| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 6–2 |
| 2 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 2–6 |
| 5 |  |
Connecticut College | Camels | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 17,727 team race matches sailed before 2022-04-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 13 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.704 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.60 ± 0.63: a typical event, more orderly than 8% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University Hawks | 3 | 7.07 school +0.31 | George Higham / Katharine Benagh 2.58 Luke Hosek / Izaiah Farr 1.96 William Bailey / Ian Coen 2.21 | 38% | 5–2 (71%) | +2.3 |
| 2 | Yale University Bulldogs | 1 | 8.21 school +0.29, home +0.33 | Sam Tobin / Teddy Horangic 2.34 Christophe Chaumont / Allison Rice 2.38 3–2 Nicholas Davies / Jessi Avila-Shah 2.86 3–1 Nicholas Davies / Catherine Cheung 2.84 1–2 Christophe Chaumont / Catherine Cheung 2.40 1–1 | 74% | 4–3 (57%) | −1.2 |
| 3 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2 | 7.75 school −0.13 | Emily Bornarth / Sydney Motherway 2.64 Emma Snead / Laura Slovensky 2.33 Nicholas Reeser / Jonathan Glander 2.89 | 61% | 3–3 (50%) | −0.6 |
| 4 | Tufts University Jumbos | 4 | 6.52 school +0.13 | Bryan Trammell / Leo Terry 2.26 Connor Rosow / Magdelaina Putnam 2.01 Jack Flores / Nicolas Echarte | 25% | 1–5 (17%) | −0.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Williams University | 7.07 | 8.61 | 5–2 | 2.7 | +1.54 | 2.5 | 7% |
| 3 | U. S. Coast Guard Academy | 7.75 | 7.27 | 3–3 | 3.6 | −0.48 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 4 | Tufts University | 6.52 | 5.99 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −0.52 | 0.2 | 83% |
| 2 | Yale University | 8.21 | 7.40 | 4–3 | 5.2 | −0.81 | 0.7 | 93% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Higham | Roger Williams University | 2.58 | 4.12 | 5–2 | 2.7 | +1.54 | 2.5 | 7% |
| Bryan Trammell | Tufts University | 2.26 | 1.73 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −0.52 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Connor Rosow | Tufts University | 2.01 | 1.49 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −0.52 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Nicholas Davies | Yale University | 2.86 | 2.05 | 4–3 | 5.2 | −0.81 | 0.7 | 93% |
| Sam Tobin | Yale University | 2.34 | 1.54 | 4–3 | 5.2 | −0.81 | 0.7 | 93% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bulldogs | Bears | Jumbos | Camels | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 2–2 | L | ✕ | W | L | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 2–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 1–3 | L | W | L | ✕ | L |
| Connecticut College Camels | 1–3 | L | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bulldogs | Bears | Jumbos | Camels | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 2–2 | ✕ | L | L | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 4–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears | 3–1 | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Connecticut College Camels | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Hawks | Bulldogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 1–0 | ✕ | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 0–1 | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Jumbos | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Hawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 1-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Hawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Camels | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Hawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Camels | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Camels | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-5-6 RAF |
| 14 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Camels | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Hawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Camels | 2-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Camels | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | George Higham '23 Luke Hosek '24 William Bailey '24 |
Katharine Benagh '24 Izaiah Farr '23 Ian Coen '24 |
|
Yale University | Bulldogs | Christophe Chaumont '23 Nicholas Davies '24 Sam Tobin '23 |
Catherine Cheung '24 Allison Rice '23 Jessi Avila-Shah '25 Teddy Horangic '25 |
|
U. S. Coast Guard Academy | Bears | Emily Bornarth '24 Emma Snead '23 Nicholas Reeser '25 |
Sydney Motherway '24 Laura Slovensky '25 Jonathan Glander '24 |
|
Tufts University | Jumbos | Bryan Trammell '23 Connor Rosow '24 Jack Flores '25 |
Leo Terry '25 Magdelaina Putnam '25 Nicolas Echarte '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
