| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Stanford University | Cardinal 1 | 8–0 |
| 2 | |
Stanford University | Cardinal 2 | 7–1 |
| 3 |  |
University of California at Santa Barbara | Gauchos | 5–3 |
| 4 |  |
California Maritime Academy | Keelhaulers | 5–3 |
| 5 |  |
University of Hawaii | Rainbows | 4–4 |
| 6 |  |
University of Southern California | Trojans | 3–5 |
| 7 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 3–5 |
| 8 |  |
University of California at Irvine | Anteaters | 1–7 |
| 9 |  |
Northwestern University | Wildcats | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,181 team race matches sailed before 2015-02-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 30 of 36 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.355 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.05 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 48% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanford University Cardinal 1 | 11.09 | 14.09 | 8–0 | 7.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.7 | 59% |
| 2 | Stanford University Cardinal 2 | 9.39 | 10.93 | 7–1 | 5.7 | +1.54 | 1.3 | 23% |
| 4 | California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers | 8.22 | 8.96 | 5–3 | 4.1 | +0.74 | 0.5 | 36% |
| 6 | University of Southern California Trojans | 6.93 | 7.57 | 3–5 | 2.4 | +0.64 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 3 | University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos | 8.37 | 8.95 | 5–3 | 4.3 | +0.57 | 0.3 | 43% |
| 8 | University of California at Irvine Anteaters | 5.09 | 5.62 | 1–7 | 0.7 | +0.53 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 5 | University of Hawaii Rainbows | 8.35 | 8.13 | 4–4 | 4.3 | −0.22 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 7 | Old Dominion University Monarchs | 9.54 | 7.04 | 3–5 | 5.9 | −2.51 | 5.4 | >99% |
| 9 | Northwestern University Wildcats | 5.61 | 2.61 | 0–8 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 1 | 2 | Gauchos | Keelhaulers | Rainbows | Trojans | Monarchs | Anteaters | Wildcats | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanford University Cardinal 1 | 15–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Stanford University Cardinal 2 | 15–1 | ✕ | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos | 5–3 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | L | W | W |
| California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers | 5–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| University of Hawaii Rainbows | 4–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of Southern California Trojans | 3–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 3–5 | L | L | W | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of California at Irvine Anteaters | 1–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Northwestern University Wildcats | 0–8 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Keelhaulers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Anteaters | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cardinal 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinal 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Gauchos | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rainbows | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Keelhaulers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Anteaters | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cardinal 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Gauchos | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Cardinal 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Keelhaulers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Anteaters | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Cardinal 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rainbows | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Gauchos | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Cardinal 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Keelhaulers | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Cardinal 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Trojans | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Rainbows | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Anteaters | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Cardinal 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Keelhaulers | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Rainbows | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Trojans | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Gauchos | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Anteaters | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Gauchos | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Keelhaulers | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Rainbows | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Cardinal 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trojans | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Cardinal 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Anteaters | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Keelhaulers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rainbows | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Gauchos | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Cardinal 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Monarchs | 2-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Trojans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Anteaters | 2-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Keelhaulers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-5 |
| 30 | |
Cardinal 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rainbows | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Gauchos | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Cardinal 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Cardinal 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Monarchs | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Cardinal 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Gauchos | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Rainbows | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 1-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Cardinal 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Anteaters | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
