Oberg Trophy

HostNortheastern
Date04/15/2023
TypeRegional
Boat420/FJ
Scoring3 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	C	TOT
1	Boston College	Eagles	81	79	48	208
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	63	51	98	212
3	University of Rhode Island	Rams	63	116	64	243
4	Fordham University	Rams	85	97	74	256
5	Roger Williams University	Hawks	69	120	77	266
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	94	92	87	273
7	Brown University	Bears 1	100	74	108	282
8	Northeastern University	Huskies	115	118	77	310
9	Boston University	Terriers	143	80	88	311
10	Brown University	Bears 2	91	121	113	325
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	96	92	158	346
12	Salve Regina University	Seahawks	132	94	126	352
13	Harvard University	Crimson	163	155	159	477
14	Columbia University	Lions	175	187	195	557
15	Wildcats	Wildcats	244 MRP	244 MRP	244 MRP	732 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT	Sailors
Yale University	Bulldogs	3	1	3	2	5	5	3	10	1	5	11	7	2	5	63	Nathan Sih '25 Catherine Cheung '24
University of Rhode Island	Rams	8	2	2	3	1	7	2	2	5	4	5	13	7	2	63	Tyler Nash '26 Zachary Severson '26
Roger Williams University	Hawks	1	3	1	1	6	9	1	3	2	9	7	10	6	10	69	Oliver Stokke '26 Claire Buckley '25
Boston College	Eagles	12	10	5	7	2	3	4	5	9	7	1	1	14	1	81	Michael Kirkman '25 Sophia Hacket '25
Fordham University	Rams	5	7	6	6	3	8	10	9	7	2	9	3	4	6	85	Beckett Kumler '24 Bella Rabeni '24
Brown University	Bears 2	6	4	4	11	13	2	6	11	6	8	6	8	3	3	91	Thomas Styron '24 [1-8] Mason Stang '25 [9-14] Catherine Morrissette '24 [1-8]
Tufts University	Jumbos	2	6	10	14	7	4	13	4	3	1	13	12	1	4	94	Patrick Mulcahy '23 Caroline Kelly '23
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	7	9	7	4	9	1	8	1	8	10	2	9	12	9	96	Matthew Elliott '24 Jemma Schroder '24
Brown University	Bears 1	11	5	8	5	8	12	5	6	11	3	4	4	10	8	100	Jed Bell '23 Menasha Leport '25
Northeastern University	Huskies	4	8	9	10	10	6	9	13	10	6	3	6	8	13	115	Will Priebe '24 Sam Barrett '26
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	9	11	11	13	4	10	11	12	4	11	8	11	5	12	132	Nils Tullberg '23 Charlotte Martinez '23
Boston University	Terriers	10	12	14	8	11	14	7	7	12	14	12	2	13	7	143	Porter Bell '26 Sam Whipple '25
Harvard University	Crimson	14	14	13	12	12	13	12	8	13	12	10	5	11	14	163	Matthew Cabot '24 Abigail Fennelly '24
Columbia University	Lions	13	13	12	9	14	11	14	14	14	13	14	14	9	11	175	Chase O'Malley '26 Rachel Peng '23
Wildcats	Wildcats	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	244 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT	Sailors
Yale University	Bulldogs	7	2	11	5	2	1	2	4	8	3	1	3	1	1	51	Mateo Farina '25 Jessi Avila-Shah '25
Brown University	Bears 1	4	11	3	3	1	12	3	2	4	8	6	8	6	3	74	Hunter Zonnenberg '23 Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26
Boston College	Eagles	1	4	4	10	10	7	5	5	1	2	4	7	13	6	79	Peter Joslin '26 Lourdes Gallo '24
Boston University	Terriers	11	3	9	2	9	2	1	7	7	9	9	1	2	8	80	Nathan Selian '25 Jack Cariaso '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	3	5	2	7	5	5	8	9	10	10	5	6	5	12	92	Max Katz-Christy '25 Soleh Anderlini '23
Tufts University	Jumbos	10	12	5	9	8	11	7	6	2	6	3	2	9	2	92	Bryan Trammell '23 Leo Terry '25
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	6	7	10	4	7	6	6	3	5	7	8	9	11	5	94	Emil Tullberg '25 Shannon Gondoly '25
Fordham University	Rams	2	1	12	DNF	4	4	DSQ	8	3	1	12	10	4	4	97	Peter Lobaugh '24 Lauren Miller '23
University of Rhode Island	Rams	13	8	7	1	13	8	9	12	9	4	14	4	3	11	116	Olin Guck '26 Eric Pohl '28
Northeastern University	Huskies	9	10	1	11	6	9	11	10	6	5	10	12	8	10	118	Joshua Dillon '25 Lila Coffman '26
Roger Williams University	Hawks	5	6	6	12	11	3	10	11	11	DSQ	2	11	7	9	120	Jack Roman '26 Katharine Benagh '24
Brown University	Bears 2	8	13	8	8	12	13	4	1	12	11	7	5	12	7	121	Charlotte Costikyan '24 [1-10] Connor Macken '24 [11-14] Sierra Bornheim '24 [1-10] Talia Levine '26 [11-14]
Harvard University	Crimson	14	9	13	6	3	10	13	14	13	13	11	13	10	13	155	Olivia Hogan-Lopez '26 Daniella Bregman '25
Columbia University	Lions	12	14	14	13	14	14	12	13	14	12	13	14	14	14	187	Alison Keenan '22 Elaine Kharbanda '24
Wildcats	Wildcats	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	244 MRP

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT	Sailors
Boston College	Eagles	3	2	5	3	4	3	5	1	4	8	1	1	7	1	48	Peter Busch '26 Lily Ornstein '26
University of Rhode Island	Rams	8	4	2	7	6	4	3	3	5	2	3	6	4	7	64	Okyanus Arıkan '26 Elizabeth Taylor '24
Fordham University	Rams	1	1	3	4	5	6	11	2	12	5	4	5	6	9	74	Connor Bennett '26 Leah Spadaro '25
Northeastern University	Huskies	5	11	1	1	7	9	6	8	1	3	10	11	1	3	77	Adrian Winkelman '25 Zoe Grant '25
Roger Williams University	Hawks	9	5	8	2	8	1	2	6	8	7	9	3	3	6	77	Drew Mastovsky '26 Ruby Hope '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	10	3	6	6	11	2	9	9	9	1	2	4	11	4	87	Adrien Bellanger '25 Cecilia Adams '23
Boston University	Terriers	2	8	13	5	3	10	1	10	3	11	8	7	2	5	88	Gavin Monaghan '26 Lachlan Hooper '25
Yale University	Bulldogs	11	7	7	9	9	7	4	4	6	10	11	2	9	2	98	Christophe Chaumont '23 Sydney Zoehrer '24
Brown University	Bears 1	6	6	9	8	2	11	12	12	2	4	7	9	12	8	108	William George '23 Hannah Sellers '26
Brown University	Bears 2	7	DSQ	12	11	1	8	7	7	7	6	6	8	5	12	113	Katharine Doble '26 Janelle Li '25
Salve Regina University	Seahawks	4	10	11	12	12	5	10	5	13	9	5	12	8	10	126	Pearl Lattanzi '23 Caelan Haddock '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	13	9	10	10	13	12	8	11	10	13	12	13	13	11	158	Alexander Horne '26 [1-8] Brooke Barry '26 [9-11] Lucas Escandon '26 [12-14] Sarah Aaronson '23 [1-8] Lucas Escandon '26 [9-11] Brooke Barry '26 [12-14]
Harvard University	Crimson	12	12	4	13	10	13	13	13	11	12	13	10	10	13	159	Alexander Lee '23 Lily Bartlett '24
Columbia University	Lions	14	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	195	Emily Lo '24 Alexander Lacayo '26
Wildcats	Wildcats	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	244 MRP

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A
Boston College Eagles	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Boston University Terriers	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Brown University Bears 1	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
Brown University Bears 2	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Columbia University Lions	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11
Fordham University Rams	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Harvard University Crimson	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Northeastern University Huskies	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	1	1
Wildcats Wildcats	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	16	16	16	16	16	16
University of Rhode Island Rams	14	14	15	15	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5
Roger Williams University Hawks	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	14	14	1	1	2	2
Salve Regina University Seahawks	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	1	1	2	2	3	3
Tufts University Jumbos	13	13	14	14	15	15	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Yale University Bulldogs	15	15	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B
Boston College Eagles	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Boston University Terriers	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Brown University Bears 1	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
Brown University Bears 2	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Columbia University Lions	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11
Fordham University Rams	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Harvard University Crimson	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Northeastern University Huskies	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	1	1
Wildcats Wildcats	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	15	15
University of Rhode Island Rams	14	14	15	15	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5
Roger Williams University Hawks	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	1	1	2	2
Salve Regina University Seahawks	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	1	1	2	2	3	3
Tufts University Jumbos	13	13	14	14	15	15	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Yale University Bulldogs	15	15	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6

Division C

Team	1C	2C	3C	4C	5C	6C	7C	8C	9C	10C	11C	12C	13C	14C
Boston College Eagles	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Boston University Terriers	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Brown University Bears 1	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
Brown University Bears 2	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10
Columbia University Lions	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11
Fordham University Rams	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12
Harvard University Crimson	7	7	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	8	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14
Northeastern University Huskies	9	9	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	1	1
Wildcats Wildcats	10	10	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	16	16	16	16
University of Rhode Island Rams	14	14	15	15	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5
Roger Williams University Hawks	11	11	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	1	1	2	2
Salve Regina University Seahawks	12	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	1	1	2	2	3	3
Tufts University Jumbos	13	13	14	14	15	15	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Yale University Bulldogs	15	15	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Boston College	Michael Kirkman '25	Sophia Hacket '25
Eagles	Peter Joslin '26	Lourdes Gallo '24
	Peter Busch '26	Lily Ornstein '26
Boston University	Porter Bell '26	Sam Whipple '25
Terriers	Nathan Selian '25	Jack Cariaso '25
	Gavin Monaghan '26	Lachlan Hooper '25
Brown University	Jed Bell '23	Menasha Leport '25
Bears 1	Hunter Zonnenberg '23	Caroline Keeffe-Jones '26
	William George '23	Hannah Sellers '26
Brown University	Thomas Styron '24 [1-8] Mason Stang '25 [9-14]	Catherine Morrissette '24 [1-8]
Bears 2	Charlotte Costikyan '24 [1-10] Connor Macken '24 [11-14]	Sierra Bornheim '24 [1-10] Talia Levine '26 [11-14]
	Katharine Doble '26	Janelle Li '25
Columbia University	Chase O'Malley '26	Rachel Peng '23
Lions	Alison Keenan '22	Elaine Kharbanda '24
	Emily Lo '24	Alexander Lacayo '26
Fordham University	Beckett Kumler '24	Bella Rabeni '24
Rams	Peter Lobaugh '24	Lauren Miller '23
	Connor Bennett '26	Leah Spadaro '25
Harvard University	Matthew Cabot '24	Abigail Fennelly '24
Crimson	Olivia Hogan-Lopez '26	Daniella Bregman '25
	Alexander Lee '23	Lily Bartlett '24
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Matthew Elliott '24	Jemma Schroder '24
Engineers	Max Katz-Christy '25	Soleh Anderlini '23
	Alexander Horne '26 [1-8] Brooke Barry '26 [9-11] Lucas Escandon '26 [12-14]	Sarah Aaronson '23 [1-8] Lucas Escandon '26 [9-11] Brooke Barry '26 [12-14]
Northeastern University	Will Priebe '24	Sam Barrett '26
Huskies	Joshua Dillon '25	Lila Coffman '26
	Adrian Winkelman '25	Zoe Grant '25
Roger Williams University	Oliver Stokke '26	Claire Buckley '25
Hawks	Jack Roman '26	Katharine Benagh '24
	Drew Mastovsky '26	Ruby Hope '25
Salve Regina University	Nils Tullberg '23	Charlotte Martinez '23
Seahawks	Emil Tullberg '25	Shannon Gondoly '25
	Pearl Lattanzi '23	Caelan Haddock '25
Tufts University	Patrick Mulcahy '23	Caroline Kelly '23
Jumbos	Bryan Trammell '23	Leo Terry '25
	Adrien Bellanger '25	Cecilia Adams '23
University of Rhode Island	Tyler Nash '26	Zachary Severson '26
Rams	Olin Guck '26	Eric Pohl '28
	Okyanus Arıkan '26	Elizabeth Taylor '24
Yale University	Nathan Sih '25	Catherine Cheung '24
Bulldogs	Mateo Farina '25	Jessi Avila-Shah '25
	Christophe Chaumont '23	Sydney Zoehrer '24

Conditions — 04/15/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 78% · Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

57°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.9 kn

avg · max 10.9 kn

Gusts to 21.0 kn

From ENE (68°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1015.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 9 kn · E 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Northeastern: a typical day (−0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.42 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Northeastern by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (21 labelled days at Northeastern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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