Stanford University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.89 (fleet 3.98) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 40–3 (93%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 7–2 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 25–1 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 8–0 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (43 matches) the record is 40–3 against 35.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-02-27 | 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 3.69 | 2.55 | 7–2 | 7.9 | −1.14 | 0.7 | 95% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | skipper | 3.37 | 6.37 | 18–0 | 14.6 | ≥+3.00 | 5.4 | 2% |
| 2015-02-28 | 2015 McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 3.11 | 4.64 | 7–1 | 5.7 | +1.54 | 1.3 | 23% |
| 2014-03-01 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.87 | 5.87 | 8–0 | 7.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 70% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 1.4 | 5.00 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.0 | 3.78 |
| 2016 Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.3 | 3.81 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 6.1 | 3.88 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.3 | 4.18 |
| Duplin Women's | Skipper | TR | 18 | 100% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.3 | 3.25 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.0 | 3.88 |
| Sperry ICSA Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.0 | 3.63 |
| 2015 McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 88% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.6 | 3.47 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.3 | 4.17 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 3.8 | 3.93 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.6 | 3.41 |
| Pacific Coast Champs - 2 Div | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.3 | 4.17 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.8 | 2.68 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Crew | B | 5 | 6.0 | — |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 100% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.1 | 2.29 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.6 | 1.71 |
| Bryson | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.5 | 3.14 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.4 | 3.33 |
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.1 | 2.94 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.0 | 2.73 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
