Stanford University '14
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 20.04 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.083 rating points from 238 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.46 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 37–19 (66%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 3 | — | 22–6 |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | — | 15–13 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 21–6 against 19.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-05-03 | 2014 Carter Ford Team Race | crew | 3.82 | 6.82 | 6–0 | 5.9 | ≥+3.00 | 0.1 | 92% |
| 2014-03-01 | Bob Bavier Team Race | crew | 3.97 | 4.44 | 15–6 | 13.2 | +0.47 | 0.6 | 26% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Crew | B | 11 | 4.6 | — |
| PCCSC Coed Championship | Crew | A, B | 4 | 1.8 | — |
| North 2 | Crew | A | 4 | 4.8 | — |
| North 1 | Crew | A | 5 | 1.8 | — |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-East | Crew | B | 2 | 9.0 | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Crew | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Crew | TR | 25 | 68% | — |
| 2014 Carter Ford Team Race | Crew | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Finals Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 9.5 | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Crew | TR | 16 | 69% | — |
| Navy Spring Womens Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 14.5 | — |
| Joseph Duplin Trophy Women's | Crew | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Crew | B | 10 | 3.9 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 4.0 | — |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Crew | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Fall | Crew | B | 14 | 5.3 | — |
| JV Fall PCC's | Crew | A | 6 | 3.8 | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Crew | A | 9 | 9.2 | — |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| USF Women's Intersectional Women's | Crew | A | 16 | 4.6 | — |
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Finals Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 10.9 | — |
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 1.4 | — |
| Navy Women's Women's | Crew | A | 20 | 6.4 | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 17 | 5.5 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Regatta Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 7.2 | — |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 5.9 | — |
| Stoney Burke | Crew | A, B | 9 | 9.2 | — |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 5.7 | — |
| Bryson Women's Women's | Crew | A | 15 | 1.5 | — |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's College Women's Intersec Women's | Crew | A | 1 | 12.0 | — |
| St. Francis Intersectional | Crew | A | 8 | 10.8 | — |
| ICSA/Gill Co-ed National Championship | Crew | A | 3 | 15.3 | — |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 11.1 | — |
| St. Mary's Fall | Crew | A, B | 8 | 13.0 | — |
| The Moody Trophy | Crew | B | 11 | 14.5 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
