Southern NE Team Race

HostConnecticut College
Date03/18/2023
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	12–2
2	Connecticut College	Camels	11–3
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	8–6
4	Boston College	Eagles	7–7
5	Tufts University	Jumbos	6–8
6	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	6–8
7	Boston University	Terriers	7–5
8	University of Rhode Island	Rams	4–8
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	3–9
10	Northeastern University	Huskies	2–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 19,847 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 47 of 62 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.539 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.21 ± 0.29: a typical event, more orderly than 68% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	10.35 school +0.27	Cameron Wood / Michaela Odonnell 3.42 10–1 Mathieu Dale / Annika Irene 3.11 9–2 Aidan Hoogland / Molly Matthews 3.51 8–2 Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 3.39 9–1	78%	12–2 (86%)	+1.0
2	Connecticut College Camels	2	9.86 school +0.33, home +0.41	Cj Mckenna / Alexandra Tillinghast 3.10 Thomas Whittemore / Cecilia Bohan 3.15 Walter Henry / Margaret Benson 2.86	70%	9–3 (75%)	+0.5
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6	8.89 school −0.05	Maks Groom / Wendy Wu 2.92 Sam Bruce / Maaya Prasad 3.36 Julius Heitkoetter / Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen 2.65 6–4 Julius Heitkoetter / Jemma Schroder 2.61 2–2	44%	8–6 (57%)	+1.8
4	Boston College Eagles	3	9.57 school +0.24	Colleen O'Brien / John (Jack) Plavan 3.13 Michaela O'Brien / Lilly Mathieu 3.34 Peter Joslin / Sara Schumann 2.82	65%	5–4 (56%)	−0.9
5	Tufts University Jumbos	7	8.72 school +0.08	Trevor Davis / Celia Byrne 3.00 Patrick Mulcahy / Caroline Kelly 2.62 Ben Mueller / Henry Tindall 2.98 6–8 Ben Mueller / William Eykyn 2.99 1–1	42%	7–9 (44%)	+0.3
6	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4	9.38 school +0.17	Thomas Hall / Hattie Slayton 3.23 Thibault Antonietti / Meghan Gonzalez 2.90 Christopher Lukens / Timmy Gee 3.08 2–5 Christopher Lukens / Isabelle Tsuchitori 3.00 3–2	59%	5–7 (42%)	−2.1
7	Boston University Terriers	5	8.31	Tyler Mowry / Catherine Shakin 2.95 Noah Robitshek / Abigail Murray 2.65 Micky Munns / Adam Elci 2.72	45%	7–5 (58%)	+1.6
8	University of Rhode Island Rams	8	7.94	Jonathan Riley / Clare Laroche 2.30 Kerem Erkmen / Abbie Chipps 3.11 Joshua Bartoszuk / Sadie Thomas 2.52	35%	4–8 (33%)	−0.2
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	9	7.84 school −0.10	Emma Snead / Laura Slovensky 2.58 Nicholas Reeser / Daniel Neville 3.00 Jack Derry / Aiana Cayao 2.32	34%	3–8 (27%)	−0.7
10	Northeastern University Huskies	10	7.66 school +0.33	Joshua Dillon / Sam Barrett 2.25 Ted Bjerregaard / Isabella Welch 2.37 Will Priebe / Rob Brower 2.67 1–6 Will Priebe / Zoe Grant 2.72 1–4	28%	2–10 (17%)	−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
7	Boston University	8.31	8.93	7–5	5.4	+0.62	0.7	25%
3	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.89	9.51	8–6	6.2	+0.62	0.8	22%
1	Roger Williams University	10.35	10.89	12–2	11.0	+0.53	0.4	38%
2	Connecticut College	9.86	10.12	9–3	8.5	+0.26	0.1	50%
5	Tufts University	8.72	8.83	7–9	6.7	+0.10	0.0	53%
8	University of Rhode Island	7.94	7.86	4–8	4.2	−0.08	0.0	67%
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	7.84	7.49	3–8	3.7	−0.35	0.2	79%
4	Boston College	9.57	9.11	5–4	5.9	−0.46	0.3	85%
10	Northeastern University	7.66	6.93	2–10	3.4	−0.73	0.7	90%
6	Bowdoin College	9.38	8.53	5–7	7.1	−0.84	1.3	95%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	3.39	4.26	9–1	8.0	+0.88	0.6	35%
Thomas Whittemore	Connecticut College	3.15	3.42	9–3	8.5	+0.26	0.1	50%
Walter Henry	Connecticut College	2.86	3.12	9–3	8.5	+0.26	0.1	50%
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	2.98	3.08	7–9	6.7	+0.10	0.0	53%
Patrick Mulcahy	Tufts University	2.62	2.73	7–9	6.7	+0.10	0.0	53%
Aidan Hoogland	Roger Williams University	3.51	3.48	8–2	8.0	−0.03	0.0	70%
Kerem Erkmen	University of Rhode Island	3.11	3.02	4–8	4.2	−0.08	0.0	67%
Joshua Bartoszuk	University of Rhode Island	2.52	2.43	4–8	4.2	−0.08	0.0	67%
Jack Derry	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.32	1.97	3–8	3.7	−0.35	0.2	79%
Will Priebe	Northeastern University	2.67	1.94	2–10	3.4	−0.73	0.7	90%
Joshua Dillon	Northeastern University	2.25	1.53	2–10	3.4	−0.73	0.7	90%
Thibault Antonietti	Bowdoin College	2.90	2.06	5–7	7.1	−0.84	1.3	95%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Connecticut College	Northeastern University	90%
1	2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	75%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Boston University	88%
1	4	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	67%
1	5	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	84%
1	6	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	88%
1	7	Boston University	Northeastern University	66%
1	8	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	62%
1	9	University of Rhode Island	Roger Williams University	8%	upset
1	10	Tufts University	Boston College	30%	upset
1	11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston University	38%	upset
1	12	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	61%
1	13	University of Rhode Island	Northeastern University	57%
1	14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	55%
1	15	Roger Williams University	Boston College	65%
1	16	Boston University	Bowdoin College	25%	upset
1	17	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	48%	upset
1	18	Connecticut College	Tufts University	76%
1	19	Roger Williams University	Northeastern University	95%
1	20	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	33%	upset
1	21	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	80%
1	22	Tufts University	Boston University	60%
1	23	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	92%
1	24	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	27%	upset
1	25	Boston College	Northeastern University	87%
1	26	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	32%	upset
1	27	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	73%
1	28	Boston University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	36%	upset
1	29	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Northeastern University	54%
1	31	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	82%
1	32	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	72%
1	33	Bowdoin College	Northeastern University	84%
1	34	Connecticut College	Boston University	82%
1	36	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	85%
1	37	Tufts University	Northeastern University	74%
1	38	Connecticut College	University of Rhode Island	87%
1	39	Bowdoin College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	82%
1	41	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Northeastern University	77%
1	42	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	61%
1	43	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	70%
1	44	Boston University	University of Rhode Island	59%
3	49	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	54%
3	50	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	61%
3	51	Roger Williams University	Boston College	65%
3	52	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	34%	upset
3	53	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	85%
3	55	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	82%
3	57	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	73%
3	58	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	73%
3	59	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	67%
3	60	Tufts University	Connecticut College	25%	upset
3	61	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	38%	upset
3	62	Connecticut College	Roger Williams University	39%	upset
3	63	Boston College	Tufts University	70%
4	64	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	53%
4	65	Boston University	Northeastern University	66%
4	66	Northeastern University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	46%	upset
4	67	Boston University	University of Rhode Island	58%
4	68	Northeastern University	University of Rhode Island	42%	upset
4	69	Boston University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	61%
5	47	Boston College	Tufts University	70%
5	48	Tufts University	Boston University	60%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Camels	Engineers	Eagles	Jumbos	Bears	Terriers	Rams	Bears	Huskies
Roger Williams University Hawks	8–1	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	7–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6–3	L	W	✕	W	W	L	L	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–5	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–5	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6–3	L	L	W	W	W	✕	L	W	W	W
Boston University Terriers	4–5	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	3–6	W	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W
Northeastern University Huskies	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Camels	Engineers	Eagles	Jumbos	Bears
Roger Williams University Hawks	4–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	4–1	W	✕	W	W	L	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	2–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Terriers	Rams	Bears	Huskies
Boston University Terriers	3–0	✕	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	1–2	L	✕	W	L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	0–3	L	L	✕	L
Northeastern University Huskies	2–1	L	W	W	✕

Round 5

Team	Rec.	Eagles	Jumbos	Terriers
Boston College Eagles	1–1	✕	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	1–1	L	✕	W
Boston University Terriers	1–1	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Huskies	2-5-6
2	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
3	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Terriers	1-5-6
4	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
5	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
6	Camels	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
7	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
8	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
9	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
10	Jumbos	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
11	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Terriers	2-4-5
12	Camels	1-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	2-5-6
13	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Huskies	2-5-6
14	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
15	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
16	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
17	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
18	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
19	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
20	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
21	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
22	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Terriers	4-5-6
23	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
24	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
25	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
26	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
27	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
28	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
29	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
30	Camels	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
31	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
32	Engineers	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
33	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
34	Camels	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6
35	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
36	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
37	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
38	Camels	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
39	Polar Bears	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
40	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Terriers	3-4-6
41	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
42	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
43	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
44	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
45	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
49	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
50	Camels	2-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	1-4-6
51	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
52	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
53	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
54	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
55	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
56	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
57	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
58	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
59	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
60	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Camels	2-3-6
61	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
62	Camels	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
63	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
64	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
65	Terriers	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
66	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
67	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
68	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
69	Terriers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
46	Terriers	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
47	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
48	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Terriers	2-3-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Aidan Hoogland '24 Cameron Wood '22 Carlos De Castro '26 Mathieu Dale '25	Molly Matthews '23 Michaela Odonnell '24 Carly Kiss '25 Annika Irene '23
Connecticut College	Camels	Cj Mckenna '23 Thomas Whittemore '23 Walter Henry '23	Alexandra Tillinghast '23 Cecilia Bohan '24 Margaret Benson '23
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Julius Heitkoetter '25 Maks Groom '24 Sam Bruce '24	Jemma Schroder '24 Abigail Vanlonkhuyzen '23 Wendy Wu '23 Maaya Prasad '22
Boston College	Eagles	Colleen O'Brien '24 Michaela O'Brien '24 Peter Joslin '26	John (Jack) Plavan '23 Lilly Mathieu '23 Sara Schumann '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 Patrick Mulcahy '23 Trevor Davis '24	Henry Tindall '25 William Eykyn '25 Caroline Kelly '23 Celia Byrne '24
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Christopher Lukens '23 Thibault Antonietti '24 Thomas Hall '25	Timmy Gee '25 Isabelle Tsuchitori '26 Meghan Gonzalez '23 Hattie Slayton '23
Boston University	Terriers	Micky Munns '23 Noah Robitshek '25 Tyler Mowry '23	Adam Elci '26 Abigail Murray '23 Catherine Shakin '23
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Jonathan Riley '23 Joshua Bartoszuk '25 Kerem Erkmen '25	Clare Laroche '23 Sadie Thomas '25 Abbie Chipps '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Emma Snead '23 Jack Derry '25 Nicholas Reeser '25	Laura Slovensky '25 Aiana Cayao '26 Daniel Neville '25
Northeastern University	Huskies	Joshua Dillon '25 Ted Bjerregaard '23 Will Priebe '24	Sam Barrett '26 Isabella Welch '25 Rob Brower '23 Zoe Grant '25

Conditions — 03/18/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 48% · Pressure 1004.6 hPa

Temperature

46°F

↑ 51°F ↓ 41°F

Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.7 kn

avg · max 9.7 kn

Gusts to 21.4 kn

From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover83% Sunshine9.3 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1004.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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