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Yale Z420 Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 22 22
2 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 24 24
3 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 26 26
4 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 5 28 28
5 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 31 31
6 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 7 35 35
7 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 37 37
8 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 44 44
9 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 59 59
10 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 6 62 62
11 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 4 64 64
12 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 68 68
13 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 69 69
14 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 3 74 74
15 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 77 77
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 5 1 3 1 9 3 22 Jack Roman '26
Ian Coen '24
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 1 5 10 5 2 1 24 Ian Hopkins Guerra '26
Keira Fowler '26
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 2 2 6 9 1 6 26 Ximena Escobar '25
Julia Miller '26
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 5 4 6 1 6 7 4 28 Harris Padegs '23
Eloise (Ellie) Pieper '23
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 9 3 4 2 4 9 31 William Bailey '24
Maren Matthews '26
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 7 8 9 5 3 5 5 35 Liam Gronda '25
Aurora Kreyche '25
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 3 4 8 4 8 10 37 William Bedford '23
Margaret Benson '23
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 10 13 2 11 6 2 44 Katherine Mcnamara '26
Francesca Edmands '25
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 6 14 7 14 11 7 59 Beck Lorsch '25
Sydney Zoehrer '24
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 6 15 7 13 13 3 11 62 Izzy Wu-Karr '26
Abigail Lenox '23
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 4 7 15 14 10 10 8 64 Fritz Baldauf '24
Alejandro Amezcua '25
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 12 8 9 12 12 15 68 Jean-Michel Bus '22
Alasdair Mcdermott '26
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 13 11 11 8 13 13 69 Duncan Craine '26
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 3 11 12 15 7 15 14 74 Sam Rifkind-Brown '25
Em Tchorz '23
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 14 10 12 15 14 12 77 Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26
Sierra Bornheim '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (18 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 1111111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2222222
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 1333333
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 2444444
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 3555555
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 4666666
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 5777777
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 6888888
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 7999999
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 1101010101010
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 2111111111111
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 3121212121212
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 1131313131313
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 2141414141414
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 3151515151515

Conditions — 09/17/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1024.8 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.4 kn
avg  ·  max 5.8 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From SE (137°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover66% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1024.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Yale: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.19)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.09 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.19 means a rating gap counts about 17% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yale by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled days at Yale).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →