Northeastern University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.59 (fleet 3.53) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.04 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 26–48 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 12–20 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 3 | 14–28 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (74 matches) the record is 26–48 against 24.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-18 | Southern NE Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 1.94 | 2–10 | 3.4 | −0.73 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2023-03-11 | Wood Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.66 | 4.02 | 9–5 | 5.7 | +1.36 | 3.2 | 3% |
| 2023-03-05 | Sharpe Trophy Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 3.07 | 1–5 | 0.8 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 2022-04-09 | Mystic Lake TR | skipper | 2.38 | 2.23 | 5–9 | 5.4 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2022-03-12 | MIT Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.35 | 3.49 | 4–3 | 2.7 | +1.13 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 2022-03-05 | McMerrick Cup Team Race | skipper | 1.99 | 1.53 | 5–16 | 6.5 | −0.45 | 0.5 | 86% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Western Open National Semi-Finals | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.4 | 3.70 |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 3.8 | 3.98 |
| Truxtun Umstead Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.4 | 3.24 |
| NEISA Open Dinghy Championship/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.3 | 3.22 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.2 | 3.19 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.7 | 3.47 |
| Open ACCs Round 1B | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.3 | 3.46 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 14.0 | 2.44 |
| Harry Anderson Jr Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.0 | 3.29 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 15.4 | 3.07 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.8 | 3.33 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.0 | 3.58 |
| The 82nd Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.7 | 3.49 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Southern NE Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Sharpe Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Open New England Fleet Race Championship | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.1 | 2.98 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.2 | 2.73 |
| Connecticut Valley Dinghy Championship Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.3 | 2.95 |
| 85th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 14 | 7.8 | 3.53 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.8 | 3.74 |
| Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 11.9 | 3.21 |
| Rudi Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.7 | 3.01 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.2 | 3.02 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.1 | 3.59 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 13.6 | 2.84 |
| 31st Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.2 | 4.21 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.6 | 2.63 |
| Mystic Lake TR | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| MIT Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 8 | 62% | — |
| McMerrick Cup Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 24% | — |
| J70 Invite #3 Keelboat | Crew | A | 14 | 3.8 | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.0 | 2.88 |
| Connecticut Valley Dinghy Championship Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.4 | 2.27 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Penobscot Bay Open | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.5 | 0.21 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 5 | 9.8 | 3.30 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.2 | 3.35 |
| 30th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 14 | 10.6 | 2.50 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.5 | 2.86 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
