APS Team Race National Championship

HostSt. Mary's
Date05/31/2014
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	22–3
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	18–7
3	Stanford University	Cardinal	17–8
4	Boston College	Eagles	15–10
5	Georgetown University	Hoyas	14–8
5	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	14–8
7	Roger Williams University	Hawks	12–10
8	Tufts University	Jumbos	11–11
9	College of Charleston	Cougars	9–6
10	University of South Florida	Bulls	6–9
11	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	4–11
12	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	4–11
13	University of Michigan	Wolverines	4–11
14	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	3–12
15	University of Washington	Huskies	1–14
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	0–15

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,766 team race matches sailed before 2014-05-31, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 126 of 154 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.373 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.13 ± 0.16: a typical event, more orderly than 56% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	13.23 school −0.12	Christopher Segerblom / Charlotte Belling 4.06 21–2 Ian Barrows / Marlena Fauer 4.41 16–2 Graham Landy / Katherine Gaumond 4.94 14–3 Graham Landy / Eugenia Custo Greig 4.84 8–0 Ian Barrows / Amanda Salvesen 4.24 6–1 Christopher Segerblom / Marlena Fauer 3.99 1–1	84%	22–3 (88%)	+1.1
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5	12.21 school +0.58, home +0.33	Fletcher Sims / Kelley Merryman 3.95 Joshua Greenslade / Nicole Deangeli 4.09 John Wallace / Allison Shane 3.21	65%	18–7 (72%)	+1.8
3	Stanford University Cardinal	3	12.60 school +0.28	Kevin Laube / Yuri Namikawa 4.30 16–8 Mateo Vargas / Tally Buckstaff 4.06 9–7 Kieran Chung / Haley Kirk 4.17 12–3 Oliver Toole / Carolyn Ortel 3.90 5–5 Hans Henken / Mary Vangelos 3.72 8–1 Antoine Screve / Helena Scutt 3.88 1–0	72%	17–8 (68%)	−1.0
4	Boston College Eagles	6	11.81 school −0.06	William Bailey / Katherine Wysocki 3.88 Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 3.96 Raul Rios / Shelby Hamilton 3.99	57%	15–10 (60%)	+0.8
5	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	12.49	Nevin Snow / Katia Dasilva 4.90 Sean Golden / Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga 3.81 13–8 Alex Post / Bettina Redway 3.84 9–4 Alex Post / Katie Olsen 3.68 4–4 Sean Golden / Eliana Michaels 3.78 1–0 Alex Post / Amanda Taselaar 3.40 1–0	73%	14–8 (64%)	−2.1
5	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	9	11.21 school +0.09	Michael Grove / Alexandra Asuncion 3.89 12–5 Michael Popp / Chelsea Smith 3.56 11–6 Mary Hall / Elizabeth Morrison 3.71 7–5 Mary Hall / Patrick Snow 3.70 3–3 Michael Popp / Connor Hendi 3.50 3–2 Michael Grove / Emma Ferris 3.77 2–3 Patrick Snow / Emma Ferris 3.39 2–0 Mary Hall / Aaron Hull 3.74 2–0	50%	14–8 (64%)	+3.0
7	Roger Williams University Hawks	8	11.29	Connor Corgard / Abby Preston 3.70 Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 3.54 William Macdonald / Breanne Baldino 4.00 12–8 William Macdonald / James Kennedy 3.76 0–2	50%	12–10 (55%)	+0.9
8	Tufts University Jumbos	7	11.62 school +0.05	William Haeger / Paula Grasberger 4.31 David Liebenberg / Kathleen Kwasniak 3.46 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Sam Madden 3.78 10–10 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Alexander Tong 3.52 1–1	56%	11–11 (50%)	−1.3
9	College of Charleston Cougars	4	11.77 school +0.21	Nick Johnstone / Septima Mcadams 3.54 Jake Reynolds / Alicia Blumenthal 4.18 8–6 Ryan Davidson / Emily Stuart 3.83 6–6 Ryan Davidson / Rebekah Schiff 3.86 2–0 Jake Reynolds / Rebekah Schiff 4.09 1–0 Ryan Davidson / Roy Shaw 3.62 1–0	67%	9–6 (60%)	−1.1
10	University of South Florida Bulls	11	9.57 school −0.13	Christopher Stocke / Ali Yarbrough 3.85 4–4 Christopher Stocke / Kristen Walker 3.71 2–5 Connor Brady / Paul Perry 2.84 3–3 Fernando Monllor / Rebecca Campbell 3.35 3–3 Connor Brady / Rebecca Campbell 3.00 1–4 Aj Degen / Paul Perry 2.69 1–4 Connor Brady / Kristen Walker 2.87 2–2 Aj Degen / Rebecca Campbell 2.85 2–2	35%	6–9 (40%)	+0.7
11	Old Dominion University Monarchs	10	9.64 school −0.19	Daniel Lochner / Colin Voigt 3.11 Esteban Forrer / Julia Wiesner 3.89 4–10 Jacob Spracher / Chloe Constants 2.81 3–9 Jacob Spracher / Katelyn Talley 2.74 1–1 Joseph David / Chloe Constants 2.76 0–1 Esteban Forrer / Gabriel Smith 3.85 0–1	36%	4–11 (27%)	−1.5
12	University of Wisconsin Badgers	14	8.15 school −0.31	Michael Lee / Katrina Debbink 3.09 2–11 George Kutschenreuter / Jennifer Burke 3.17 1–10 John Kinzel / Erin Monahan 2.13 1–10 John Kinzel / Caya Mcfalls 2.01 3–1 George Kutschenreuter / Charles Bocklet 3.16 1–1 George Kutschenreuter / Elliot Busta 3.09 2–0 Michael Lee / Kelsea Kierstead 3.11 2–0	20%	4–11 (27%)	+1.0
13	University of Michigan Wolverines	12	9.28 school +0.16	Will Cyr / Karinne Smolenyak 2.75 Ryan Seago / Elizabeth Wallace 3.18 Alex Ramos / Scott Ismail 3.14	31%	4–11 (27%)	−0.7
14	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	13	9.09	Ian Stokes / Natalie Davidson 3.29 Stephen Long / Kristina Miller 3.48 2–9 Grant Rickon / Ginger Luckey 2.26 2–9 Stephen Long / Ginger Luckey 3.48 1–3 Grant Rickon / Kristina Miller 2.22 1–3	29%	3–12 (20%)	−1.3
15	University of Washington Huskies	15	6.00 school +0.21	Kris Thompson / Molly Utter 2.57 Lily Grimshaw / Sarah Redmond 1–13 Kate Flanagan / Melissa Hickenbottom 1–8 Andrew Fitzgerald / Melissa Hickenbottom 0–4 Kate Flanagan / Andrew Fitzgerald 0–2 Lily Grimshaw / Andrew Fitzgerald 0–1	7%	1–14 (7%)	−0.0
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	16	4.78 school −0.12	Trey Hartman / Rachel Mcmahon 1.89 Jacob Hafemeister / Kayla Sjoberg 1.42 Ryan Murphy / Brittney Crawford 1.48	2%	0–15 (0%)	−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
5	U. S. Naval Academy	11.21	12.03	14–8	11.0	+0.82	1.8	9%
12	University of Wisconsin	8.15	8.96	4–11	3.0	+0.81	0.6	28%
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	12.21	12.64	18–7	16.2	+0.44	0.6	26%
10	University of South Florida	9.57	9.98	6–9	5.3	+0.41	0.2	43%
1	Yale University	13.23	13.61	22–3	20.9	+0.38	0.3	39%
7	Roger Williams University	11.29	11.54	12–10	11.1	+0.26	0.2	41%
4	Boston College	11.81	12.00	15–10	14.2	+0.18	0.1	44%
15	University of Washington	6.00	5.93	1–14	1.0	−0.07	0.0	83%
3	Stanford University	12.60	12.34	17–8	18.0	−0.25	0.2	78%
8	Tufts University	11.62	11.25	11–11	12.3	−0.37	0.3	83%
13	University of Michigan	9.28	8.81	4–11	4.7	−0.47	0.2	83%
9	College of Charleston	11.77	11.27	9–6	10.1	−0.51	0.4	86%
5	Georgetown University	12.49	11.89	14–8	16.1	−0.60	0.9	92%
11	Old Dominion University	9.64	8.66	4–11	5.5	−0.97	1.0	95%
14	University of California at Santa Barbara	9.09	8.01	3–12	4.3	−1.07	0.9	95%
16	Texas A&M University at Galveston	4.78	1.78	0–15	0.3	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Hans Henken	Stanford University	3.72	4.58	8–1	7.1	+0.86	0.5	39%
Michael Grove	U. S. Naval Academy	3.89	4.71	14–8	11.0	+0.82	1.8	9%
Michael Popp	U. S. Naval Academy	3.56	4.37	14–8	11.0	+0.82	1.8	9%
Mary Hall	U. S. Naval Academy	3.71	4.53	12–8	9.0	+0.81	1.8	9%
George Kutschenreuter	University of Wisconsin	3.17	3.99	4–11	3.0	+0.81	0.6	28%
John Kinzel	University of Wisconsin	2.13	2.94	4–11	3.0	+0.81	0.6	28%
Michael Lee	University of Wisconsin	3.09	3.90	4–11	3.0	+0.81	0.6	28%
Aj Degen	University of South Florida	2.69	3.17	3–6	2.6	+0.48	0.1	52%
Fletcher Sims	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.95	4.39	18–7	16.2	+0.44	0.6	26%
Joshua Greenslade	St. Mary's College of Maryland	4.09	4.53	18–7	16.2	+0.44	0.6	26%
John Wallace	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.21	3.65	18–7	16.2	+0.44	0.6	26%
Christopher Stocke	University of South Florida	3.85	4.26	6–9	5.3	+0.41	0.2	43%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.41	4.79	22–3	20.9	+0.38	0.3	39%
Graham Landy	Yale University	4.94	5.33	22–3	20.9	+0.38	0.3	39%
Christopher Segerblom	Yale University	4.06	4.44	22–3	20.9	+0.38	0.3	39%
Fernando Monllor	University of South Florida	3.35	3.69	3–3	2.7	+0.34	0.1	60%
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	4.00	4.25	12–10	11.1	+0.26	0.2	41%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.70	3.96	12–10	11.1	+0.26	0.2	41%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.54	3.79	12–10	11.1	+0.26	0.2	41%
William Bailey	Boston College	3.88	4.07	15–10	14.2	+0.18	0.1	44%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	3.96	4.14	15–10	14.2	+0.18	0.1	44%
Raul Rios	Boston College	3.99	4.17	15–10	14.2	+0.18	0.1	44%
Kate Flanagan	University of Washington	0.80	0.83	1–10	1.0	+0.04	0.0	82%
Kris Thompson	University of Washington	2.57	2.50	1–14	1.0	−0.07	0.0	83%
Lily Grimshaw	University of Washington	2.09	2.02	1–14	1.0	−0.07	0.0	83%
Kieran Chung	Stanford University	4.17	3.98	12–3	12.4	−0.20	0.1	75%
Kevin Laube	Stanford University	4.30	4.04	16–8	17.0	−0.25	0.2	78%
Oliver Toole	Stanford University	3.90	3.60	5–5	5.7	−0.30	0.1	79%
William Haeger	Tufts University	4.31	3.95	11–11	12.3	−0.37	0.3	83%
David Liebenberg	Tufts University	3.46	3.09	11–11	12.3	−0.37	0.3	83%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon	Tufts University	3.78	3.42	11–11	12.3	−0.37	0.3	83%
Ryan Seago	University of Michigan	3.18	2.71	4–11	4.7	−0.47	0.2	83%
Alex Ramos	University of Michigan	3.14	2.67	4–11	4.7	−0.47	0.2	83%
Jake Reynolds	College of Charleston	4.18	3.68	9–6	10.1	−0.51	0.4	86%
Ryan Davidson	College of Charleston	3.83	3.33	9–6	10.1	−0.51	0.4	86%
Nick Johnstone	College of Charleston	3.54	3.03	9–6	10.1	−0.51	0.4	86%
Sean Golden	Georgetown University	3.81	3.22	14–8	16.1	−0.60	0.9	92%
Alex Post	Georgetown University	3.84	3.24	14–8	16.1	−0.60	0.9	92%
Nevin Snow	Georgetown University	4.90	4.30	14–8	16.1	−0.60	0.9	92%
Mateo Vargas	Stanford University	4.06	3.40	9–7	10.9	−0.66	0.9	92%
Jacob Spracher	Old Dominion University	2.81	1.85	4–10	5.4	−0.96	0.9	94%
Esteban Forrer	Old Dominion University	3.89	2.92	4–11	5.5	−0.97	1.0	95%
Daniel Lochner	Old Dominion University	3.11	2.14	4–11	5.5	−0.97	1.0	95%
Ian Stokes	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.29	2.21	3–12	4.3	−1.07	0.9	95%
Stephen Long	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.48	2.40	3–12	4.3	−1.07	0.9	95%
Grant Rickon	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.26	1.19	3–12	4.3	−1.07	0.9	95%
Trey Hartman	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.89	-1.11	0–15	0.3	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%
Jacob Hafemeister	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.42	-1.58	0–15	0.3	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%
Ryan Murphy	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.48	-1.52	0–15	0.3	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%
Andrew Fitzgerald	University of Washington	1.31	-1.69	0–4	0.0	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	89%
1	2	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	86%
1	3	Roger Williams University	University of Washington	100%
1	4	Yale University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of California at Santa Barbara	96%
1	6	Georgetown University	Stanford University	46%	upset
1	7	Tufts University	University of Michigan	92%
1	8	Boston College	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	9	Roger Williams University	College of Charleston	38%	upset
1	10	Yale University	University of South Florida	98%
1	11	Old Dominion University	University of Washington	98%
1	12	U. S. Naval Academy	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	13	Tufts University	University of California at Santa Barbara	93%
1	14	Boston College	Stanford University	32%	upset
1	15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Michigan	95%
1	16	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	17	College of Charleston	University of Washington	100%
1	18	University of South Florida	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
1	19	Old Dominion University	University of California at Santa Barbara	65%
1	20	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	78%
1	21	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	71%
1	22	Georgetown University	Yale University	34%	upset
1	23	College of Charleston	University of Michigan	93%
1	24	University of South Florida	University of Wisconsin	79%
1	25	Tufts University	Old Dominion University	88%
1	26	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	37%	upset
1	27	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Washington	96%
1	28	Stanford University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	29	Roger Williams University	University of Michigan	88%
1	30	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	31	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	60%
1	32	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	96%
1	33	Tufts University	University of Washington	100%
1	34	Boston College	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	35	University of Michigan	Old Dominion University	41%	upset
1	36	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	95%
1	37	Roger Williams University	University of California at Santa Barbara	90%
1	38	Yale University	Stanford University	68%
1	39	Tufts University	College of Charleston	46%	upset
1	40	Boston College	University of South Florida	92%
1	41	University of Michigan	University of Washington	97%
1	42	University of Wisconsin	Texas A&M University at Galveston	96%
1	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	93%
1	44	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	22%	upset
1	45	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	42%	upset
1	46	Yale University	Boston College	80%
1	47	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	94%
1	48	Stanford University	University of South Florida	97%
1	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Washington	100%
1	50	Georgetown University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	51	Roger Williams University	Old Dominion University	84%
1	52	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	88%
1	53	University of Michigan	University of California at Santa Barbara	55%
1	54	University of Wisconsin	Stanford University	1%	upset
1	55	Tufts University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	30%	upset
1	56	Boston College	Georgetown University	35%	upset
1	57	University of South Florida	Old Dominion University	41%	upset
1	58	College of Charleston	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	59	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	51%
1	60	Yale University	University of California at Santa Barbara	98%
1	61	University of Wisconsin	University of Michigan	22%	upset
1	62	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston College	60%
1	63	Tufts University	University of South Florida	91%
1	64	Stanford University	University of Washington	100%
1	65	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	95%
1	66	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	66%
1	67	University of Michigan	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
1	68	Yale University	Roger Williams University	88%
1	69	University of South Florida	University of California at Santa Barbara	69%
1	70	Stanford University	Tufts University	77%
1	71	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	72	Boston College	University of Washington	100%
1	73	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	83%
1	74	Yale University	University of Michigan	98%
1	75	Roger Williams University	University of South Florida	82%
1	76	College of Charleston	Stanford University	27%	upset
1	77	Georgetown University	University of California at Santa Barbara	96%
1	78	University of Wisconsin	University of Washington	90%
1	79	Boston College	Tufts University	54%
1	80	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	81	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Michigan	88%
1	82	Yale University	Old Dominion University	97%
1	83	Roger Williams University	Georgetown University	22%	upset
1	84	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Wisconsin	71%
1	85	Boston College	College of Charleston	50%
1	86	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	57%
1	87	University of Washington	Texas A&M University at Galveston	77%
1	88	University of South Florida	University of Michigan	65%
1	89	Yale University	Tufts University	84%
1	90	U. S. Naval Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	90%
1	91	Old Dominion University	University of Wisconsin	81%
1	92	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Georgetown University	41%	upset
1	93	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	77%
1	94	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	87%
1	95	Tufts University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	96	Yale University	University of Washington	100%
1	97	Boston College	Old Dominion University	89%
1	98	Georgetown University	University of Michigan	96%
1	99	Roger Williams University	University of Wisconsin	95%
1	100	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	91%
1	101	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	97%
1	102	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Washington	99%
1	103	Yale University	College of Charleston	82%
1	104	Tufts University	Georgetown University	28%	upset
1	105	Roger Williams University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	100%
1	106	Boston College	University of Michigan	92%
1	107	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	95%
1	108	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
1	109	Georgetown University	University of Washington	100%
1	110	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	97%
1	111	University of California at Santa Barbara	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
1	112	Roger Williams University	Boston College	38%	upset
1	113	Stanford University	University of Michigan	96%
1	114	U. S. Naval Academy	Tufts University	41%	upset
1	115	University of South Florida	University of Washington	97%
1	116	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
1	117	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	68%
1	118	Old Dominion University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
1	119	Boston College	University of California at Santa Barbara	93%
1	120	Tufts University	University of Wisconsin	97%
2	121	Boston College	Roger Williams University	62%
2	122	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	78%
2	123	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Tufts University	70%
2	124	Yale University	Stanford University	68%
2	125	U. S. Naval Academy	Roger Williams University	50%
2	126	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston College	60%
2	127	Stanford University	Georgetown University	54%
2	128	Yale University	Tufts University	84%
2	129	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	29%	upset
2	130	Stanford University	Roger Williams University	77%
2	131	Boston College	Tufts University	54%
2	132	Yale University	Georgetown University	66%
2	133	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	58%
2	134	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	59%
2	135	Georgetown University	Roger Williams University	78%
2	136	Yale University	Boston College	80%
2	137	Stanford University	Tufts University	77%
2	138	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	59%
2	139	U. S. Naval Academy	Boston College	37%	upset
2	140	Yale University	Roger Williams University	88%
2	141	Georgetown University	Tufts University	72%
2	142	Boston College	Stanford University	32%	upset
2	143	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	71%
2	144	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	88%
2	145	Boston College	Georgetown University	36%	upset
2	146	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	42%	upset
2	147	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	78%
2	148	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
3	149	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Boston College	60%
3	150	Stanford University	Yale University	32%	upset
3	151	Stanford University	Boston College	68%
3	152	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Yale University	25%	upset
3	153	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stanford University	43%	upset
3	154	Yale University	Boston College	80%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Seahawks	Cardinal	Eagles	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Hawks	Jumbos	Cougars	Bulls	Monarchs	Badgers	Wolverines	Gauchos	Huskies	Aggies
Yale University Bulldogs	14–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	12–3	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	10–5	L	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	11–4	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	10–5	W	L	W	L	✕	L	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	11–4	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	11–4	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	10–5	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	9–6	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	6–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	4–11	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	4–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3–12	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
University of Washington Huskies	1–14	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	0–15	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Seahawks	Cardinal	Eagles	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Hawks	Jumbos
Yale University Bulldogs	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–4	L	✕	L	W	L	L	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	5–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–3	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	W	L	W	L	✕	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Seahawks	Cardinal	Eagles
Yale University Bulldogs	1–2	✕	L	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–0	W	✕	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	2–1	W	L	✕	W
Boston College Eagles	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
2	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
3	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
4	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
5	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
6	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Cardinal	3-5-6
7	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Wolverines	2-3-6
8	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
9	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
10	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
11	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
12	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
13	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
14	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
15	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
16	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
17	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
18	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
19	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Gauchos	2-4-6
20	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
21	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
22	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
23	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
24	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
25	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
26	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
27	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
28	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
29	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
30	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
31	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
32	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
33	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
34	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
35	Wolverines	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
36	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
37	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
38	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
39	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
40	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
41	Wolverines	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
42	Badgers	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
43	Seahawks	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
44	Midshipmen	3-4-5	def.	Hoyas	1-2-6 DSQ
45	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
46	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
47	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Gauchos	2-5-6
48	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
49	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
50	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
51	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
52	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
53	Wolverines	1-3-4	def.	Gauchos	2-5-6
54	Badgers	1-3-5	def.	Cardinal	2-4-6
55	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
56	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
57	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
58	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
59	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
60	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
61	Badgers	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
62	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
63	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
64	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
65	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
66	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
67	Wolverines	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
68	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
69	Bulls	3-4-5	def.	Gauchos	1-2-6 DSQ
70	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
71	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
72	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
73	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
74	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
75	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
76	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
77	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
78	Badgers	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
79	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
80	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
81	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Wolverines	2-4-6
82	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
83	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
84	Gauchos	1-3-6	def.	Badgers	2-4-5
85	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
86	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
87	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
88	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
89	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
90	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
91	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
92	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
93	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
94	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
95	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
96	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
97	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
98	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
99	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Badgers	1-5-6
100	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
101	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
102	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
103	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
104	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
105	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
106	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
107	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
108	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
109	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
110	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
111	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Aggies	3-5-6
112	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
113	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
114	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
115	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
116	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
117	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
118	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
119	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
120	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
121	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
122	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
123	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
124	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
125	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
126	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
127	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
128	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
129	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
130	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
131	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
132	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
133	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
134	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6 DSQ
135	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
136	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6 DNF
137	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
138	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
139	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
140	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
141	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
142	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
143	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Hawks	1-4-6
144	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
145	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
146	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
147	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
148	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
149	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
150	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
151	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
152	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
153	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
154	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Christopher Segerblom '14 Graham Landy '15 Ian Barrows '17	Charlotte Belling '16 Marlena Fauer '14 Katherine Gaumond '15 Eugenia Custo Greig '14 Amanda Salvesen '14
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Fletcher Sims '14 John Wallace '14 Joshua Greenslade '14	Kelley Merryman '14 Allison Shane '15 Nicole Deangeli '14
Stanford University	Cardinal	Antoine Screve '16 Hans Henken '15 Kevin Laube '14 Kieran Chung '15 Mateo Vargas '14 Oliver Toole '14	Helena Scutt '14 Mary Vangelos '17 Yuri Namikawa '14 Haley Kirk '15 Tally Buckstaff '14 Carolyn Ortel '14
Boston College	Eagles	Erika Reineke '17 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Elizabeth Barnard '15 Shelby Hamilton '14 Katherine Wysocki '15
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Alex Post '15 Nevin Snow '16 Sean Golden '16	Bettina Redway '16 Katie Olsen '15 Amanda Taselaar '14 Katia Dasilva '15 Isabelle Ruiz De Luzuriaga '16 Eliana Michaels '14
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Mary Hall '15 Michael Grove '14 Michael Popp '16 Patrick Snow '17	Patrick Snow '17 Elizabeth Morrison '14 Aaron Hull '16 Emma Ferris '15 Alexandra Asuncion '15 Chelsea Smith '14 Connor Hendi '15
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Corgard '16 Henry Vogel '15 William Macdonald '15	Abby Preston '15 Wendy Reuss '15 Breanne Baldino '16 James Kennedy '17
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 David Liebenberg '14 William Haeger '14	Sam Madden '15 Alexander Tong '17 Kathleen Kwasniak '14 Paula Grasberger '14
College of Charleston	Cougars	Jake Reynolds '16 Nick Johnstone '15 Ryan Davidson '16	Alicia Blumenthal '15 Rebekah Schiff '16 Septima Mcadams '16 Emily Stuart '16 Roy Shaw '14
University of South Florida	Bulls	Aj Degen '16 Christopher Stocke '15 Connor Brady '15 Fernando Monllor '16	Paul Perry '15 Rebecca Campbell '16 Ali Yarbrough '16 Kristen Walker '17
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Daniel Lochner '15 Esteban Forrer '16 Jacob Spracher '15 Joseph David '16	Colin Voigt '15 Julia Wiesner '14 Gabriel Smith '17 Chloe Constants '14 Katelyn Talley '16
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	George Kutschenreuter '15 John Kinzel '14 Michael Lee '14	Jennifer Burke '16 Charles Bocklet '18 Elliot Busta '15 Erin Monahan '14 Caya Mcfalls '16 Katrina Debbink '15 Kelsea Kierstead '15
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Alex Ramos '15 Ryan Seago '14 Will Cyr '14	Scott Ismail '14 Elizabeth Wallace '15 Karinne Smolenyak '15
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Grant Rickon '16 Ian Stokes '16 Stephen Long '17	Ginger Luckey '16 Kristina Miller '17 Natalie Davidson '16
University of Washington	Huskies	Andrew Fitzgerald '16 Kate Flanagan '17 Kris Thompson '16 Lily Grimshaw '15	Melissa Hickenbottom '16 Andrew Fitzgerald '16 Molly Utter '14 Sarah Redmond '15
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	Jacob Hafemeister '16 Ryan Murphy '15 Trey Hartman '15	Kayla Sjoberg '14 Brittney Crawford '15 Rachel Mcmahon '15

Conditions — 05/31/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1021.8 hPa

Temperature

69°F

↑ 71°F ↓ 65°F

Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.4 kn

avg · max 8.9 kn

Gusts to 16.5 kn

From NNE (14°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover21% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1021.8 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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