Boston University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.33 (fleet 1.85) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–20 (5%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 1–20 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (21 matches) the record is 1–20 against 3.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-03-19 | The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 1.16 | -0.15 | 1–20 | 3.2 | −1.31 | 1.7 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 5% | — |
| Boston University Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.0 | 2.54 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.5 | -0.39 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.0 | 0.10 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.2 | 0.77 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
