McIntyre Team Race

HostStanford
Date03/01/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	18–0
2	University of Washington	Huskies	14–4
3	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	14–4
4	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	13–5
5	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	10–8
6	Western Washington University	Vikings	6–12
7	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	5–13
8	Northwestern University	Wildcats	5–13
9	University of California at San Diego	Tritons	3–15
10	University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	2–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,991 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 71 of 90 matches (79%) with a log-loss of 0.458 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.68 ± 0.20: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 6% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	10.22 home +0.31	Kevin Laube / Yuri Namikawa 4.24 10–0 Scott Buckstaff / Katie Walker 10–0 Holly Tullo / John Cannistraro 10–0 Lily Katz / Mckenzie Wilson 8–0 Oliver Toole / Nicolette Obel 3.90 8–0 Yuki Yoshiyasu / Daniel Ron 2.81 8–0	90%	18–0 (100%)	+1.8
2	University of Washington Huskies	5	7.77	Kris Thompson / Molly Utter 2.51 Karl Haelsig / Sarah Redmond 3.24 Sam Parish / Cory Baranski	61%	14–4 (78%)	+3.0
3	University of Hawaii Rainbows	2	9.97 school +0.31	Adam Pokras / Ana-Melissa Kea 3.74 Madeline Kennedy / Kellie Yamada 3.09 Chuck Eaton / Katrina Berry 12–4 Giacomo Paoletti / Katrina Berry 2.25 2–0	87%	14–4 (78%)	−1.7
4	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3	8.91 school −0.07	Ian Stokes / Natalie Davidson 3.38 Stephen Long / Kristina Miller 12–4 Keenan Chung / Ginger Luckey 9–5 Grant Rickon / Ginger Luckey 4–0 Grant Rickon / Kristina Miller 1–1	75%	13–5 (72%)	−0.5
5	Old Dominion University Monarchs	4	8.44 school −0.24	Lee Dumaliang / Colin Voigt 2.52 Andrea Luna / Chloe Constants Jacob Spracher / Cady Johnson 2.75	69%	10–8 (56%)	−2.5
6	Western Washington University Vikings	10	2.54 school +0.51	Jake Fetterman / Rachael Mccrady 1.38 Alexander Martin / Benjamin Kaas Gabe Hill / Anna Pieri	6%	6–12 (33%)	+4.9
7	Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	6	5.80 school +0.27	Michael Sager / Sara Stafford 2.17 Trey Hartman / Rachel Mcmahon Jacob Hafemeister / Ryan Murphy 2–8 Ryan Murphy / Kayla Sonnier 3–5	40%	5–13 (28%)	−2.2
8	Northwestern University Wildcats	9	3.47	Jacob Bruce / Allison Park 1.00 Travis Cottle / Hannah Goblirsch 1.30 Robert Johnston / Bill White 0.65 4–12 Robert Johnston / Hangyeol Lee 0.65 1–1	14%	5–13 (28%)	+2.4
9	University of California at San Diego Tritons	8	4.35	John Olson / Elsa Felgar 1.64 Nicolas Delfino / Cheyenne Wright 1.71 Joseph Mcardle / Rosalie Winnik	24%	3–15 (17%)	−1.4
10	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	7	5.10 school +0.60	Samuel Heller / Kathryn Benight 1.58 Nicholas Weis / Deanne Buckman 1.44 Kate Andersen / Mahmoud Sherif	33%	2–16 (11%)	−3.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
6	Western Washington University	2.54	5.68	6–12	1.1	+3.14	12.4	<1%
1	Stanford University	10.22	13.22	18–0	16.2	≥+3.00	2.9	12%
2	University of Washington	7.77	9.51	14–4	11.0	+1.73	3.9	2%
8	Northwestern University	3.47	5.02	5–13	2.6	+1.55	2.8	5%
4	University of California at Santa Barbara	8.91	8.63	13–5	13.5	−0.28	0.1	78%
9	University of California at San Diego	4.35	3.44	3–15	4.4	−0.91	0.9	94%
3	University of Hawaii	9.97	8.95	14–4	15.7	−1.02	1.3	96%
7	Texas A&M University at Galveston	5.80	4.47	5–13	7.2	−1.33	2.2	98%
5	Old Dominion University	8.44	6.89	10–8	12.5	−1.54	2.7	99%
10	University of California at Irvine	5.10	2.60	2–16	5.9	−2.50	6.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Jake Fetterman	Western Washington University	1.38	4.52	6–12	1.1	+3.14	12.4	<1%
Alexander Martin	Western Washington University	-1.18	1.96	6–12	1.1	+3.14	12.4	<1%
Gabe Hill	Western Washington University	1.32	4.45	6–12	1.1	+3.14	12.4	<1%
Kevin Laube	Stanford University	4.24	7.24	10–0	8.6	≥+3.00	2.4	17%
Scott Buckstaff	Stanford University	2.50	5.50	10–0	8.6	≥+3.00	2.4	17%
Holly Tullo	Stanford University	2.83	5.83	10–0	8.6	≥+3.00	2.4	17%
Lily Katz	Stanford University	2.87	5.87	8–0	7.7	≥+3.00	0.5	70%
Oliver Toole	Stanford University	3.90	6.89	8–0	7.7	≥+3.00	0.5	70%
Yuki Yoshiyasu	Stanford University	2.81	5.81	8–0	7.7	≥+3.00	0.5	70%
Kris Thompson	University of Washington	2.51	4.25	14–4	11.0	+1.73	3.9	2%
Sam Parish	University of Washington	1.72	3.45	14–4	11.0	+1.73	3.9	2%
Jacob Bruce	Northwestern University	1.00	2.54	5–13	2.6	+1.55	2.8	5%
Travis Cottle	Northwestern University	1.30	2.85	5–13	2.6	+1.55	2.8	5%
Robert Johnston	Northwestern University	0.65	2.20	5–13	2.6	+1.55	2.8	5%
Stephen Long	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.32	3.48	12–4	11.7	+0.16	0.0	58%
Ryan Murphy	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.02	0.90	3–5	3.1	−0.12	0.0	73%
Ian Stokes	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.38	3.10	13–5	13.5	−0.28	0.1	78%
Keenan Chung	University of California at Santa Barbara	1.99	1.68	9–5	9.6	−0.31	0.1	79%
John Olson	University of California at San Diego	1.64	0.73	3–15	4.4	−0.91	0.9	94%
Nicolas Delfino	University of California at San Diego	1.71	0.81	3–15	4.4	−0.91	0.9	94%
Joseph Mcardle	University of California at San Diego	0.35	-0.56	3–15	4.4	−0.91	0.9	94%
Adam Pokras	University of Hawaii	3.74	2.72	14–4	15.7	−1.02	1.3	96%
Madeline Kennedy	University of Hawaii	3.09	2.07	14–4	15.7	−1.02	1.3	96%
Chuck Eaton	University of Hawaii	2.59	1.56	12–4	13.7	−1.04	1.3	96%
Michael Sager	Texas A&M University at Galveston	2.17	0.84	5–13	7.2	−1.33	2.2	98%
Trey Hartman	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.95	0.62	5–13	7.2	−1.33	2.2	98%
Lee Dumaliang	Old Dominion University	2.52	0.97	10–8	12.5	−1.54	2.7	99%
Andrea Luna	Old Dominion University	3.27	1.73	10–8	12.5	−1.54	2.7	99%
Jacob Spracher	Old Dominion University	2.75	1.21	10–8	12.5	−1.54	2.7	99%
Grant Rickon	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.23	0.58	5–1	5.7	−1.65	1.0	98%
Samuel Heller	University of California at Irvine	1.58	-0.92	2–16	5.9	−2.50	6.8	>99%
Nicholas Weis	University of California at Irvine	1.44	-1.06	2–16	5.9	−2.50	6.8	>99%
Kate Andersen	University of California at Irvine	0.84	-1.66	2–16	5.9	−2.50	6.8	>99%
Jacob Hafemeister	Texas A&M University at Galveston	1.33	-1.58	2–8	4.1	−2.91	5.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of Hawaii	Old Dominion University	81%
1	2	University of California at San Diego	Northwestern University	66%
1	3	Western Washington University	University of California at Irvine	8%	upset
1	4	University of Washington	University of California at Santa Barbara	24%	upset
1	5	Stanford University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
1	6	Old Dominion University	University of California at San Diego	99%
1	7	Northwestern University	University of California at Irvine	17%	upset
1	8	University of California at Santa Barbara	Western Washington University	100%
1	9	University of Washington	Texas A&M University at Galveston	86%
1	10	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	57%
1	11	Old Dominion University	University of California at Irvine	97%
1	12	University of California at Santa Barbara	Northwestern University	100%
1	13	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Western Washington University	97%
1	14	Stanford University	University of Washington	93%
1	15	University of Hawaii	University of California at San Diego	100%
1	16	Old Dominion University	Northwestern University	99%
1	17	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Irvine	98%
1	18	University of Washington	Western Washington University	100%
1	19	Stanford University	University of California at San Diego	100%
1	20	University of Hawaii	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
1	21	University of California at Santa Barbara	Old Dominion University	63%
1	22	Northwestern University	Western Washington University	72%
1	23	University of Washington	University of California at Irvine	94%
1	24	Texas A&M University at Galveston	University of California at San Diego	78%
1	25	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	80%
1	26	University of Hawaii	Northwestern University	100%
1	27	Old Dominion University	Western Washington University	100%
1	28	University of California at San Diego	University of California at Irvine	32%	upset
1	29	University of California at Santa Barbara	Texas A&M University at Galveston	88%
1	30	University of Washington	Northwestern University	99%
1	31	Stanford University	Western Washington University	100%
1	32	University of Hawaii	University of California at Irvine	99%
1	33	Old Dominion University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	94%
1	34	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at San Diego	99%
1	35	Stanford University	Northwestern University	100%
1	36	University of Hawaii	Western Washington University	100%
1	37	University of California at Irvine	Texas A&M University at Galveston	37%	upset
1	38	University of Washington	University of California at San Diego	97%
1	39	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	84%
1	40	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	28%	upset
1	41	Northwestern University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	8%	upset
1	42	University of Washington	Old Dominion University	34%	upset
1	43	Western Washington University	University of California at San Diego	14%	upset
1	44	Stanford University	University of California at Irvine	99%
1	45	University of Washington	University of Hawaii	10%	upset
2	46	University of Hawaii	Old Dominion University	83%
2	47	Northwestern University	University of California at San Diego	26%	upset
2	48	Western Washington University	University of California at Irvine	7%	upset
2	49	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Washington	78%
2	50	Stanford University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	99%
2	51	Old Dominion University	University of California at San Diego	98%
2	52	Northwestern University	University of California at Irvine	16%	upset
2	53	University of California at Santa Barbara	Western Washington University	100%
2	54	University of Washington	Texas A&M University at Galveston	87%
2	55	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	58%
2	56	Old Dominion University	University of California at Irvine	96%
2	57	University of California at Santa Barbara	Northwestern University	100%
2	58	Western Washington University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	4%	upset
2	59	Stanford University	University of Washington	93%
2	60	University of Hawaii	University of California at San Diego	99%
2	61	Old Dominion University	Northwestern University	99%
2	62	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Irvine	98%
2	63	University of Washington	Western Washington University	99%
2	64	Stanford University	University of California at San Diego	100%
2	65	University of Hawaii	Texas A&M University at Galveston	98%
2	66	University of California at Santa Barbara	Old Dominion University	66%
2	67	Western Washington University	Northwestern University	28%	upset
2	68	University of Washington	University of California at Irvine	93%
2	69	University of California at San Diego	Texas A&M University at Galveston	24%	upset
2	70	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	79%
2	71	University of Hawaii	Northwestern University	100%
2	72	Old Dominion University	Western Washington University	100%
2	73	University of California at Irvine	University of California at San Diego	68%
2	74	Texas A&M University at Galveston	University of California at Santa Barbara	12%	upset
2	75	University of Washington	Northwestern University	99%
2	76	Stanford University	Western Washington University	100%
2	77	University of Hawaii	University of California at Irvine	99%
2	78	Old Dominion University	Texas A&M University at Galveston	94%
2	79	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at San Diego	99%
2	80	Stanford University	Northwestern University	100%
2	81	University of Hawaii	Western Washington University	100%
2	82	Texas A&M University at Galveston	University of California at Irvine	61%
2	83	University of Washington	University of California at San Diego	96%
2	84	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	84%
2	85	University of Hawaii	University of California at Santa Barbara	71%
2	86	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Northwestern University	91%
2	87	University of Washington	Old Dominion University	35%	upset
2	88	Western Washington University	University of California at San Diego	13%	upset
2	89	Stanford University	University of California at Irvine	99%
2	90	University of Hawaii	University of Washington	90%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Huskies	Rainbows	Gauchos	Monarchs	Vikings	Aggies	Wildcats	Tritons	Anteaters
Stanford University Cardinal	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Washington Huskies	8–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	6–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	7–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	5–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Western Washington University Vikings	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	L
Northwestern University Wildcats	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W
University of California at San Diego Tritons	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Huskies	Rainbows	Gauchos	Monarchs	Vikings	Aggies	Wildcats	Tritons	Anteaters
Stanford University Cardinal	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Washington Huskies	6–3	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	8–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	6–3	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	5–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Western Washington University Vikings	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies	3–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Northwestern University Wildcats	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of California at San Diego Tritons	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
2	Tritons	1-3-6	def.	Wildcats	2-4-5
3	Vikings	1-2-4	def.	Anteaters	3-5-6
4	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
5	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
6	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
7	Wildcats	1-4-5	def.	Anteaters	2-3-6
8	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Vikings	3-5-6
9	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
10	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Rainbows	3-4-5
11	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Anteaters	3-5-6
12	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
13	Aggies	1-2-5	def.	Vikings	3-4-6
14	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Huskies	2-4-6
15	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
16	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
17	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Anteaters	3-4-6
18	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Vikings	4-5-6
19	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
20	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
21	Gauchos	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
22	Wildcats	1-4-5	def.	Vikings	2-3-6 DNF
23	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Anteaters	3-4-6
24	Aggies	1-3-4	def.	Tritons	2-5-6
25	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
26	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
27	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Vikings	4-5-6
28	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Anteaters	3-4-5
29	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
30	Huskies	1-3-4	def.	Wildcats	2-5-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Vikings	4-5-6
32	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Anteaters	4-5-6
33	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Aggies	4-5-6
34	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
35	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
36	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Vikings	4-5-6
37	Anteaters	2-3-4	def.	Aggies	1-5-6
38	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
39	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
40	Gauchos	1-3-5	def.	Rainbows	2-4-6
41	Wildcats	1-3-5	def.	Aggies	2-4-6
42	Huskies	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
43	Vikings	1-3-5	def.	Tritons	2-4-6
44	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Anteaters	4-5-6
45	Huskies	1-4-5	def.	Rainbows	2-3-6
46	Rainbows	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
47	Wildcats	1-4-5	def.	Tritons	2-3-6
48	Vikings	1-3-5	def.	Anteaters	2-4-6
49	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
50	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
51	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
52	Wildcats	1-4-5	def.	Anteaters	2-3-6
53	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
54	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Aggies	3-4-6
55	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
56	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Anteaters	4-5-6
57	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
58	Vikings	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
59	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
60	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
61	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
62	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Anteaters	4-5-6
63	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
64	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
65	Rainbows	1-3-5	def.	Aggies	2-4-6
66	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
67	Vikings	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
68	Huskies	1-3-5	def.	Anteaters	2-4-6
69	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Aggies	3-4-5
70	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
71	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
72	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Vikings	4-5-6
73	Anteaters	1-3-5	def.	Tritons	2-4-6
74	Aggies	1-3-5	def.	Gauchos	2-4-6
75	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
76	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Vikings	3-4-6
77	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Anteaters	3-4-5
78	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Aggies	1-5-6
79	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
80	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
81	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Vikings	4-5-6
82	Aggies	1-2-3	def.	Anteaters	4-5-6
83	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
84	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
85	Rainbows	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
86	Aggies	1-3-6	def.	Wildcats	2-4-5
87	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
88	Vikings	1-4-5	def.	Tritons	2-3-6
89	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Anteaters	3-4-6
90	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Holly Tullo '17 Kevin Laube '14 Lily Katz '17 Oliver Toole '14 Scott Buckstaff '17 Yuki Yoshiyasu '16	John Cannistraro '17 Yuri Namikawa '14 Mckenzie Wilson '14 Nicolette Obel '17 Katie Walker '14 Daniel Ron '17
University of Washington	Huskies	Karl Haelsig '14 Kris Thompson '16 Sam Parish '15	Sarah Redmond '15 Molly Utter '14 Cory Baranski '16
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	Adam Pokras '14 Chuck Eaton '17 Giacomo Paoletti '15 Madeline Kennedy '14	Ana-Melissa Kea '13 Katrina Berry '15 Kellie Yamada '16
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Grant Rickon '16 Ian Stokes '16 Keenan Chung '18 Stephen Long '17	Ginger Luckey '16 Kristina Miller '17 Natalie Davidson '16
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Andrea Luna '15 Jacob Spracher '15 Lee Dumaliang '17	Chloe Constants '14 Cady Johnson '16 Colin Voigt '15
Western Washington University	Vikings	Alexander Martin '15 Gabe Hill '16 Jake Fetterman '15	Benjamin Kaas '17 Anna Pieri '15 Rachael Mccrady '14
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Aggies	Jacob Hafemeister '16 Michael Sager '15 Ryan Murphy '15 Trey Hartman '15	Ryan Murphy '15 Sara Stafford '15 Kayla Sonnier '15 Rachel Mcmahon '15
Northwestern University	Wildcats	Jacob Bruce '16 Robert Johnston '15 Travis Cottle '15	Allison Park '17 Bill White '16 Hangyeol Lee '15 Hannah Goblirsch '17
University of California at San Diego	Tritons	John Olson '14 Joseph Mcardle '14 Nicolas Delfino '16	Elsa Felgar '16 Rosalie Winnik '15 Cheyenne Wright '16
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	Kate Andersen '15 Nicholas Weis '15 Samuel Heller '15	Mahmoud Sherif '15 Deanne Buckman '15 Kathryn Benight '15

Conditions — 03/01/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 76% · Pressure 1002.4 hPa

Temperature

59°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.4 kn

avg · max 10.7 kn

Gusts to 31.1 kn

From SE (125°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover64% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1002.4 hPa Rain0.11 in

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.09)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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