Brown University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.73 (fleet 3.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.05 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 60–37 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 15–11 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 11–4 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 30–17 | — |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | 4–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (97 matches) the record is 60–37 against 64.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-08 | Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.77 | 1.56 | 4–4 | 5.8 | −1.21 | 1.7 | 98% |
| 2023-03-25 | Jan Friis Team Race | skipper | 2.69 | 1.07 | 1–3 | 2.2 | −1.63 | 1.3 | 98% |
| 2023-03-18 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.70 | 2.22 | 10–4 | 10.9 | −0.48 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 2022-10-22 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 2.63 | 3.18 | 11–4 | 9.5 | +0.55 | 0.6 | 28% |
| 2022-04-09 | Mystic Lake TR | skipper | 2.54 | 1.45 | 5–6 | 7.6 | −1.09 | 2.1 | 98% |
| 2022-03-19 | The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.52 | 2.81 | 13–8 | 11.8 | +0.30 | 0.3 | 36% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | skipper | 2.33 | 2.76 | 12–3 | 11.0 | +0.43 | 0.3 | 39% |
| 2021-10-30 | Dave Perry Team Race | skipper | 2.13 | 1.49 | 4–5 | 5.3 | −0.64 | 0.6 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Harry Anderson Jr Regatta | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.4 | 3.90 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.1 | 3.10 |
| Mystic Lake Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.8 | 4.13 |
| Jan Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 31% | — |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale FJ Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.3 | 3.37 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| NEISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| The Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.7 | 3.44 |
| George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.0 | 3.70 |
| 2022 Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 4.2 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 4.6 | 3.64 |
| Mystic Lake TR | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| The Ivan Geiger Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 21 | 62% | — |
| 84th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.3 | 3.36 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Salt Pond Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.7 | 2.83 |
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 13 | 3.9 | — |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.7 | 2.65 |
| Larry White Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 2 | 6.0 | — |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.3 | 3.29 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
