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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 4 14 6 20
2 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 4 17 21
3 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 19 8 27
4 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 13 20 33
5 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 20 14 34
6 Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 35 22 57
7 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 36 30 66
8 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 38 39 77
9 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 34 48 82
10 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 46 38 84
11 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 51 38 89
12 California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 36 53 89
13 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 41 49 90
14 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 36 62 98
15 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 63 53 116
16 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 65 56 121
17 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 61 61 122
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 1 1 1 1 4 Kieran Chung '15
Haley Kirk '15
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 3 3 2 5 13 Stephen Long '17
Kristina Miller '17
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 4 5 2 3 4 14 Mateo Vargas '14
Tally Buckstaff '14
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 4 5 4 6 19 Antoine Screve '16
Helena Scutt '14
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 2 4 11 3 20 Oliver Toole '14
Carolyn Ortel '14
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 6 10 10 8 34 Stephen Katz '16
Cassidy Patton '17
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 8 6 8 13 35 Francesca Cappellini '16
Courtney Newell '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 10 9 7 10 36 Cobi Allen '16
Gregory Coumes '17
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 12 11 6 7 36 Mark Hurdle '13
Olivia Gibbons '17
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 15 14 5 2 36 John Hill '13
Anna Rubino '16
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 7 8 9 14 38 Travis Benton '14
Ethan Pawson '14
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 13 7 12 9 41 David Cornella '17
Kathryn Cornella '16
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 9 12 14 11 46 Ian Spilman '15
Emma Shaw '14
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 11 13 15 12 51 Daniel Baldassare '15
Mackenzie Perkins '17
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 16 15 13 17 61 John Coakley '16
Tianyue Huang '16
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 14 17 16 16 63 Christopher Keefe '14
Ghanim Hableel '17
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 17 16 17 15 65 Desmond Krueger '14
Alex Yeghiazarian '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 4 1 1 2 2 6 Kevin Laube '14
Yuri Namikawa '14
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 2 3 3 1 1 8 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17
Cally Tullo '17
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 4 2 4 4 14 Hans Henken '15
Mary Vangelos '17
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 2 7 5 3 17 Axel Sly '16
John Cannistraro '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 7 4 3 6 20 Keenan Chung '18
Madisson Thomas '17
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Broncos 5 6 6 5 22 Dylan Ale '15
Alexandra Cotroneo '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2 6 8 7 9 30 Joseph Schiff '17
Natalie Davidson '16
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 1 8 10 8 12 38 Lucas Murray '15
Natasha Jarett '14
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's 10 5 13 10 38 Alex Verdoia '15
Altea Hines '16
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Golden Bears 11 11 9 8 39 Joshua Goldberg '14
Lauren Rehbein '16
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 12 14 11 11 48 William Antrobus '15
Elisabeth Mckee '17
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang 9 12 12 16 49 Greg Kushnir '18
Justin Mcalister '17
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Otters 14 9 15 15 53 Parker Smith '17
Levi Matsushima '17
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons DNS DNS 10 7 53 Jiachao Yang '15 [1-4]
Mark Jones '15 [1-2]
Samuel Rohrbach '17 [3-4]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 2 13 15 14 14 56 Ryan Wilkerson '14
Ishita Singh '17
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 15 13 16 17 61 No Show
David Sadakane '16
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 16 16 17 13 62 Sunny Scarbrough '17
Sarah Costa '15
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Golden Bears1133
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers2244
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang6688
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers3355
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters4466
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos5577
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans171722
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 17799
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 2881010
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 3991111
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 410101212
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 111111313
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 213131515
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons161611
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 112121414
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 215151717
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's14141616

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Golden Bears2244
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers3355
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustang7799
California State University Long BeachCalifornia State University Long Beach 49ers4466
California State University Monterey BayCalifornia State University Monterey Bay Otters5577
Santa Clara UniversitySanta Clara University Broncos6688
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1133
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 1881010
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 2991111
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 310101212
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal 411111313
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 112121414
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies 214141616
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons171722
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 113131515
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2161611
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slug's15151717
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. David Cornella '17 Kathryn Cornella '16
Mustang Greg Kushnir '18 Justin Mcalister '17
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Stephen Katz '16 Cassidy Patton '17
Keelhaulers William Antrobus '15 Elisabeth Mckee '17
California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach John Hill '13 Anna Rubino '16
49ers Sunny Scarbrough '17 Sarah Costa '15
California State University Monterey Bay California State University Monterey Bay Mark Hurdle '13 Olivia Gibbons '17
Otters Parker Smith '17 Levi Matsushima '17
Santa Clara University Santa Clara University Francesca Cappellini '16 Courtney Newell '17
Broncos Dylan Ale '15 Alexandra Cotroneo '17
Stanford University Stanford University Oliver Toole '14 Carolyn Ortel '14
Cardinal 1 Hans Henken '15 Mary Vangelos '17
Stanford University Stanford University Antoine Screve '16 Helena Scutt '14
Cardinal 2 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17 Cally Tullo '17
Stanford University Stanford University Kieran Chung '15 Haley Kirk '15
Cardinal 3 Axel Sly '16 John Cannistraro '17
Stanford University Stanford University Mateo Vargas '14 Tally Buckstaff '14
Cardinal 4 Kevin Laube '14 Yuri Namikawa '14
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Travis Benton '14 Ethan Pawson '14
Golden Bears Joshua Goldberg '14 Lauren Rehbein '16
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Daniel Baldassare '15 Mackenzie Perkins '17
Aggies 1 Lucas Murray '15 Natasha Jarett '14
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Desmond Krueger '14 Alex Yeghiazarian '16
Aggies 2 Ryan Wilkerson '14 Ishita Singh '17
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Christopher Keefe '14 Ghanim Hableel '17
Tritons Jiachao Yang '15 [1-4] Mark Jones '15 [1-2]
Samuel Rohrbach '17 [3-4]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Stephen Long '17 Kristina Miller '17
Gauchos 1 Keenan Chung '18 Madisson Thomas '17
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Cobi Allen '16 Gregory Coumes '17
Gauchos 2 Joseph Schiff '17 Natalie Davidson '16
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Ian Spilman '15 Emma Shaw '14
Banana Slug's Alex Verdoia '15 Altea Hines '16
University of Southern California University of Southern California John Coakley '16 Tianyue Huang '16
Trojans No Show David Sadakane '16

Conditions — 02/09/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 94%  ·  Pressure 1020.4 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 55°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 22.5 kn
From SSW (209°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.3 hrs Humidity94% Pressure1020.4 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.28 ± 0.12)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →