| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Harvard University | Crimson | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 6–1 |
| 3 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 3–4 |
| 5 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Engineers | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Northeastern University | Huskies | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
Salve Regina University | Seahawks | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 19,353 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 21 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.366 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.13 ± 0.39: a typical event, more orderly than 56% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harvard University | 11.45 | 14.45 | 6–0 | 4.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.8 | 27% |
| 3 | Brown University | 9.99 | 10.64 | 4–2 | 3.4 | +0.64 | 0.3 | 46% |
| 7 | Northeastern University | 7.40 | 7.79 | 1–5 | 0.8 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 2 | Yale University | 11.43 | 11.53 | 5–1 | 4.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 4 | Tufts University | 8.73 | 8.73 | 2–4 | 2.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 6 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 7.90 | 7.67 | 1–5 | 1.1 | −0.23 | 0.0 | 79% |
| 5 | Dartmouth College | 10.35 | 8.34 | 2–4 | 3.8 | −2.00 | 2.6 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Ascencios | Harvard University | 3.52 | 6.52 | 6–0 | 4.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.8 | 27% |
| Jed Bell | Brown University | 2.88 | 3.46 | 3–2 | 2.5 | +0.58 | 0.2 | 50% |
| Joshua Dillon | Northeastern University | 2.21 | 2.60 | 1–5 | 0.8 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 59% |
| Will Priebe | Northeastern University | 2.67 | 3.07 | 1–5 | 0.8 | +0.39 | 0.1 | 59% |
| Carmen Cowles | Yale University | 3.66 | 3.75 | 5–1 | 4.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | Tufts University | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2–4 | 2.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Ben Mueller | Tufts University | 2.77 | 2.77 | 2–4 | 2.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 73% |
| James Paul | Dartmouth College | 3.03 | 1.02 | 2–4 | 3.8 | −2.00 | 2.6 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Crimson | Bulldogs | Bears | Jumbos | Green | Engineers | Huskies | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard University Crimson | 7–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 6–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 5–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 3–4 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 3–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Northeastern University Huskies | 2–5 | L | L | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Salve Regina University Seahawks | 0–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Jumbos | 3-4-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-2-6 DSQ |
| 3 | |
Crimson | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 2-3-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Jumbos | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Engineers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Huskies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Big Green | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Huskies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Engineers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Crimson | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Jumbos | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Engineers | 2-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Huskies | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Big Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Crimson | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
