| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs 1 | 10–2 |
| 2 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 1 | 9–3 |
| 3 | |
Yale University | Bulldogs 2 | 7–5 |
| 4 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 2–10 |
| 5 | |
Roger Williams University | Hawks 2 | 2–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 18,899 team race matches sailed before 2022-10-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 30 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.475 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.11 ± 0.34: a typical event, more orderly than 31% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yale University Bulldogs 1 | 2 | 8.70 school +0.30, home +0.38 | Mateo Farina / Sydney Zoehrer 3.00 Nathan Sih / Catherine Cheung 2.79 Alex Adams / Julia Miller 8–1 Alex Adams / Mary Madaus 2–1 | 72% | 10–2 (83%) | +1.4 |
| 2 | Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 3 | 8.36 school +0.27 | George Higham / Grace Woodcock 2.59 Mathieu Dale / Michaela Odonnell 2.99 William Bailey / Ruby Hope 2.49 | 64% | 9–3 (75%) | +1.3 |
| 3 | Yale University Bulldogs 2 | 1 | 8.81 school +0.30, home +0.38 | Sam Tobin / Meredith Ryan 2.75 Christophe Chaumont / Allison Rice 2.44 Megan Grimes / Jessi Avila-Shah 2.92 | 74% | 7–5 (58%) | −1.9 |
| 4 | Brown University Bears | 5 | 5.31 school +0.25 | Grant Adam / Spencer Dellenbaugh 2.24 Daniel Van Heeckeren / Lucian Sharpe Keller Morrison / William Salerno 1.50 | 6% | 2–10 (17%) | +1.2 |
| 5 | Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 4 | 7.05 school +0.27 | Jack Roman / Hank Bailey 2.51 Chase Reynolds / Katharine Benagh 2.26 Luke Hosek / Ethan Snyder 1.98 | 34% | 2–10 (17%) | −2.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Brown University Bears | 5.31 | 6.45 | 2–10 | 0.8 | +1.14 | 1.1 | 18% |
| 1 | Yale University Bulldogs 1 | 8.70 | 9.50 | 10–2 | 8.6 | +0.81 | 0.8 | 26% |
| 2 | Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 8.36 | 9.04 | 9–3 | 7.6 | +0.68 | 0.7 | 28% |
| 3 | Yale University Bulldogs 2 | 8.81 | 7.91 | 7–5 | 8.9 | −0.90 | 1.2 | 95% |
| 5 | Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 7.05 | 5.49 | 2–10 | 4.1 | −1.56 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Adams | Yale University | 2.12 | 2.93 | 10–2 | 8.6 | +0.81 | 0.8 | 26% |
| Mateo Farina | Yale University | 3.00 | 3.81 | 10–2 | 8.6 | +0.81 | 0.8 | 26% |
| George Higham | Roger Williams University | 2.59 | 3.27 | 9–3 | 7.6 | +0.68 | 0.7 | 28% |
| Sam Tobin | Yale University | 2.75 | 1.85 | 7–5 | 8.9 | −0.90 | 1.2 | 95% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 2 | Bears | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale University Bulldogs 1 | 5–3 | ✕ | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 4–4 | W | ✕ | W | L | ✕ |
| Yale University Bulldogs 2 | 5–3 | ✕ | L | ✕ | W | L |
| Brown University Bears | 1–3 | L | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 4–4 | W | ✕ | W | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 2 | Bears | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale University Bulldogs 1 | 6–2 | ✕ | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 3–5 | L | ✕ | L | L | ✕ |
| Yale University Bulldogs 2 | 6–2 | ✕ | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 1–3 | L | W | L | ✕ | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 3–5 | L | ✕ | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 1 | 2 | Bears | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale University Bulldogs 1 | 6–2 | ✕ | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 1 | 4–4 | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| Yale University Bulldogs 2 | 6–2 | ✕ | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 0–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Roger Williams University Hawks 2 | 4–4 | L | ✕ | L | W | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Hawks 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Hawks 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hawks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Hawks 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Hawks 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hawks 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Yale University | Bulldogs 1 | Alex Adams '26 Mateo Farina '25 Nathan Sih '25 |
Julia Miller '26 Mary Madaus '25 Sydney Zoehrer '24 Catherine Cheung '24 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks 1 | George Higham '23 Mathieu Dale '25 William Bailey '24 |
Grace Woodcock '23 Michaela Odonnell '24 Ruby Hope '25 |
|
Yale University | Bulldogs 2 | Christophe Chaumont '23 Megan Grimes '24 Sam Tobin '23 |
Allison Rice '23 Jessi Avila-Shah '25 Meredith Ryan '23 |
|
Brown University | Bears | Daniel Van Heeckeren '26 Grant Adam '23 Keller Morrison '25 |
Lucian Sharpe '24 Spencer Dellenbaugh '23 William Salerno '25 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks 2 | Chase Reynolds '23 Jack Roman '26 Luke Hosek '24 |
Katharine Benagh '24 Hank Bailey '24 Ethan Snyder '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
