Yale University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.88 (fleet 3.94) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–11 (63%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 10–2 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 9–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 19–11 against 16.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-29 | Dave Perry Trophy | skipper | 3.00 | 3.81 | 10–2 | 8.6 | +0.81 | 0.8 | 26% |
| 2022-03-12 | Rudkin Team Race | skipper | 2.83 | 3.76 | 6–4 | 4.4 | +0.93 | 1.1 | 19% |
| 2022-03-05 | Hap Moore | skipper | 2.56 | 2.24 | 3–5 | 3.6 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale FJ Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.3 | 3.56 |
| 2023 Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 12 | 2.4 | — |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.6 | 4.29 |
| 85th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.6 | 4.39 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale FJ Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 4.00 |
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.6 | 4.64 |
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | TR | 12 | 83% | — |
| Bears Invite | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.7 | 4.47 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Rudkin Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Hap Moore | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Invitational | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.6 | 1.91 |
| Sister Ester | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.8 | 3.97 |
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.2 | 4.04 |
| The Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.3 | 4.61 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.6 | 3.30 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.2 | 4.09 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Crew | A | 3 | 6.7 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
