Roger Williams University '24
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.21 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 29 | Fall 2023 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.13 (fleet 2.96) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 120–95 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 6 | 34–18 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 4 | 15–23 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 2 | 12–4 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 6 | 50–40 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 3 | 9–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 21 graded regattas (215 matches) the record is 120–95 against 121.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.5). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 25 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-06 | Mystic Lake Team Race | skipper | 2.47 | 2.80 | 14–4 | 13.1 | +0.33 | 0.2 | 41% |
| 2024-03-23 | BU Team Race | skipper | 2.49 | 1.51 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −0.98 | 0.5 | 92% |
| 2024-03-17 | Sunshine City Team Race (Eckerd Top 4) | skipper | 2.46 | 3.90 | 4–2 | 2.2 | +1.43 | 1.8 | 12% |
| 2024-03-16 | Sunshine City Team Race (Eckerd) | skipper | 2.45 | 2.39 | 6–3 | 6.0 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 2024-03-10 | Salve Regina Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.43 | 2.12 | 5–5 | 5.5 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2024-03-02 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 2.42 | 5.42 | 4–0 | 3.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 59% |
| 2023-04-08 | Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.36 | 3.11 | 5–3 | 3.8 | +0.75 | 0.6 | 29% |
| 2023-03-18 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.37 | 2.15 | 3–9 | 3.4 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2023-03-11 | Wood Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.54 | 0.93 | 4–10 | 7.8 | −1.61 | 4.4 | >99% |
| 2023-03-04 | McMerrick Cup | skipper | 2.56 | 3.97 | 3–1 | 2.1 | +1.41 | 0.9 | 31% |
| 2022-10-29 | Dave Perry Trophy | skipper | 2.49 | 3.17 | 9–3 | 7.6 | +0.68 | 0.7 | 28% |
| 2022-10-23 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.46 | 3.15 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +0.70 | 0.2 | 51% |
| 2022-04-09 | Mystic Lake TR | skipper | 2.39 | 2.17 | 10–4 | 10.5 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2022-04-02 | Yale TR @ Connecticut College | skipper | 2.21 | 3.75 | 5–2 | 2.7 | +1.54 | 2.5 | 7% |
| 2022-03-26 | Boston University Team Race | skipper | 2.25 | 1.38 | 8–12 | 11.6 | −0.87 | 2.2 | 98% |
| 2022-03-19 | The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.34 | 1.81 | 7–14 | 9.2 | −0.53 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2022-03-12 | MIT Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.38 | 1.08 | 2–5 | 3.3 | −1.30 | 1.2 | 97% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | skipper | 2.17 | 2.82 | 18–3 | 16.1 | +0.64 | 0.8 | 24% |
| 2021-05-22 | Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.11 | -0.89 | 0–5 | 2.0 | ≤−3.00 | 4.7 | >99% |
| 2021-03-27 | Robin Wallace Team Race | skipper | 2.12 | 4.05 | 4–1 | 2.4 | +1.94 | 2.1 | 12% |
| 2021-03-20 | Southern New England Team Race | skipper | 1.81 | 2.32 | 5–4 | 4.2 | +0.51 | 0.3 | 40% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| Sunshine City Team Race (Eckerd Top 4) | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Sunshine City Team Race (Eckerd) | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| Salve Regina Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 76% | — |
| George E. Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.5 | 3.02 |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Esther Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.3 | 2.78 |
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.3 | 3.33 |
| Montotype Trophy - NEISA Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 11 | 25.1 | 1.90 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.3 | 3.14 |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.0 | 2.32 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| McMerrick Cup | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| CGA J70 Invite #2 Keelboat | Crew | A | 12 | 5.0 | — |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Z420 Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 3.13 |
| Tech Dinghy Invitational Regatta Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 9 | 1.8 | 4.25 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.3 | 2.60 |
| Greater Boston Solo Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.2 | 2.07 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.8 | 3.27 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 4 | 75% | — |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 75% | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale TR @ Connecticut College | Skipper | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| Sunday Salve Invite | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.6 | 4.00 |
| Mystic Lake TR | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| MIT Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 33% | — |
| Boston University Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Sister Ester | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.5 | 3.06 |
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.0 | 2.25 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invite | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.7 | 2.93 |
| Boston University Invite | Skipper | B | 15 | 9.9 | -0.44 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| URI Spring Invite | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.8 | 1.32 |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| Salve Regina Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.0 | 0.75 |
| RWU Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 12.9 | 2.64 |
| Robin Wallace Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| Robin Wallace Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.2 | 2.93 |
| Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 5 | 0% | — |
| Ewenson Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.8 | -1.88 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | William Bailey |  St. John Paul II School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
