2	31	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	94%
2	32	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	85%
2	37	Roger Williams University	Northeastern University	45%	upset
2	38	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	81%
2	39	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	25%	upset
2	40	Boston College	Boston University	96%
2	45	Northeastern University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	23%	upset
2	46	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	39%	upset
2	47	Bowdoin College	Boston University	78%
2	48	Brown University	Boston College	22%	upset
2	53	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	13%	upset
2	54	Northeastern University	Boston University	81%
2	55	Brown University	Roger Williams University	62%
2	56	Boston College	Bowdoin College	85%
3	57	Brown University	Roger Williams University	62%
3	58	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	51%
3	59	Boston College	Northeastern University	82%
3	60	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston University	93%
3	61	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	72%
3	62	Boston College	Roger Williams University	85%
3	63	Bowdoin College	Boston University	78%
3	64	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Northeastern University	77%
3	65	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	84%
3	66	Brown University	Boston University	85%
3	67	Northeastern University	Roger Williams University	55%
3	68	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	20%	upset
3	69	Boston College	Boston University	95%
3	70	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Northeastern University	47%	upset
3	71	Bowdoin College	Brown University	39%	upset
3	72	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Roger Williams University	80%
3	73	Northeastern University	Boston University	81%
3	74	Bowdoin College	Boston College	16%	upset
3	75	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Roger Williams University	41%	upset
3	76	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	71%
3	77	Northeastern University	Bowdoin College	54%
3	78	Roger Williams University	Boston University	76%
3	79	Boston College	Brown University	77%
3	80	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	86%
3	81	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	51%
3	82	Brown University	Northeastern University	57%
3	83	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	79%
3	84	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	42%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Engineers	Eagles	Bears	Bears	Bears	Huskies	Hawks	Terriers
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	4–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–4	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Northeastern University Huskies	2–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Engineers	Eagles	Bears	Bears	Bears	Huskies	Hawks	Terriers
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–3	✕	L	W	L	W	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–2	W	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	5–2	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3–4	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W
Northeastern University Huskies	3–4	W	W	L	L	L	✕	L	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Engineers	Eagles	Bears	Bears	Bears	Huskies	Hawks	Terriers
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	5–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	4–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	5–2	W	W	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Northeastern University Huskies	3–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
2	Engineers	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
3	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Huskies	2-4-5
4	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
9	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
10	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
11	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
12	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
17	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
18	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
19	Huskies	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
20	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
25	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
26	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
27	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
28	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
33	Huskies	1-3-5	def.	Hawks	2-4-6
34	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
35	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
36	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
41	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
42	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
43	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
44	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
49	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
50	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
51	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
52	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
5	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Terriers	3-4-5
6	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
7	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
8	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
13	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Terriers	1-4-6
14	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
15	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
16	Huskies	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
21	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
22	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Terriers	1-4-6
23	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
24	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
29	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
30	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
31	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
32	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
37	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
38	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
39	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
40	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
45	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
46	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
47	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
48	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
53	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Engineers	2-5-6
54	Huskies	1-3-6	def.	Terriers	2-4-5
55	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
56	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
57	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
58	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
59	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
60	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
61	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
62	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
63	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Terriers	2-4-6
64	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
65	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
66	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
67	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
68	Polar Bears	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
69	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
70	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
71	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
72	Engineers	1-3-4	def.	Hawks	2-5-6
73	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
74	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
75	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
76	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
77	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
78	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
79	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
80	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
81	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
82	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
83	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Terriers	3-5-6
84	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Schmelz '25 Dana Haig '22 Kaila Pfrang '21	Grace Mao '23 Shayne Bersin '25 Maile Jim '22
Boston College	Eagles	Libby Redmond '24 Michaela O'Brien '24 Robert Hunter '22	Lourdes Gallo '24 Laura Ferraris '22 Emma Batcher '22
Brown University	Bears	Jed Bell '23 Thomas Styron '24 William George '23	Menasha Leport '25 Olivia Miller '25 Lily Shore '24
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Jack Derry '25 Nathan Olmsted '23 Nicholas Reeser '25 Peter Mcgonagle '25	Daniel Neville '25 Charles Mason '23 Mia Quinlan '24
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Benjamin Stevens '25 Sam Bonauto '25 Thomas Hall '25	Jondall Norris '25 John Seider '22 Luisa Louchheim '25
Northeastern University	Huskies	Adrian Van Der Wal '22 Caleb Niles '22 Ted Bjerregaard '23	Emma Cole '25 Reid Wishner '24 Abigail Thress '24
Roger Williams University	Hawks	George Higham '23 Luke Hosek '24 William Bailey '24	Katharine Benagh '24 Callum Robbins '22 Izaiah Farr '23 Ian Coen '24
Boston University	Terriers	Micky Munns '23 Nathan Selian '25 Nicholas Hardy '24	Chet Swanson '23 Grace Murphy '25 Matthew Hamelsky '23

Conditions — 03/19/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 95% · Pressure 1012.2 hPa

Temperature

51°F

↑ 57°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.2 kn

avg · max 8.4 kn

Gusts to 21.2 kn

From E (94°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.6 hrs Humidity95% Pressure1012.2 hPa Rain0.33 in

What this breeze does at MIT — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at MIT in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at MIT by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (112 labelled fleet-race days at MIT).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu