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2022 Pine Trophy

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 24 24
2 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 27 27
3 Boston College Boston College Eagles 30 30
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 34 34
5 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 34 34
6 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 38 38
7 Boston University Boston University Terriers 44 44
8 Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 57 57
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 4 3 3 3 1 1 2 7 24
Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 5 1 7 1 4 2 1 6 27
Boston College Boston College Eagles 3 5 2 5 2 8 3 2 30
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 2 1 6 6 7 6 4 34
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 6 6 5 2 7 3 4 1 34
Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 1 4 6 7 5 5 5 5 38
Boston University Boston University Terriers 7 7 4 4 8 4 7 3 44
Connecticut College Connecticut College Camels 8 8 8 8 3 6 8 8 57

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  8 boats · 8 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1William O'Leary '24U. S. Coast Guard Academy8/82.39u3.55+1.1599th → 99th4.15%3.0 / 4.8
2Jack Egan '25Yale University8/83.153.12−0.0399th → 99th0.047%3.4 / 3.6
3Michael Kirkman '25Boston College8/82.542.97+0.4399th → 99th0.628%3.8 / 4.6
4Guthrie Braun '26Brown University8/82.602.77+0.1799th → 99th0.146%4.2 / 4.5
4Justin Callahan '26Harvard University8/83.302.71−0.6099th → 99th1.678%4.2 / 3.5
6Carlos de Castro '26Roger Williams University8/82.342.73+0.3999th → 99th0.649%4.8 / 4.8
7Noah Robitshek '25Boston University8/82.212.27+0.0699th → 99th0.066%5.5 / 5.0
8Walter Henry '23Connecticut College8/82.030.47−1.5799th → 46th5.296%7.1 / 5.3

Conditions — 09/10/2022 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 56%  ·  Pressure 1022.7 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 16.5 kn
From WSW (259°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover42% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1022.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Coast Guard — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Coast Guard in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 10% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Coast Guard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (57 labelled fleet-race days at Coast Guard).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →