Stanford University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.87 (fleet 2.59) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 10–0 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (10 matches) the record is 10–0 against 8.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-01 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.83 | 5.83 | 10–0 | 8.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.4 | 17% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.1 | 2.53 |
| South Designate | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.8 | 1.94 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.2 | 2.52 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.4 | 3.98 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 6.6 | 3.26 |
| Pacific Coast Champs - 2 Div | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.4 | 3.98 |
| 35th Yale Women's Intersectional Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.8 | 3.14 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| PCCSC South 5 Designate | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.4 | 4.36 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 100% | — |
| Bryson | Skipper | B | 10 | 1.6 | 4.36 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.6 | 3.33 |
| The Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | A | 7 | 7.4 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
