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Yale FJ Regatta

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 24 24
2 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 26 26
3 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 4 31 31
4 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 31 31
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 44 44
6 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 45 45
7 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 49 49
8 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 3 51 51
9 Brown University Brown University Bears 4 53 53
10 Brown University Brown University Bears 5 55 55
11 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 62 62
12 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 65 65
13 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 66 66
14 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 70 70
15 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 77 77
16 Brown University Brown University Bears 3 78 78
17 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 98 98
18 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 102 102
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 2 1 4 1 6 4 8 24 George Higham '23
Grace Woodcock '23
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 1 3 1 3 5 10 4 26 Christophe Chaumont '23
Allison Rice '23
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 4 2 2 2 4 12 9 31 Mateo Farina '25
Jessi Avila-Shah '25
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 6 5 6 7 1 6 31 Oliver Stokke '26
Claire Buckley '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 11 8 8 3 9 5 44 Thomas Styron '24
Hannah Sellers '26
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 9 9 7 9 8 3 45 Charlotte Costikyan '24
Lily Shore '24
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 2 5 7 13 2 6 16 49 Nathan Sih '25
Catherine Cheung '24
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 3 4 DNS 5 1 7 15 51 Sam Tobin '23
Teddy Horangic '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 4 14 10 4 13 11 1 53 Mason Stang '25
Catherine Morrissette '24
Brown University Brown University Bears 5 16 6 12 14 5 2 55 Emily Mueller '25
Brianna Ross '26
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 8 12 14 8 13 7 62 Bradley Whiteway '26
Sarah Krajewski '26
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 1 13 11 11 17 2 11 65 Andrew Powers '24
Ashley Breyer '24
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 3 7 3 15 11 18 12 66 Ryan Mckinney '24
Clifton Carragher '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1 12 15 16 10 3 14 70 Peter Mcgonagle '25
Daniel Neville '25
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 3 10 14 10 16 14 13 77 Luke Hosek '24
Ethan Snyder '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 3 15 13 9 15 16 10 78 Connor Macken '24
Janelle Li '25
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 2 18 16 18 12 17 17 98 Charles Bresnahan '24
Renee Smith '24
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2 17 17 17 18 15 18 102 Luke Slosar '26
Aiana Cayao '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 1101010101010
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2111111111111
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 3121212121212
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 4131313131313
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 5141414141414
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 1777777
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 2888888
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3999999
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 1111111
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 2222222
Connecticut CollegeConnecticut College Camels 3333333
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 1444444
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 2555555
Roger Williams UniversityRoger Williams University Hawks 3666666
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 1151515151515
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 2161616161616
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 3171717171717
Yale UniversityYale University Bulldogs 4181818181818

Conditions — 09/17/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1024.8 hPa

Temperature

66°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.4 kn
avg  ·  max 5.8 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From SE (137°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover66% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1024.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Yale: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.19)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.12 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.02 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.19 means a rating gap counts about 17% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Yale by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled days at Yale).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →