Stanford University '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.77 (fleet 3.82) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 79–53 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 5 | 40–25 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 25–10 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 2 | 14–18 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (132 matches) the record is 79–53 against 86.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−7.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 10 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | skipper | 3.63 | 3.10 | 13–9 | 14.9 | −0.53 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2016-04-24 | PCCSC Team Race Championship Carter Ford Trophy | skipper | 3.65 | 6.65 | 5–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 96% |
| 2016-04-02 | The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | skipper | 3.46 | 3.07 | 6–7 | 7.1 | −0.39 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2016-03-05 | Bob Bavier Team Race | skipper | 3.52 | 3.29 | 7–9 | 7.8 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2016-02-27 | 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 3.54 | 6.54 | 9–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.7 | 14% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.42 | 3.28 | 11–4 | 11.4 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 2015-03-28 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.25 | 3.28 | 6–6 | 5.9 | +0.03 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2015-02-28 | 2015 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 3.48 | 6.48 | 8–0 | 7.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 59% |
| 2014-03-08 | John Jackson Team Race Regatta | skipper | 3.24 | 2.84 | 7–7 | 7.9 | −0.40 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 2014-02-22 | Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | skipper | 3.04 | 1.67 | 7–11 | 11.7 | −1.37 | 4.7 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Team Race Championship Carter Ford Trophy | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| PCCSC Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.9 | 4.03 |
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.9 | 3.83 |
| The 35th Lynne Marchiando Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 46% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 22 | 59% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.5 | 4.96 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 62% | — |
| 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 12.4 | 2.38 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.3 | 3.97 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.7 | 3.99 |
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 50% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | B | 5 | 6.6 | 3.51 |
| Cardinal | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.5 | 4.61 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| 2015 PCCSC Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.8 | 4.77 |
| 2015 McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.8 | 3.46 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.8 | 3.97 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.1 | 4.07 |
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.7 | 4.23 |
| Pacific Coast Champs - 2 Div | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.8 | 3.97 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | C | 3 | 4.7 | 3.93 |
| North 2 | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 3.15 |
| North 1 | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.8 | 4.22 |
| John Jackson Team Race Regatta | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| Frank Mendelblatt Team Race | Skipper | TR | 30 | 60% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.4 | 3.33 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 15.0 | 1.87 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.5 | 2.76 |
| JV Fall PCC's | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.5 | 2.32 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.3 | 3.05 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
